The Evolution of Overconfidence

Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health, to sports, business, and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, morale, resolve, persistence, or the credibility of bluffing, generating a self-fulfilling prophecy in which exaggerated confidence actually increases the probability of success. However, overconfidence also leads to faulty assessments, unrealistic expectations, and hazardous decisions, so it remains a puzzle how such a false belief could evolve or remain stable in a population of competing strategies that include accurate, unbiased beliefs. Here, we present an evolutionary model showing that, counter-intuitively, overconfidence maximizes individual fitness and populations will tend to become overconfident, as long as benefits from contested resources are sufficiently large compared to the cost of competition. In contrast, "rational" unbiased strategies are only stable under limited conditions. The fact that overconfident populations are evolutionarily stable in a wide range of environments may help to explain why overconfidence remains prevalent today, even if it contributes to hubris, market bubbles, financial collapses, policy failures, disasters, and costly wars.Comment: Supplementary Information include

Topological code Autotune

Many quantum systems are being investigated in the hope of building a large-scale quantum computer. All of these systems suffer from decoherence, resulting in errors during the execution of quantum gates. Quantum error correction enables reliable quantum computation given unreliable hardware. Unoptimized topological quantum error correction (TQEC), while still effective, performs very suboptimally, especially at low error rates. Hand optimizing the classical processing associated with a TQEC scheme for a specific system to achieve better error tolerance can be extremely laborious. We describe a tool Autotune capable of performing this optimization automatically, and give two highly distinct examples of its use and extreme outperformance of unoptimized TQEC. Autotune is designed to facilitate the precise study of real hardware running TQEC with every quantum gate having a realistic, physics-based error model.Comment: 13 pages, 17 figures, version accepted for publicatio

A CLIPS-based tool for aircraft pilot-vehicle interface design

The Pilot-Vehicle Interface of modern aircraft is the cognitive, sensory, and psychomotor link between the pilot, the avionics modules, and all other systems on board the aircraft. To assist pilot-vehicle interface designers, a C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) based tool was developed that allows design information to be stored in a table that can be modified by rules representing design knowledge. Developed for the Apple Macintosh, the tool allows users without any CLIPS programming experience to form simple rules using a point and click interface

On the Nature of Precursors in the Radio Pulsar Profiles

In the average profiles of several radio pulsars, the main pulse is accompanied by the preceding component. This so called precursor is known for its distinctive polarization, spectral, and fluctuation properties. Recent single-pulse observations hint that the sporadic activity at the extreme leading edge of the pulse may be prevalent in pulsars. We for the first time propose a physical mechanism of this phenomenon. It is based on the induced scattering of the main pulse radiation into the background. We show that the scattered component is directed approximately along the ambient magnetic field and, because of rotational aberration in the scattering region, appears in the pulse profile as a precursor to the main pulse. Our model naturally explains high linear polarization of the precursor emission, its spectral and fluctuation peculiarities as well as suggests a specific connection between the precursor and the main pulse at widely spaced frequencies. This is believed to stimulate multifrequency single-pulse studies of intensity modulation in different pulsars.Comment: 5 pages, no figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS Letter

Contamination

Soil contamination occurs when substances are added to soil, resulting in increases in concentrations above background or reference levels. Pollution may follow from contamination when contaminants are present in amounts that are detrimental to soil quality and become harmful to the environment or human health. Contamination can occur via a range of pathways including direct application to land and indirect application from atmospheric deposition. Contamination was identified by SEPA (2001) as a significant threat to soil quality in many parts of Scotland. Towers et al. (2006) identified four principal contamination threats to Scottish soils: acidification; eutrophication; metals; and pesticides. The Scottish Soil Framework (Scottish Government, 2009) set out the potential impact of these threats on the principal soil functions. Severe contamination can lead to “contaminated land” [as defined under Part IIA of the Environmental Protection Act (1990)]. This report does not consider the state and impacts of contaminated land on the wider environment in detail. For further information on contaminated land, see ‘Dealing with Land Contamination in Scotland’ (SEPA, 2009). This chapter considers the causes of soil contamination and their environmental and socio-economic impacts before going on to discuss the status of, and trends in, levels of contaminants in Scotland’s soils

