Case study for the assessment of the biogeophysical effects of a potential afforestation in Europe

BACKGROUND: A regional-scale sensitivity study has been carried out to investigate the climatic effects of forest cover change in Europe. Applying REMO (regional climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), the projected temperature and precipitation tendencies have been analysed for summer, based on the results of the A2 IPCC-SRES emission scenario simulation. For the end of the 21st century it has been studied, whether the assumed forest cover increase could reduce the effects of the greenhouse gas concentration change. RESULTS: Based on the simulation results, biogeophysical effects of the hypothetic potential afforestation may lead to cooler and moister conditions during summer in most parts of the temperate zone. The largest relative effects of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine, which is 15-20% of the climate change signal for temperature and more than 50% for precipitation. In northern Germany and France, potential afforestation may enhance the effects of emission change, resulting in more severe heavy precipitation events. The probability of dry days and warm temperature extremes would decrease. CONCLUSIONS: Large contiguous forest blocks can have distinctive biogeophysical effect on the climate on regional and local scale. In certain regions of the temperate zone, climate change signal due to greenhouse gas emission can be reduced by afforestation due to the dominant evaporative cooling effect during summer. Results of this case study with a hypothetical land cover change can contribute to the assessment of the role of forests in adapting to climate change. Thus they can build an important basis of the future forest policy

Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: evaluation of uncertainties

International audienceThe ERA15 Reanalysis (1979-1993) has been dynamically downscaled over Central Europe using 4 different regional climate models. The regional simulations were analysed with respect to 2m temperature and total precipitation, the main input parameters for hydrological applications. Model results were validated against three reference data sets (ERA15, CRU, DWD) and uncertainty ranges were derived. For mean annual 2 m temperature over Germany, the simulation bias lies between -1.1°C and +0.9°C depending on the combination of model and reference data set. The bias of mean annual precipitation varies between -31 and +108 mm/year. Differences between RCM results are of the same magnitude as differences between the reference data sets

Interactive coupling of regional atmosphere with biosphere in the new generation regional climate system model REMO-iMOVE

The main objective of this study is the coupling of the regional climate model REMO with a new land surface scheme including dynamic vegetation phenology, and the evaluation of the new model version called REMO with interactive MOsaic-based VEgetation: REMO-iMOVE. First, we focus on the documentation of the technical aspects of the new model constituents and the coupling mechanism. The representation of vegetation in iMOVE is based on plant functional types (PFTs). Their geographical distribution is prescribed to the model which can be derived from different land surface data sets. Here, the PFT distribution is derived from the GLOBCOVER 2000 data set which is available on 1 km × 1 km horizontal resolution. Plant physiological processes like photosynthesis, respiration and transpiration are incorporated into the model. The vegetation modules are fully coupled to atmosphere and soil. In this way, plant physiological activity is directly driven by atmospheric and soil conditions at the model time step (two minutes to some seconds). In turn, the vegetation processes and properties influence the exchange of substances, energy and momentum between land and atmosphere. With the new coupled regional model system, dynamic feedbacks between vegetation, soil and atmosphere are represented at regional to local scale. In the evaluation part, we compare simulation results of REMO-iMOVE and of the reference version REMO2009 to multiple observation data sets of temperature, precipitation, latent heat flux, leaf area index and net primary production, in order to investigate the sensitivity of the regional model to the new land surface scheme and to evaluate the performance of both model versions. Simulations for the regional model domain Europe on a horizontal resolution of 0.44° had been carried out for the time period 1995–2005, forced with ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses data as lateral boundary conditions. REMO-iMOVE is able to simulate the European climate with the same quality as the parent model REMO2009. Differences in near-surface climate parameters can be restricted to some regions and are mainly related to the new representation of vegetation phenology. The seasonal and interannual variations in growth and senescence of vegetation are captured by the model. The net primary productivity lies in the range of observed values for most European regions. This study reveals the need for implementing vertical soil water dynamics in order to differentiate the access of plants to water due to different rooting depths. This gets especially important if the model will be used in dynamic vegetation studies

Interactive coupling of regional atmosphere with biosphere in the new generation regional climate system model REMO-iMOVE

