Would MERCOSUR’s Exports to the EU Profit from Trade Liberalisation? Some General Insights and a Simulation Study for Argentina

In this study, MERCOSUR\'s past exports to the EU under the protectionist environment of the period between 1988 and 1996 are examined and an attempt is made to determine MERCOSUR\'s exports\' growth potential in a liberalised EU market. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The influence of the macroeconomic environment on MERCOSUR\'s exports is examined in a dynamic panel analysis. A simulation study based on a quite comprehensive evaluation of EU trade barriers is performed for the Argentinean case in order to evaluate the impact of EU trade liberalisation.MERCOSUR-EU trade trade barriers sectoral study panel data

Road and Maritime Transport Costs: A Comparative Analysis of Spanish Exports to Poland and Turkey

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of maritime and road transport costs for Spanish exports to Poland and Turkey and investigate the different effects of these costs on international trade. First, we investigate the extent to which maritime and road transport costs depend on different factors such as unit values, distances, transport conditions, service structures, and service quality. Second, we analyze the relative importance of road and maritime transport costs as determinants of trade flows. The data on transport costs are drawn from a new database compiled from primary data sources. The main results of this investigation identify the central variables influencing road and maritime transportation costs: for both modes, transport conditions are strong determinants, whereas efficiency and service quality are more important for maritime transport costs, and geographical distance is more important for road transport. Road and maritime transport costs are important explanatory factors of exports and they seem to deter trade to a greater extent than road or maritime transit time when considered endogenously determined.Transport costs, transport mode, Spanish exports, international trade

Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur- European trade flows

This paper applies the gravity trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade, and trade potential following the agreements reached recently between both trade blocks. The model ist tested for a sample of 19 countries, the four formal members of Mercosur plus Chile and the fifteen members of the European Union. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, infrastructure, income differences and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows.Gravity equation, panel data, infrastructure, integration

The interplay of export supply and the real exchange rate. Evidence for Mercosur exports to the EU.

This paper applies a dynamic macroeconomic trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade. Looking at export supply of Mercosur countries (the four formal members plus Chile), the role of the real exchange rate, income and the income-absorption surplus or deficit are evaluated. Special emphasis is put on the reaction of exports with respect to changes of the real exchange rate. The model is tested for a sample of five countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) over the period of 1961-1996. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the common effect model. The variables income and income-absorption surplus are found to be important determinants of trade flows. The real exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on export supply in the long-term, whereas current and past changes in the real exchange rate seem to play no role for current total export trade in the short-and medium-term. Having this latter time horizon, it could be shown that Mercosur´s total exports react extremely parsimoniously and slowly with respect to changes in the real exchange rate. This phenomenon could be due to the large share of agricultural and forestry products in Mercosur´s exports.export supply, exchange rates, dynamic panel analysis

Explaining MERCOSUR sectoral exports to the EU: The role of economic and geographical distance

We used a variant of the gravity equation to classify products according to their sensitivity to geographical and economic distance. We argue that products which are highly sensitive to economic distance (proxied with absolute differences in per capita income) and barely sensitive to geographical distance are the best candidates for future trade between the European Union and Mercosur. We estimated our empirical model by applying panel data methodology to allow for trading pair specific effects. In the estimation we made use of two additional explanatory variables which are found to be relevant when explaining trade, namely, infrastructure and exchange rates. Our results support the view that different products have a different sensitivity to distance and highlight the importance of using disaggregated data when analysing international trade flows.gravity model, panel data, sectoral trade flows, distance

Would MERCOSUR´s Exports to the EU Profit from Trade Liberalisation? Some General Insights and a Simulation Study for Argentina

In this study, MERCOSUR's past exports to the EU under the protectionist environment of the period between 1988 and 1996 are examined and an attempt is made to determine MERCOSUR's exports' growth potential in a liberalised EU market. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The influence of the macroeconomic environment on MERCOSUR's exports is examined in a dynamic panel analysis. A simulation study based on a quite comprehensive evaluation of EU trade barriers is performed for the Argentinean case in order to evaluate the impact of EU trade liberalisation.MERCOSUR-EU trade, trade barriers, sectoral study, panel data

Are exports and imports of Chile cointegrated?

This study examines the long-run relationship between Chilean exports and imports during the 1975-2004 period using unit root tests and cointegration techniques that allow for endogenously determined structural breaks. The results indicate that there exists a long-run equilibrium between exports and imports in Chile, despite the balance-of-payments crisis of 1982-83. This finding implies that Chile\'s macroeconomic policies have been effective in the long-run and suggests that Chile is not in violation of its international budget constraint.Exports, imports, cointegration, structural break, Chile

Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Using a Static and Dynamic Gravity Equation

This paper evaluates the static effects of preferential agreements between several economic blocs and areas using a dynamic gravity equation. The main aim is to investigate whether regionalism has fostered intra or/and extra blocs international trade, taking into account the existence of heterogeneity over time and across countries and testing whether a dynamic model is preferred to the traditional static specification of the gravity model. This paper argues that the gravity model should be best estimated using Blundell and Bond’s (1998) system-GMM estimator. This procedure remedies some econometric problems such as regressor endogeneity, measurement error and weak instruments, and controls for timeinvariant country-specific effects such as distance or common language.Gravity equation, integration, international trade, regionalism

Modeling the dynamics of Spain\'s Relative Export Strength

In this paper we assess the current relevance of Ricardian theory. Relative prices, labor costs, and productivity are evaluated as determinants of a country’s international competitiveness at the industry level. Working with detailed data on unit values and with industry data on productivity, we empirically implement a MacDougall-type model for Spanish and French trade to Brazil, China, Japan, and the U.S.. The period under study is 1980 to 2001 and we distinguish in our analysis between homogenous, reference-priced, and differentiated goods. Our results indicate that Ricardian theory is currently only valid for explaining trade with developing countries while other factors are of importance for developed economies. Overall price competitiveness is of importance, but for differentiated goods, factors distinct from prices seem to determine export success.

Export Diversification, Externalities and Growth

It is frequently suggested that export diversification contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries. Horizontal export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from dynamic learning activities due to contacts to foreign purchasers and exposure to international competition. Vertical diversification out of primary into manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors prevalently do not exhibit strong spillovers. Thus, it is to be expected that both horizontal and vertical export diversification are positively correlated with economic growth. Yet there have been remarkably few empirical investigations into the link between export diversification and growth. This paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked to economic growth via externalities of learning-by-doing and learning-by-exporting fostered by competition in world markets. The diversification-led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function on the basis of annual time series data from Chile. Based on the theory of cointegration three types of statistical methodologies are used: the Johansen trace-test, a multivariate error-correction model and the dynamic OLS procedure. Given Chile\'s dramatic changes in economic policy, time series techniques considering structural breaks are applied. The estimation results suggest that export diversification plays an important role in economic growth.Export diversification, growth, Chile, cointegration