Gene identification for the cblD defect of vitamin B12 metabolism

Background Vitamin B12 (cobalamin) is an essential cofactor in several metabolic pathways. Intracellular conversion of cobalamin to its two coenzymes, adenosylcobalamin in mitochondria and methylcobalamin in the cytoplasm, is necessary for the homeostasis of methylmalonic acid and homocysteine. Nine defects of intracellular cobalamin metabolism have been defined by means of somatic complementation analysis. One of these defects, the cblD defect, can cause isolated methylmalonic aciduria, isolated homocystinuria, or both. Affected persons present with multisystem clinical abnormalities, including developmental, hematologic, neurologic, and metabolic findings. The gene responsible for the cblD defect has not been identified. Methods We studied seven patients with the cblD defect, and skin fibroblasts from each were investigated in cell culture. Microcell-mediated chromosome transfer and refined genetic mapping were used to localize the responsible gene. This gene was transfected into cblD fibroblasts to test for the rescue of adenosylcobalamin and methylcobalamin synthesis. Results The cblD gene was localized to human chromosome 2q23.2, and a candidate gene, designated MMADHC (methylmalonic aciduria, cblD type, and homocystinuria), was identified in this region. Transfection of wild-type MMADHC rescued the cellular phenotype, and the functional importance of mutant alleles was shown by means of transfection with mutant constructs. The predicted MMADHC protein has sequence homology with a bacterial ATP-binding cassette transporter and contains a putative cobalamin binding motif and a putative mitochondrial targeting sequence. Conclusions Mutations in a gene we designated MMADHC are responsible for the cblD defect in vitamin B12 metabolism. Various mutations are associated with each of the three biochemical phenotypes of the disorder

Formation of Multipartite Entanglement Using Random Quantum Gates

The formation of multipartite quantum entanglement by repeated operation of one and two qubit gates is examined. The resulting entanglement is evaluated using two measures: the average bipartite entanglement and the Groverian measure. A comparison is made between two geometries of the quantum register: a one dimensional chain in which two-qubit gates apply only locally between nearest neighbors and a non-local geometry in which such gates may apply between any pair of qubits. More specifically, we use a combination of random single qubit rotations and a fixed two-qubit gate such as the controlled-phase gate. It is found that in the non-local geometry the entanglement is generated at a higher rate. In both geometries, the Groverian measure converges to its asymptotic value more slowly than the average bipartite entanglement. These results are expected to have implications on different proposed geometries of future quantum computers with local and non-local interactions between the qubits.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Systematically searching for and assessing the literature for self-management of chronic pain: A lay users' perspective

© 2014 Schofield et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. Background: The Engaging with older adults in the development of strategies for the self management of chronic pain (EOPIC) study aims to design and develop self management strategies to enable older adults to manage their own pain. Involving older adults in research into chronic pain management will better enable the identification and development of strategies that are more appropriate for their use, but how can perspectives really be utilised to the best possible outcomes?. Method. Seven older adults were recruited through a local advertising campaign to take part. We also invited participants from the local pain services, individuals who had been involved in earlier phase of the EOPIC study and a previous ESRC funded project. The group undertook library training and research skills training to facilitate searching of the literature and identified sources of material. A grading tool was developed using perceived essential criteria identified by the older adults and material was graded according to the criteria within this scale. Results: Fifty-seven resources from over twenty-eight sources were identified. These materials were identified as being easily accessible, readable and relevant. Many of the web based materials were not always easy to find or readily available so they were excluded by the participants. All but one were UK based. Forty-four items were identified as meeting the key criteria for inclusion in the study. This included five key categories as follows; books, internet, magazines, leaflets, CD's/Tapes. Conclusion: This project was able to identify a number of exemplars of self management material along with some general rules regarding the categories identified. We must point out that the materials identified were not age specific, were often locally developed and would need to be adapted to older adults with chronic pain. For copyright issues we have not included them in this paper. The key message is really related to the format rather than the content. However, the group acknowledge that these may vary according to the requirements of each individual older adult and therefore recommend the development of a leaflet to help others in their search for resources. This leaflet has been developed as part of Phase IV of the EOPIC study

Contamination of spacecraft by recontact of dumped liquids

Liquids partially freeze when dumped from spacecraft producing particles which are released into free space at various velocities. Recontact of these particles with the spacecraft is possible for specific particle sizes and velocities and, therefore, can become contamination for experiments within the spacecraft or released experiments as a result of waste and potable water dumped from Space Shuttle. An examination of dump characteristics was conducted on STS-29 using both on-board video records and ground based measurements. A preliminary analysis of data from this flight indicates particle velocities are in the range of 30 to 75 ft/sec and recontact is possible for limited particle sizes

Global control and fast solid-state donor electron spin quantum computing

We propose a scheme for quantum information processing based on donor electron spins in semiconductors, with an architecture complementary to the original Kane proposal. We show that a naive implementation of electron spin qubits provides only modest improvement over the Kane scheme, however through the introduction of global gate control we are able to take full advantage of the fast electron evolution timescales. We estimate that the latent clock speed is 100-1000 times that of the nuclear spin quantum computer with the ratio $T_{2}/T_{ops}$ approaching the $10^{6}$ level.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figure