Simple estimators of the intensity of seasonal occurrence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Edwards's method is a widely used approach for fitting a sine curve to a time-series of monthly frequencies. From this fitted curve, estimates of the seasonal intensity of occurrence (i.e., peak-to-low ratio of the fitted curve) can be generated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We discuss various approaches to the estimation of seasonal intensity assuming Edwards's periodic model, including maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), least squares, weighted least squares, and a new closed-form estimator based on a second-order moment statistic and non-transformed data. Through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study, we compare the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators discussed in this paper. Finally, all estimators and confidence interval procedures discussed are compared in a re-analysis of data on the seasonality of monocytic leukemia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that Edwards's estimator is substantially biased, particularly for small numbers of events and very large or small amounts of seasonality. For the common setting of rare events and moderate seasonality, the new estimator proposed in this paper yields less finite sample bias and better mean squared error than either the MLE or weighted least squares. For large studies and strong seasonality, MLE or weighted least squares appears to be the optimal analytic method among those considered.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Edwards's estimator of the seasonal relative risk can exhibit substantial finite sample bias. The alternative estimators considered in this paper should be preferred.</p

Association between winter season and risk of death from cardiovascular diseases: a study in more than half a million inpatients in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND: Seasonal associations of cardiovascular mortality have been noted in most populations of European origin years ago, but are not well evaluated in Asian populations recently. METHODS: Utilizing the electronic Hospitalization Summary Reports (HSRs) from 32 top-ranked hospitals in Beijing, China, we evaluated the association between winter season and the risk of cardiovascular death among hospitalized individuals. General additive models and logistic regression models were adjusted for confounding factors. RESULTS: Older patients who were admitted to the hospital in the winter months (January, February, November and December) had a death risk that was increased by approximately 30% to 50% (P < 0.01) over those who were admitted in May. However, younger patients did not seem to experience the same seasonal variations in death risk. The excess winter deaths among older patients were associated with ischemic heart disease (RR = 1.22; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.31), pulmonary heart disease (RR = 1.42; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.83), cardiac arrhythmias (RR = 1.67; 95% CI 1.36 to 2.05), heart failure (RR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.54), ischemic stroke (RR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.17 to 1.43), and other cerebrovascular diseases (RR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.40 to 2.25). The risks of mortality were higher in winter months than in the month of May, regardless of the presence or absence of respiratory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Winter season was associated with a substantially increased risk of cardiovascular death among older Chinese cardiovascular inpatients

Inhibitory Effect of Retinoic Acid on Proliferation, Maturation and Tryptase Level in Human Leukemic Mast Cells (HMC-1)

Mast cells play an important role in allergic inflammation by releasing histamine, tryptase and several inflammatory cytokines. Human leukemic mast cells (HMC-1) have been used to study mast cell mediators and their role in inflammatory mechanisms. HMC-1 contain and release several inflammatory mediators, of which the proteolytic enzyme tryptase is most characteristic. Retinoids, including retinoic acid, are naturally occurring and synthetic derivatives of vitamin A. All-trans-retinoic (ATRA) acid had been previously reported to inhibit cell proliferation, differentiation and apoptosis. In the present study, we investigated the effect of ATRA on the proliferation and secretion of tryptase in HMC-1. HMC-1 were treated with ATRA at 10-4M, 10-5M or 10-6M for 3,4 or 5 days in culture. Control HMC-1 were treated with equal amount of culture medium only. ATRA decreased the number of HMC-1 as compared to the control group. The same treatment for 3, 4 or 5 days also decreased intracellular tryptase levels. These results indicate that ATRA significantly inhibits both proliferation and growth as shown by the decreased intracellular tryptase levels in HMC-1. ATRA may be a useful agent in the treatment of mast cell proliferative disorders. </jats:p