Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling for multiple membership data in grouped attendance interventions

We develop a dependent Dirichlet process (DDP) model for repeated measures multiple membership (MM) data. This data structure arises in studies under which an intervention is delivered to each client through a sequence of elements which overlap with those of other clients on different occasions. Our interest concentrates on study designs for which the overlaps of sequences occur for clients who receive an intervention in a shared or grouped fashion whose memberships may change over multiple treatment events. Our motivating application focuses on evaluation of the effectiveness of a group therapy intervention with treatment delivered through a sequence of cognitive behavioral therapy session blocks, called modules. An open-enrollment protocol permits entry of clients at the beginning of any new module in a manner that may produce unique MM sequences across clients. We begin with a model that composes an addition of client and multiple membership module random effect terms, which are assumed independent. Our MM DDP model relaxes the assumption of conditionally independent client and module random effects by specifying a collection of random distributions for the client effect parameters that are indexed by the unique set of module attendances. We demonstrate how this construction facilitates examining heterogeneity in the relative effectiveness of group therapy modules over repeated measurement occasions.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOAS620 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Supply instability and oil market behavior

This paper analyzes the disruption in world oil markets which was triggered by the 1978-79 Iranian revolution. The resultant price rises are explored in the context of the behavior of the spot market and key OPEC countries. In particular, the economic and political roles of excess oil supply in the Persian Gulf nations are discussed. Conclusions for the likely future are presented, along with the implications for United States policy.NSF grant no. DAR 78-19044

A Five-year Spectroscopic and Photometric Campaign on the Prototypical alpha Cygni Variable and A-type Supergiant Star Deneb

Deneb is often considered the prototypical A-type supergiant, and is one of the visually most luminous stars in the Galaxy. A-type supergiants are potential extragalactic distance indicators, but the variability of these stars needs to be better characterized before this technique can be considered reliable. We analyzed 339 high resolution echelle spectra of Deneb obtained over the five-year span of 1997 through 2001 as well as 370 Stromgren photometric measurements obtained during the same time frame. Our spectroscopic analysis included dynamical spectra of the H-alpha profile, H-alpha equivalent widths, and radial velocities measured from Si II 6347, 6371. Time-series analysis reveals no obvious cyclic behavior that proceeds through multiple observing seasons, although we found a suspected 40 day period in two, non-consecutive observing seasons. Some correlations are found between photometric and radial velocity data sets, and suggest radial pulsations at two epochs. No correlation is found between the variability of the H-alpha profiles and that of the radial velocities or the photometry. Lucy (1976) found evidence that Deneb was a long period single-lined spectroscopic binary star, but our data set shows no evidence for radial velocity variations caused by a binary companion.Comment: 49 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journa

Structural Design and Analysis of the Upper Pressure Shell Section of a Composite Crew Module

This paper presents the results of the structural design and analysis of the upper pressure shell section of a carbon composite demonstration structure for the Composite Crew Module (CCM) Project. The project is managed by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center with participants from eight NASA Centers, the Air Force Research Laboratory, and multiple aerospace contractors including ATK/Swales, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Collier Research Corporation, Genesis Engineering, and Janicki Industries. The paper discusses details of the upper pressure shell section design of the CCM and presents the structural analysis results using the HyperSizer structural sizing software and the MSC Nastran finite element analysis software. The HyperSizer results showed that the controlling load case driving most of the sizing in the upper pressure shell section was the internal pressure load case. The regions around the cutouts were controlled by internal pressure and the main parachute load cases. The global finite element analysis results showed that the majority of the elements of the CCM had a positive margin of safety with the exception of a few hot spots around the cutouts. These hot spots are currently being investigated with a more detailed analysis. Local finite element models of the Low Impact Docking System (LIDS) interface ring and the forward bay gussets with greater mesh fidelity were created for local sizing and analysis. The sizing of the LIDS interface ring was driven by the drogue parachute loads, Trans-Lunar Insertion (TLI) loads, and internal pressure. The drogue parachute loads controlled the sizing of the gusset cap on the drogue gusset and TLI loads controlled the sizing of the other five gusset caps. The main parachute loads controlled the sizing of the lower ends of the gusset caps on the main parachute fittings. The results showed that the gusset web/pressure shell and gusset web/gusset cap interfaces bonded using Pi-preform joints had local hot spots in the Pi-preform termination regions. These regions require a detailed three-dimensional analysis, which is currently being performed, to accurately address the load distribution near the Pi-preform termination in the upper and lower gusset caps

The potential impact of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) on fisheries

The commercial development of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) operations will involve some environmental perturbations for which there is no precedent experience. The pumping of very large volumes of warm surface water and cold deep water and its subsequent discharge will result in the impingement, entrainment, and redistribution of biota. Additional stresses to biota will be caused by biocide usage and temperature depressions. However, the artificial upwelling of nutrients associated with the pumping of cold deep water, and the artificial reef created by an OTEC plant may have positive effects on the local environment. Although more detailed information is needed to assess the net effect of an OTEC operation on fisheries, certain assumptions and calculations are made supporting the conclusion that the potential risk to fisheries is not significant enough to deter the early development of IDEe. It will be necessary to monitor a commercial-scale plant in order to remove many of the remaining uncertainties. (PDF file contains 39 pages.

