Classification of cryptocurrency coins and tokens by the dynamics of their market capitalisations

We empirically verify that the market capitalisations of coins and tokens in the cryptocurrency universe follow power-law distributions with significantly different values, with the tail exponent falling between 0.5 and 0.7 for coins, and between 1.0 and 1.3 for tokens. We provide a rationale for this, based on a simple proportional growth with birth & death model previously employed to describe the size distribution of firms, cities, webpages, etc. We empirically validate the model and its main predictions, in terms of proportional growth (Gibrat's law) of the coins and tokens. Estimating the main parameters of the model, the theoretical predictions for the power-law exponents of coin and token distributions are in remarkable agreement with the empirical estimations, given the simplicity of the model. Our results clearly characterize coins as being "entrenched incumbents" and tokens as an "explosive immature ecosystem", largely due to massive and exuberant Initial Coin Offering activity in the token space. The theory predicts that the exponent for tokens should converge to 1 in the future, reflecting a more reasonable rate of new entrants associated with genuine technological innovations

La situation financière des sociétés non financières en France 1995-2006. Baisse du taux d’épargne et recours accru à l’endettement.

Comme le montrent les statistiques de comptabilité nationale et les comptes d’entreprise, le taux de marge et la rentabilité économique des entreprises ayant stagné, la hausse des dividendes et des impôts pèse sur le taux d’épargne. L’investissement, spécialement dynamique dans le secteur immobilier, est donc financé par un surcroît d’endettement.Comptabilité nationale, comptabilité d’entreprise, endettement, épargne, rentabilité.

Modelling stochastic bivariate mortality

Stochastic mortality, i.e. modelling death arrival via a jump process with stochastic intensity, is gaining increasing reputation as a way to represent mortality risk. This paper represents a first attempt to model the mortality risk of couples of individuals, according to the stochastic intensity approach. On the theoretical side, we extend to couples the Cox processes set up, i.e. the idea that mortality is driven by a jump process whose intensity is itself a stochastic process, proper of a particular generation within each gender. Dependence between the survival times of the members of a couple is captured by an Archimedean copula. On the calibration side, we fit the joint survival function by calibrating separately the (analytical) copula and the (analytical) margins. First, we select the best fit copula according to the methodology of Wang and Wells (2000) for censored data. Then, we provide a sample-based calibration for the intensity, using a time-homogeneous, non mean-reverting, affine process: this gives the analytical marginal survival functions. Coupling the best fit copula with the calibrated margins we obtain, on a sample generation, a joint survival function which incorporates the stochastic nature of mortality improvements and is far from representing independency.On the contrary, since the best fit copula turns out to be a Nelsen one, dependency is increasing with age and long-term dependence exists

Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market

The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of $100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and May 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-)exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction

A New Test for Hamming-Weight Dependencies

We describe a new statistical test for pseudorandom number generators (PRNGs). Our test can find bias induced by dependencies among the Hamming weights of the outputs of a PRNG, even for PRNGs that pass state-of-the-art tests of the same kind from the literature, and in particular for generators based on F2-linear transformations such as the dSFMT, xoroshiro1024+, and WELL512

Overconfidence, incentives and digit ratio

This paper contributes to a better understanding of the biological underpinnings of overconfidence by analyzing performance predictions in the Cognitive Reflection Test with and without monetary incentives. In line with the existing literature we find that the participants are too optimistic about their performance on average; incentives lead to higher performance; and males score higher than females on this particular task. The novelty of this paper is an analysis of the relation between participants’ performance prediction accuracy and their second to fourth digit ratio. It has been reported that the digit ratio is a negatively correlated bio-marker of prenatal testosterone exposure. In the un-incentivized treatment, we find that males with low digit ratios, on average, are significantly more overconfident about their performance. In the incentivized treatment, however, we observe that males with low digit ratios, on average, are less overconfident about their performance. These effects are not observed in females. We discuss how these findings fit into the literature on testosterone and decision making and how they might help to explain seemingly opposing evidence

Efficient Tet-dependent expression of human factor IX in vivo by a new self-regulating lentiviral vector.

Regulation of gene expression represents a long-sought goal of gene therapy. However, most viral vectors pose constraints on the incorporation of drug-dependent transcriptional regulatory systems. Here, by optimizing the design of self-regulating lentiviral vectors based on the tetracycline system, we have been able to overcome the limitations of previously reported constructs and to reach both robust expression and efficient regulation from a single vector. The improved performance allows us to report for the first time effective long-term in vivo regulation of a human clotting Factor IX (hF.IX) transgene upon systemic administration of a single vector to SCID mice. We showed that hF.IX expression in the plasma could be expressed to therapeutically significant concentrations, adjusted to different set levels by varying the tetracycline dose, rapidly turned off and on, and completely recovered after each treatment cycle. The new vector design was versatile, as it successfully incorporated a tissue-specific promoter that selectively targeted regulated expression to hepatocytes. Robust transgene expression in the systemic circulation coupled to the ability to switch off and even adjust the expression level may open the way to safer gene-based delivery of therapeutics