Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

Background African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease. In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005. Results Outputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination. Conclusions This study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data-sparse environments.</p

Optical determination and identification of organic shells around nanoparticles: application to silver nanoparticles

We present a simple method to prove the presence of an organic shell around silver nanoparticles. This method is based on the comparison between optical extinction measurements of isolated nanoparticles and Mie calculations predicting the expected wavelength of the Localized Surface Plasmon Resonance of the nanoparticles with and without the presence of an organic layer. This method was applied to silver nanoparticles which seemed to be well protected from oxidation. Further experimental characterization via Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) measurements allowed to identify this protective shell as ethylene glycol. Combining LSPR and SERS measurements could thus give proof of both presence and identification for other plasmonic nanoparticles surrounded by organic shells

Anxiety, depression, and attachment before and after the first-trimester screening for Down syndrome: comparing couples who undergo ART with those who conceive spontaneously.

OBJECTIVES: This study's aim was to describe the emotional status of parents to be before and after the first-trimester combined prenatal screening test. METHODS: One hundred three couples participated, of which 52 had undergone an in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection treatment [assisted reproductive technology (ART)] and 51 had conceived spontaneously. Participants completed the state scale of the State-trait Anxiety Inventory, the Edinburgh Depression Scale, and the Maternal and Paternal Antenatal Attachment Questionnaire before the first-trimester combined prenatal screening test at around 12 weeks of gestational age (T1) and just after receiving the results at approximately 14 weeks of gestational age (T2). RESULTS: We observed a significant decrease in anxiety and depression symptoms and a significant increase in attachment from T1 to T2. Results showed no differences between groups at either time point, which suggests that ART parents are more similar to than different from parents conceiving spontaneously. Furthermore, given the importance of anxiety during pregnancy, a subsample of women with clinical anxiety was identified. They had significantly higher rates of clinical depression and lower attachment. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that, regardless of whether conception was through ART or spontaneous, clinical anxiety in women over the prenatal testing period is associated with more vulnerability during pregnancy (i.e. clinical depression and less attachment to fetus). © 2015 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd

Ancestral genome estimation reveals the history of ecological diversification in Agrobacterium

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is considered as a major source of innovation in bacteria, and as such is expected to drive adaptation to new ecological niches. However, among the many genes acquired through HGT along the diversification history of genomes, only a fraction may have actively contributed to sustained ecological adaptation. We used a phylogenetic approach accounting for the transfer of genes (or groups of genes) to estimate the history of genomes in Agrobacterium biovar 1, a diverse group of soil and plant-dwelling bacterial species. We identified clade-specific blocks of cotransferred genes encoding coherent biochemical pathways that may have contributed to the evolutionary success of key Agrobacterium clades. This pattern of gene coevolution rejects a neutral model of transfer, in which neighboring genes would be transferred independently of their function and rather suggests purifying selection on collectively coded acquired pathways. The acquisition of these synapomorphic blocks of cofunctioning genes probably drove the ecological diversification of Agrobacterium and defined features of ancestral ecological niches, which consistently hint at a strong selective role of host plant rhizospheres

Oracle-based optimization applied to climate model calibration

In this paper, we show how oracle-based optimization can be effectively used for the calibration of an intermediate complexity climate model. In a fully developed example, we estimate the 12 principal parameters of the C-GOLDSTEIN climate model by using an oracle-based optimization tool, Proximal-ACCPM. The oracle is a procedure that finds, for each query point, a value for the goodness-of-fit function and an evaluation of its gradient. The difficulty in the model calibration problem stems from the need to undertake costly calculations for each simulation and also from the fact that the error function used to assess the goodness-of-fit is not convex. The method converges to a ‘best fit' estimate over 10 times faster than a comparable test using the ensemble Kalman filter. The approach is simple to implement and potentially useful in calibrating computationally demanding models based on temporal integration (simulation), for which functional derivative information is not readily availabl

Accurate spectroscopy of Sr atoms

We report the frequency measurement with an accuracy in the 100 kHz range of several optical transitions of atomic Sr : $^1S_0- ^3P_1$ at 689 nm, $^3P_1- ^3S_1$ at 688 nm and $^3P_0- ^3S_1$ at 679 nm. Measurements are performed with a frequency chain based on a femtosecond laser referenced to primary frequency standards. They allowed the indirect determination with a 70 kHz uncertainty of the frequency of the doubly forbidden 5s^2^1S_0- 5s5p^3P_0 transition of $^{87}$Sr at 698 nm and in a second step its direct observation. Frequency measurements are performed for $^{88}$Sr and $^{87}$Sr, allowing the determination of $^3P_0$, $^3P_1$ and $^3S_1$ isotope shifts, as well as the $^3S_1$ hyperfine constants.Comment: 12 pages, 16 figure

Geometrically induced modification of surface plasmons in the optical and telecom regimes

We demonstrate that the introduction of a subwavelength periodic modulation into a metallic structure strongly modifies the guiding characteristics of the surface plasmon modes supported by the system. Moreover, it is also shown how a new type of a tightly confined surface plasmon polariton mode can be created by just milling a periodic corrugation into a metallic ridge placed on top of a metal surface

Monte-Carlo simulations of the recombination dynamics in porous silicon

A simple lattice model describing the recombination dynamics in visible light emitting porous Silicon is presented. In the model, each occupied lattice site represents a Si crystal of nanometer size. The disordered structure of porous Silicon is modeled by modified random percolation networks in two and three dimensions. Both correlated (excitons) and uncorrelated electron-hole pairs have been studied. Radiative and non-radiative processes as well as hopping between nearest neighbor occupied sites are taken into account. By means of extensive Monte-Carlo simulations, we show that the recombination dynamics in porous Silicon is due to a dispersive diffusion of excitons in a disordered arrangement of interconnected Si quantum dots. The simulated luminescence decay for the excitons shows a stretched exponential lineshape while for uncorrelated electron-hole pairs a power law decay is suggested. Our results successfully account for the recombination dynamics recently observed in the experiments. The present model is a prototype for a larger class of models describing diffusion of particles in a complex disordered system.Comment: 33 pages, RevTeX, 19 figures available on request to [email protected]