Aircraft Configured for Flight in an Atmosphere Having Low Density

An aircraft is configured for flight in an atmosphere having a low density. The aircraft includes a fuselage, a pair of wings, and a rear stabilizer. The pair of wings extends from the fuselage in opposition to one another. The rear stabilizer extends from the fuselage in spaced relationship to the pair of wings. The fuselage, the wings, and the rear stabilizer each present an upper surface opposing a lower surface. The upper and lower surfaces have X, Y, and Z coordinates that are configured for flight in an atmosphere having low density

Factors Determining Mortality of Adult Chaparral Shrubs in an Extreme Drought Year in California

We measured dieback and mortality in a chaparral shrub community at a chaparral/desert ecotone following four years of below-average rainfall. Ecotones are important systems in which to examine plant and community responses to extreme and prolonged drought conditions and the potential impact of global change on plant distributions and community composition. Following a particularly severe drought year, dieback and mortality were documented for seven co-dominant shrub species. We examined whether mortality was related to species ecology, leaf traits, or water relations. Dieback and mortality were greatest in two non-sprouting species. These species also had high xylem cavitation resistance and low specific leaf area compared to several sprouting species. Among two sprouting congeners, mortality was greater in the more shallowly rooted species, even though this species was more cavitation resistant. Across all species, those that were more resistant to cavitation had greater mortality. Evidently, high resistance to xylem cavitation does not prevent adult plant mortality at chaparral/desert ecotones. A series of extreme drought years could preferentially reduce or eliminate non-sprouting species from mixed chaparral populations, causing a shift in community structure and contributing to desertification

Simonsenia aveniformis sp nov (Bacillariophyceae), molecular phylogeny and systematics of the genus, and a new type of canal raphe system

The genus Simonsenia is reviewed and S. aveniformis described as new for science by light and electron microscopy. The new species originated from estuarine environments in southern Iberia (Atlantic coast) and was isolated into culture. In LM, Simonsenia resembles Nitzschia, with bridges (fibulae) beneath the raphe, which is marginal. It is only electron microscope (EM) examination that reveals the true structure of the raphe system, which consists of a raphe canal raised on a keel (wing), supported by rib like braces (fenestral bars) and tube-like portulae; between the portulae the keel is perforated by open windows (fenestrae). Based on the presence of portulae and a fenestrated keel, Simonsenia has been proposed to be intermediate between Bacillariaceae and Surirellaceae. However, an rbcL phylogeny revealed that Simonsenia belongs firmly in the Bacillariaceae, with which it shares a similar chloroplast arrangement, rather than in the Surirellaceae. Lack of homology between the surirelloid and simonsenioid keels is reflected in subtle differences in the morphology and ontogeny of the portulae and fenestrae. The diversity of Simonsenia has probably been underestimated, particularly in the marine environment.Polish National Science Centre in Cracow within the Maestro program [N 2012/04/A/ST10/00544]; Sciences and Technologies Foundation-FCT (Portugal) [SFRH/BD/62405/2009]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Predominance of Ehrlichia ewingii in Missouri dogs

To investigate the species distribution of Ehrlichia present in Missouri dogs, we tested 78 dogs suspected of having acute ehrlichiosis and 10 healthy dogs. Blood from each dog was screened with a broad-range 16S rRNA gene PCR assay that detects known pathogenic species of Ehrlichia and Anaplasma. The species was determined by using species-specific PCR assays and nucleotide sequencing. Ehrlichia antibody testing was performed by using an indirect immunofluorescence assay with Ehrlichia chaffeensis as the antigenic substrate. The broad-range assay detected Ehrlichia or Anaplasma DNA in 20 (26%) of the symptomatic dogs and 2 (20%) of the asymptomatic dogs. E. ewingii accounted for 20 (91%), and E. chaffeensis accounted for 1 (5%) of the positives. Anaplasma phagocytophilum DNA was detected in one dog, and the sequences of regions of the 16S rRNA gene and the groESL operon amplified from the blood of this dog matched the published sequences of this organism. Antibodies reactive with E. chaffeensis were detected in 14 (67%) of the 21 PCR-positive dogs and in 12 (19%) of the 64 PCR-negative dogs. Combining the results of PCR and serology indicated that 33 (39%) of 85 evaluable dogs had evidence of past or current Ehrlichia infection. We conclude that E. ewingii is the predominant etiologic agent of canine ehrlichiosis in the areas of Missouri included in this survey. E. canis, a widely recognized agent of canine ehrlichiosis, was not detected in any animal. The finding of E. ewingii in asymptomatic dogs suggests that dogs could be a reservoir for this Ehrlichia species