Realizing an ASEAN Economic Community: Progress and Remaining Challenges

Launched as a political bloc and security pact in the aftermath of the Viet Nam War, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has evolved to embrace an ambitious economic agenda. Its latest project is to establish the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 31 December 2015. Fulfilling these commitments would promote predictability in ASEAN, as well as strengthen its credibility. But is ASEAN likely to meet this deadline? The blueprint for achieving the goal envisages the AEC standing on four pillars and meeting the deadline depends on progress on each of them. Each pillar presents a demanding set of challenges to be met before the AEC can be fully realized. We find that although ASEAN has come a long way toward realizing its goal, the challenges that remain suggest that the AEC will miss its approaching deadline. Accommodating AEC accords will not be easy when they require changes to domestic laws or even the national constitution. The flexibility that characterizes ASEAN cooperation, the celebrated "ASEAN way," may hand member states a convenient pretext for noncompliance. How to enforce the accords remains an issue. If the AEC is to be more than a display of political solidarity, ASEAN must find a way to give the commitments more teeth. The real test for the community, therefore, will lie in the years ahead

Liberalization of air transport services

Introduction Air transport, at least, the direct provision of the service, is currently excluded from the provisions of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) by a special annex. However the GATS also contains a provision that the Council for Trade in Services shall review periodically, and at least every five years, developments in the air transport sector and the operation of this Annex with a view to considering the possible further application of the Agreement in this sector. A review of the current treatment of air transport began in 2000 and participants were unable to reach agreement in December 2000 on how to proceed. A fundamental desire by many members to retain the current bilateral system of air traffic rights was an important consideration, although important technical issues revolved around the coverage of the exclusion. Although there does not appear to be much support for abolishing the annex, many members are interested in ways to improve the operation of this important sector (WTO 2001). While many of the recent changes in the sector, such as the formation of airline alliances, clearly have some important advantages, there are also significant concerns about issues such as market power at hub airports, and the asymmetries associated with some “open skies” agreements. This chapter outlines the features of the current arrangements for the regulation of trade and investment in the sector. It reviews some routes to reform, including the multilateral track and options for dealing with air transport in the GATS.Christopher Findlay and Deunden Nikomborira

Trans-Pacific Rebalancing: Thailand Case Study

Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Thailand has become highly dependent on export as the engine of economic recovery and growth. In 2008, the ratio of export to gross domestic product (GDP) was 76.5%. The global economic crisis triggered by the sub-prime loans debacle in the United States has prompted Thailand to rethink her export-led growth strategy. Year-on-year export growth plunged from a positive 22.7% in the third quarter of 2008 to a negative 7.75% in the fourth quarter and remained negative for another four quarters, leading to a negative growth of GDP for five consecutive quarters. This paper examines the options for external and internal economic rebalancing strategies for Thailand. External rebalancing will require Thailand to rely less on the US market for her exports. The paper thus examines the possibility of promoting greater regional trade by means of trade agreements and exchange rate coordination. As for internal rebalancing, the paper emphasizes the need to boost domestic public and private investment in terms of both quantity and quality in order to narrow the current savings' investment gap, bearing in mind the need to ensure fiscal sustainability. Finally, the paper examines broader rebalancing strategies that will help Thailand to become less dependent on exports. These include the need to (1) improve productivity by means of technological acquisition, innovation, and skills development; (2) increase economic efficiency by exposing the non-traded sectors, in particular the service sector, to greater competitive pressures; (3) deepen the production structure and create new dynamic industries; and (4) generate new growth poles

The Southeast Asian Economies in the Age of Discontent

This paper investigates the effects on and responses of five middle-income Southeast Asian economies to the current global environment of authoritarian populism, the retreat from economic liberalism, and the appeal of anti-globalization movements. While the political histories and institutional capabilities of the five – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – vary greatly, these economies have a history of at least moderately fast economic growth for extended periods, and of increasing regional and global economic integration. We argue that most of the factors behind the discontent with globalization in the rich economies are not present to the same degree in these countries, and that there has therefore been no major retreat from the economic policy settings that have underpinned their past economic success. However, there are no grounds for complacency. Economic growth is slowing in some of the countries, economic insecurity remains widespread, and the development of durable independent institutions has lagged economic growth

ASEAN Economic Integration through Trade and Foreign Direct Investment: Long-Term Challenges

This paper explores the long-term challenges for trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The region has emerged as an important production base for multinational corporations by joining East Asia's supply chains. While proceeding to establish the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by the end of 2015, ASEAN has also forged five major free trade agreements (FTAs) with its dialogue partners (People's Republic of China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Australia-New Zealand) and is currently negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). In addition, four ASEAN member states are working on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Econometric evidence suggests that (i) trade flows and inward FDI mutually reinforce each other, i.e., an increase in trade flows stimulates inward FDI and vice versa; (ii) a larger market attracts more inward FDI; (iii) FTAs tend to help stimulate inward FDI; and (iv) strong institutions, good physical infrastructure, and low costs of doing business are critical in boosting inward FDI. The paper concludes that in the long run ASEAN should aim to further integrate itself with the rest of Asia and the world (through a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific and an Asia-Europe FTA), while substantially deepening its internal integration (by moving from the AEC to a customs and economic union) and thereby maintaining ASEAN centrality