Recurrence rates for SIDS - the importance of risk stratification

Objective: To investigate the importance of stratification by risk factors in computing the probability of a second SIDS in a family. Design: Simulation Study Background: The fact that a baby dies suddenly and unexpectedly means that there is a raised probability that the baby’s family have risk factors associated with Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). Thus one cannot consider the risk of a subsequent death to be that of the general population. The Confidential Enquiry into Stillbirths and Deaths in Infancy (CESDI)6 identified three major social risk factors: smoking, age1, and unemployed/unwaged as major risk factors. It gave estimates of risk for families with different numbers of these risk factors. We investigate whether it is reasonable to assume that, conditional on these risk factors, the risk of a second event is independent of the risk of the first and as a consequence one can square the risks to get the risk of two SIDS in a family. We have used CESDI data to estimate the probability of a second SID in a family under different plausible scenarios of the prevalence of the risk factors. We have applied the model to make predictions in the Care of Next Infant (CONI) study7. Results: The model gave plausible predictions. The CONI study observed 18 second SIDS. Our model predicted 14 (95% prediction interval 7 to 21). Conclusion: When considering the risk of a subsequent SIDS in a family one should always take into account the known risk factors. If all risks have been identified, then conditional on these risks, the risk of two events is the product of the individual risks However for a given family we cannot quantify the magnitude of the increased risk because of other possible risk factors not accounted for in the model

Integrated support structure

This Major Qualifying Project is part of the Advanced Space Design Program at WPI. The goal is to design a support structure for a NASA GetAway Special experimental canister. The payload integration, weight, volume, and structural integrity of the canister as specified by NASA guidelines were studied. The end result is a complete set of design drawings with interface drawings and data to specify the design and leave a base on which the next group can concentrate

Experimental investigations of a uranium plasma pertinent to a self sustaining plasma source Annual technical report, 1 Jan. - 31 Dec. 1969

Uranium plasmas with temperature and radiation measurement

The ubiquitous 1100 charge ordering in organic charge-transfer solids

Charge and spin-orderings in the 1/4-filled organic CT solids are of strong interest, especially in view of their possible relations to organic superconductivity. We show that the charge order (CO) in both 1D and 2D CT solids is of the ...1100... type, in contradiction to mean field prediction of >...1010... CO. We present detailed computations for metal-insulator and magnetic insulator-insulator transitions in the theta-ET materials. Complete agreement with experiments in several theta systems is found. Similar comparisons between theory and experiments in TCNQ, TMTTF, TMTSF, and ET materials prove the ubiquity of this phenomenon.Comment: 3 pages, 4 eps figures; ICSM 200

Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model

Despite high vaccine coverage, pertussis has re-emerged as a public health concern in many countries. One hypothesis posed for re-emergence is the waning of immunity. In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be non-linear, involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunity and subsequent boosting of immunity through asymptomatic re-exposure. We present and analyse a model of infectious disease transmission to examine the interplay between infection and immunity. By allowing the duration of infection-acquired immunity to differ from that of vaccine-acquired immunity, we explore the impact of the difference in durations on long-term disease patterns and prevalence of infection. Our model demonstrates that vaccination may induce cyclic behaviour, and its ability to reduce the infection prevalence increases with both the duration of infection-acquired immunity and duration of vaccine-acquired immunity. We find that increasing vaccine coverage, while capable of leading to an increase in overall transmission, always results in a reduction in prevalence of primary infections, with epidemic cycles characterised by a longer interepidemic period and taller peaks. Our results show that the epidemiological patterns of an infectious disease may change considerably when the duration of vaccine-acquired immunity differs from that of infection-acquired immunity. Our study highlights that for any particular disease and associated vaccine, a detailed understanding of the duration of protection and how that duration is influenced by infection prevalence is important as we seek to optimise vaccination strategies.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure