Monetary policy in the Franc zone: Country-level credit policy

This extract is taken from the author's original manuscript and has not been reviewed or edited. The definitive version of this extract may be found in the work Macroeconomic Policy in the Franc Zone edited by D Fielding which can be purchased from www.palgrave.co

Does Television Terrify Tourists? Effects of US Television News on Demand for Tourism in Israel

In this paper we analyze a time series measuring the monthly flow of US tourists to Israel over the period 1997-2006. We pay particular attention to the response of tourists to variations in the intensity the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, drawing a distinction between actual conflict intensity and the intensity with which the conflict is reported in the US television media. We find that different dimensions of the conflict affect tourists in different ways. For some (but not all) dimensions of the conflict, reported intensity matters more than actual intensity

Gov-aargh-nance: "Even Criminals Need Law and Order"

We present a theoretical model postulating that the relationship between crime and governance is "hump-shaped" rather than linearly decreasing. State failure, anarchy and a lack of infrastructure are not conducive for the establishment of any business. This includes illegal businesses, as criminals need protection and markets to convert loot into consumables. At the bottom end of the spectrum, therefore, both legal business and criminal gangs benefit from improved governance, especially when this is delivered informally. With significant improvements in formal governance criminal activities decline. We use data from the International Maritime Bureau to create a new dataset on piracy and find strong and consistent support for this non-linear relationship. The occurrence, persistence and intensity of small-scale maritime crime are well approximated by a quadratic relationship with governance quality. Organised crime benefits from corrupt yet effective bureaucrats, and informally governed areas within countries.Governance, Crime, Piracy, Informal Institutions, Law enforcement

GOV-AARGH-NANCE – “EVEN CRIMINALS NEED LAW AND ORDER”

We present a theoretical model postulating that the relationship between crime and governance is “hump-shaped”, rather than linearly decreasing, when criminals need access to markets. State collapse, violent conflict and a lack of infrastructure are not conducive for the establishment of any business, legal or illegal. At the bottom end of the spectrum, therefore, criminal gangs benefit from improved governance, especially when this is delivered informally. With significant improvements in formal governance criminal activities decline. We use data from the International Maritime Bureau to create a new dataset on piracy and find strong and consistent support for this non-linear relationship.Governance; Crime; Piracy; Informal governance; Law enforcement

Gov-aargh-nance - "even criminals need law and order"

We present a theoretical model postulating that the relationship between crime and governance is "hump-shaped" rather than linearly decreasing. State failure, anarchy and a lack of infrastructure are not conducive for the establishment of any business. This includes illegal businesses, as criminals need protection and markets to convert loot into consumables. At the bottom end of the spectrum, therefore, both legal business and criminal gangs benefit from improved governance, especially when this is delivered informally. With significant improvements in formal governance criminal activities decline. We use data from the International Maritime Bureau to create a new dataset on piracy and find strong and consistent support for this non-linear relationship. The occurrence, persistence and intensity of small-scale maritime crime are well approximated by a quadratic relationship with governance quality. Organised crime benefits from corrupt yet effective bureaucrats, and informally governed areas within countries.

Gov-aargh-nance: "Even Criminals Need Law and Order"

We present a theoretical model postulating that the relationship between crime and governance is "hump-shaped" rather than linearly decreasing. State failure, anarchy and a lack of infrastructure are not conducive for the establishment of any business. This includes illegal businesses, as criminals need protection and markets to convert loot into consumables. At the bottom end of the spectrum, therefore, both legal business and criminal gangs benefit from improved governance, especially when this is delivered informally. With significant improvements in formal governance criminal activities decline. We use data from the International Maritime Bureau to create a new dataset on piracy and find strong and consistent support for this non-linear relationship. The occurrence, persistence and intensity of small-scale maritime crime are well approximated by a quadratic relationship with governance quality. Organised crime benefits from corrupt yet effective bureaucrats, and informally governed areas within countries

Barrgh-gaining with Somali Pirates

Ransoms paid to Somali pirates are drifting upward and negotiation times are increasing, yet there is huge variation in bargaining outcomes across shipowners. We use a unique dataset of 179 Somali hijackings, and an underlying theoretical model of the bargaining process based on detailed interviews with ransom negotiators, to analyze the empirical determinants of ransom amounts and negotiation lengths. We find that ransom amount and negotiation length depend on the observable characteristics of both pirates and ships and on the "reference ransom" established by previous ransom payments for a specific ship type. International naval enforcement efforts have driven up ransom amounts. We also observe a "hump-shape" in ransoms, with relatively low ransoms being paid following both short and very long negotiations, and the highest ransoms paid following intermediate length negotiations

Radiocarbon dating and the Naqada relative chronology

The Naqada relative chronology provides the main cultural framework for the Predynastic period of ancient Egypt. It was devised in the late nineteenth century by Flinders Petrie to improve understanding of the prehistoric origins of the Egyptian state. Petrie's approach became widely known and formed the basis for the development of seriation. In this study, we test the reliability of the Naqada relative chronology as a dating tool against all the relevant radiocarbon information. The results show that the main blocks of the relative sequence do form a true chronology, but also indicate that the system is much less reliable at the level of individual phases. We discuss the nature of the discrepancies and the broader influence of the relative chronology on current understanding of Early Egypt

Mirror Mirror on the Wall, Which Is the Most Convincing of Them All? Exploring Anti-Domestic Violence Posters.

Although domestic abuse of women by men has received significant media, police, and research attention, domestic violence directed toward men has been marginalized across the board and is still rarely treated seriously. The purpose of this research, then, is to examine and compare different anti-domestic violence messages in which the abuser's gender is not always clear. In Study 1, 200 U.K. participants (100 females and 100 males, aged 18-67, M = 28.98, SD = 9.613) evaluated posters that varied across three levels; in that the subject (male or female) was depicted as being silenced, bruised, or experiencing live abuse. The results showed that the posters featuring female victims were all rated as more effective than posters showing male victims. In Study 2, 140 different U.K. participants (95 females; 45 males) aged 18 to 59 (M = 27.27, SD = 10.662) evaluated the cartoon facial images of Disney characters who had been altered to look like victims of violence and real-life corresponding photos of human models. The results showed that the realistic posters were found to be more believable, emotional, and effective than the cartoons. The implications of such perceptions are discussed

Recruitment of older adults to three preventative lifestyle improvement studies

YesBackground: Recruiting isolated older adults to clinical trials is complex, time-consuming and difficult. Previous studies have suggested querying existing databases to identify appropriate potential participants. We aim to compare recruitment techniques (general practitioner (GP) mail-outs, community engagement and clinician referrals) used in three randomised controlled trial (RCT) studies assessing the feasibility or effectiveness of two preventative interventions in isolated older adults (the Lifestyle Matters and Putting Life In Years interventions). Methods: During the three studies (the Lifestyle Matters feasibility study, the Lifestyle Matters RCT, the Putting Life In Years RCT) data were collected about how participants were recruited. The number of letters sent by GP surgeries for each study was recorded. In the Lifestyle Matters RCT, we qualitatively interviewed participants and intervention facilitators at 6 months post randomisation to seek their thoughts on the recruitment process. Results: Referrals were planned to be the main source of recruitment in the Lifestyle Matters feasibility study, but due to a lack of engagement from district nurses, community engagement was the main source of recruitment. District nurse referrals and community engagement were also utilised in the Lifestyle Matters and Putting Life In Years RCTs; both mechanisms yielded few participants. GP mail-outs were the main source of recruitment in both the RCTs, but of those contacted, recruiting yield was low (< 3%). Facilitators of the Lifestyle Matters intervention questioned whether the most appropriate individuals had been recruited. Participants recommended that direct contact with health professionals would be the most beneficial way to recruit. Conclusions: Recruitment to the Lifestyle Matters RCT did not mirror recruitment to the feasibility study of the same intervention. Direct district nurse referrals were not effective at recruiting participants. The majority of participants were recruited via GP mail-outs, which may have led to isolated individuals not being recruited to the trials. Further research is required into alternative recruitment techniques, including respondent-driven sampling plus mechanisms which will promote health care professionals to recruit vulnerable populations to research.The Lifestyle Matters RCT was funded by the Medical Research Council (grant number G1001406); Sheffield Health and Social Research Consortium; National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme (project number 09/ 3004/01