Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States

This paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies who are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable capital flows since the early 1990s. We explain these flows using two separate models. The first explains the level of capital flows using panel data from the prospective EU members. The second concentrates specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by capital flows in the run up to euro area membership.capital flows, transition economies, accession countries and EU membership

Takeover Risk and the Market for Corporate Control: The Experience of British Firms in the 1970s and 1980s

This paper investigates the determinants of takeovers in a large sample of UK quoted companies. We focus on the channels through which the market for corporate control monitors company performance and discretionary managerial behaviour. Our results indicate that the market for corporate control disciplines poorly performing companies, and that this effect is quantitatively important: a one standard deviation increase in profitability is associated with a fall in the conditional probability of takeover of over 20%. However, we find no evidence that firms without apparent profitable investment opportunities are more likely to be taken over if managers increase investment or reduce dividends, contrary to the predictions of the free cash-flow theory of takovers

Is Attack the Best form of Defence? A Competing Risks Analysis of Acquisition Activity in the UK

The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate whether companies can use acquisition as a strategy to reduce their probability of takeover. A subsidiary issue is whether such a strategy has any impact on their subsequent probability of bankruptcy. The determinants of making an acquisition, being taken over, and bankruptcy are modelled within a competing risks framework using two large samples of UK manufacturing companies. Our results indicate that, ceteris paribus, companies which make acquisitions can significantly reduce their conditional probability of being taken over, largely through the impact that acquisition has on corporate size. In this sense, attack, through acquisition, is the best form of defence, against takeover

On the Determinants of Social Capital in Greece Compared to Countries of the European Union

Social capital refers to the stock of social relations, based on norms and networks of cooperation and trust that spill over to the market and state to enhance collective action between actors and achieve improved social efficiency and economic growth. The aim of the present paper is to discuss the implications of contemporary literature and empirical findings on social capital for the growth prospects of Greece, compared to the member-states of the European Union. In order to examine the potential of social capital to enhance growth, we must look into the factors that determine the nature and context of trust, norms and networks that have emerged in our multinational, multiethnic and multicultural Europe.The contribution of this paper is to offer insight on the determinants of social capital in Greece, compared to the European Union (EU - former 15 member-states). For this purpose, we regress an index of individual group membership, derived from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), on a set of individual as well as aggregate factors of social capital. Regression results provide evidence of the impact of both individual and institutional characteristics on group membership. Differences on the extent of group membership between countries might be indicative of the historical and cultural differences that have affected the evolution of social capital across Europe. Particularly in Greece, the relatively low level of group membership compared to the other EU countries might provide further evidence of its low levels of civicness. Historically, its weak civil society has been a result of a prior civic tradition of clientelism under arbitrary rule, the interference of special-interest groups and the lack of credibility and impartiality from the part of the state. And these factors might be responsible for the slow pace in reform and growth observed compared to the rest of the EU. Nevertheless, the findings on the determinants of social capital may direct us to possible means of rebuilding patterns of participatory and cooperative behavior, especially in countries with low levels of trust and civicness, such as Greece