Adaptive Minnesota Prior for High-Dimensional Vector Autoregressions

We develop a novel, highly scalable estimation method for large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs) and employ it to introduce an "adaptive" version of the Minnesota prior. This flexible prior structure allows each coeffcient of the VAR to have its own shrinkage intensity, which is treated as an additional parameter and estimated from the data. Most importantly, our estimation procedure does not rely on computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, making it suitable for high-dimensional VARs with more predictors that observations. We use a Monte Carlo study to demonstrate the accuracy and computational gains of our approach. We further illustrate the forecasting performance of our new approach by applying it to a quarterly macroeconomic dataset, and find that it forecasts better than both factor models and other existing BVAR methods

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

A Nested Atlantic-Mediterranean Sea General Circulation Model for Operational Forecasting.

Abstract. A new numerical general circulation ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea has been implemented nested within an Atlantic general circulation model within the framework of the Marine Environment and Security for the European Area project (MERSEA, Desaubies, 2006). A 4-year twin experiment was carried out from January 2004 to December 2007 with two different models to evaluate the impact on the Mediterranean Sea circulation of open lateral boundary conditions in the Atlantic Ocean. One model considers a closed lateral boundary in a large Atlantic box and the other is nested in the same box in a global ocean circulation model. Impact was observed comparing the two simulations with independent observations: ARGO for temperature and salinity profiles and tide gauges and along-track satellite observations for the sea surface height. The improvement in the nested Atlantic-Mediterranean model with respect to the closed one is particularly evident in the salinity characteristics of the Modified Atlantic Water and in the Mediterranean sea level seasonal variability

Variational assimilation of Lagrangian trajectories in the Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System

Abstract. A novel method for three-dimensional variational assimilation of Lagrangian data with a primitive-equation ocean model is proposed. The assimilation scheme was implemented in the Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System and evaluated for a 4-month period. Four experiments were designed to assess the impact of trajectory assimilation on the model output, i.e. the sea-surface height, velocity, temperature and salinity fields. It was found from the drifter and Argo trajectory assimilation experiment that the forecast skill of surface-drifter trajectories improved by 15 %, that of intermediate-depth float trajectories by 20 %, and moreover, that the forecasted sea-surface height fields improved locally by 5 % compared to satellite data, while the quality of the temperature and salinity fields remained at previous levels. In conclusion, the addition of Lagrangian trajectory assimilation proved to reduce the uncertainties in the model fields, thus yielding a higher accuracy of the ocean forecasts

Au(III)-Proline derivatives exhibiting selective antiproliferative activity against HepG2/SB3 apoptosis-resistant cancer cells

This paper deals with the combination of a proline-based moiety with biologically active gold centers in the oxidation states +1 and +3. In particular, six Au(i)/(iii)-proline dithiocarbamato (DTC) complexes with general formulae [AuI2(DTC)(2)] and [(AuX2)-X-III(DTC)] (X = Cl, Br) are reported here. After the synthesis of the ligand and the complexes, all derivatives were characterized via several techniques and tested for their stability in DMSO/water media. This study was focused on the demonstration of a peculiar behavior of Au(iii)-DTC species in solution. Finally, the complexes were screened for their antiproliferative activity against 2 human cancer cell lines, namely HepG2 and HepG2/SB3, taken as models of hepatocellular carcinoma. The latter, chosen for its aggressiveness due to the upregulation of the anti-apoptotic protein SerpinB3, was selectively inhibited in terms of growth by some Au(iii)-DTC complexes

Data-driven analysis of regional brain metabolism in behavioral frontotemporal dementia and late-onset primary psychiatric diseases with frontal lobe syndrome: A PET/MRI study

Late-onset primary psychiatric disease (PPD) and behavioral frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) present with a similar frontal lobe syndrome. We compare brain glucose metabolism in bvFTD and late-onset PPD and investigate the metabolic correlates of cognitive and behavioral disturbances through FDG-PET/MRI. We studied 37 bvFTD and 20 late-onset PPD with a mean clinical follow-up of three years. At baseline evaluation, metabolism of the dorsolateral, ventrolateral, orbitofrontal regions and caudate could classify the patients with a diagnostic accuracy of 91% (95% CI: 0.81–0.98%). 45% of PPD showed low-grade hypometabolism in the anterior cingulate and/or parietal regions. Frontal lobe metabolism was normal in 32% of genetic bvFTD and bvFTD with motor neuron signs. Hypometabolism of the frontal and caudate regions could help in distinguishing bvFTD from PPD, except in cases with motor neuron signs and/or genetic bvFTD for which brain metabolism may be less informative