The main objective of this study is the coupling of the regional climate model REMO with a new land surface scheme including dynamic vegetation phenology, and the evaluation of the new model version called REMO with interactive MOsaic-based VEgetation: REMO-iMOVE. First, we focus on the documentation of the technical aspects of the new model constituents and the coupling mechanism. The representation of vegetation in iMOVE is based on plant functional types (PFTs). Their geographical distribution is prescribed to the model which can be derived from different land surface data sets. Here, the PFT distribution is derived from the GLOBCOVER 2000 data set which is available on 1 km × 1 km horizontal resolution. Plant physiological processes like photosynthesis, respiration and transpiration are incorporated into the model. The vegetation modules are fully coupled to atmosphere and soil. In this way, plant physiological activity is directly driven by atmospheric and soil conditions at the model time step (two minutes to some seconds). In turn, the vegetation processes and properties influence the exchange of substances, energy and momentum between land and atmosphere. With the new coupled regional model system, dynamic feedbacks between vegetation, soil and atmosphere are represented at regional to local scale. In the evaluation part, we compare simulation results of REMO-iMOVE and of the reference version REMO2009 to multiple observation data sets of temperature, precipitation, latent heat flux, leaf area index and net primary production, in order to investigate the sensitivity of the regional model to the new land surface scheme and to evaluate the performance of both model versions. Simulations for the regional model domain Europe on a horizontal resolution of 0.44° had been carried out for the time period 1995–2005, forced with ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses data as lateral boundary conditions. REMO-iMOVE is able to simulate the European climate with the same quality as the parent model REMO2009. Differences in near-surface climate parameters can be restricted to some regions and are mainly related to the new representation of vegetation phenology. The seasonal and interannual variations in growth and senescence of vegetation are captured by the model. The net primary productivity lies in the range of observed values for most European regions. This study reveals the need for implementing vertical soil water dynamics in order to differentiate the access of plants to water due to different rooting depths. This gets especially important if the model will be used in dynamic vegetation studies

Diagnostik arbeitsbedingter Erkrankungen und arbeitsmedizinisch-diagnostische Tabellen

Eine ganze Reihe von beruflichen Belastungen und ungünstigen Arbeitsbedingungen kann zu zahlreichen berufsbedingten Erkrankungen und Beschwerden führen, von denen nur ein kleiner Teil als Berufskrankheit oder Arbeitsunfall anerkannt wird. Der größere, versicherungsrechtlich nicht anerkannte Teil gilt als "arbeitsbedingte Erkrankung" im engeren Sinne. Es sind Erkrankungen und Beschwerden, die beruflich verursacht, teilweise beruflich verursacht oder in ihrer Dynamik beeinflusst werden. Neue Technologien und andere Arbeitsanforderungen führen zu einem geänderten Spektrum und zur Zunahme der arbeitsbedingten Erkrankungen und Beschwerden. Während einzelne Berufskrankheiten aufgrund der Präventionsmaßnahmen seltener geworden sind, verbergen sich viele arbeitsbedingte Erkrankungen im allgemeinen Krankheitsspektrum der Bevölkerung und sind bei der hausärztlichen und klinischen Betreuung zunehmend zu berücksichtigen. Unsere "Diagnostik arbeitsbedingter Erkrankungen und arbeitsmedizinisch-diagnostische Tabellen" gehen einerseits von allgemeinen und speziellen Krankheitsbildern aus und geben eine Übersicht über die möglichen Ursachen. Andererseits werden bestimmte Gefährdungen und die möglichen Beschwerden und Erkrankungen aufgeführt. Bei ausgewählten Erkrankungen werden Hinweise zur spezifischen Diagnostik und Differentialdiagnostik gegeben. Die Darstellungen orientieren sich daher auch am allgemeinen Krankheitsspektrum und sind nicht nur auf die anerkannten Berufskrankheiten eingeengt. Unsere Ausführungen und Tabellen, die in Kooperation mit den jeweiligen Fachvertretern der Medizinischen Fakultät in Homburg erarbeitet wurden, umfassen arbeitsbedingte Atemwegs- und Lungenkrankheiten, Herz- und Kreislaufkrankheiten, Karzinome, Leberkrankheiten, neurologische Krankheiten, Nieren- und Harnwegserkrankungen, ophthalmologische Krankheiten, orthopädisch-chirurgische Erkrankungen der Bewegungsorgane, sensibilisierende Arbeitsstoffe, Virus- und Infektionskrankheiten und verschiedene aktuelle Kurzinformationen. Aufgrund unserer besonderen poliklinischen Tätigkeit haben wir über Jahrzehnte Informationen über arbeitsbedingte Erkrankungen gesammelt und im Jahr 2000 in einer ersten Form zusammen gestellt und im Internet veröffentlicht. Die jetzige Fassung 2007 gehört längst zur Pflichtlektüre für unsere Studierenden und für die Facharztweiterbildung. Die Aktualisierung und Ergänzung ist laufend vorgesehen

The role of forests in mitigating climate change - A case study for Europe

A regional-scale case study has been carried out to assess the possible climatic benefits of forest cover increase in Europe. For the end of the 21st century (2071-2090) it has been investigated, whether the projected climate change could be reduced assuming potential afforestation of the continent. The magnitude of the biogeophysical effects of enhanced forest cover on temperature and precipitation means and extremes have been analyzed relative to the magnitude of the climate change signal applying the regional climate model REMO. The simulation results indicate that in the largest part of the temperate zone potential afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through cooler and moister conditions, thus could contribute to the mitigation of the projected climate change for the entire summer period. The largest relative effect of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine. Here, the projected precipitation decrease could be fully compensated, the temperature increase could be relieved by up to 0.5 degrees C, and the probability of extremely warm and dry days could be reduced. Results can help to identify the areas, where forest cover increase could be the most effective from climatic point of view. Thus they can build an important basis of the future adaptation strategies and forest policy