Can bayesian models play a role in dental caries epidemiology? Evidence from an application to the BELCAP data set

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to show the potential of Bayesian analysis in statistical modelling of dental caries data. Because of the bounded nature of the dmft (DMFT) index, zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) and beta-binomial (ZIBB) models were considered. The effects of incorporating prior information available about the parameters of models were also shown. MethodsThe data set used in this study was the Belo Horizonte Caries Prevention (BELCAP) study (Bohning etal. (1999)), consisting of five variables collected among 797 Brazilian school children designed to evaluate four programmes for reducing caries. Only the eight primary molar teeth were considered in the data set. A data augmentation algorithm was used for estimation. Firstly, noninformative priors were used to express our lack of knowledge about the regression parameters. Secondly, prior information about the probability of being a structural zero dmft and the probability of being caries affected in the subpopulation of susceptible children was incorporated. ResultsWith noninformative priors, the best fitting model was the ZIBB. Education (OR=0.76, 95% CrI: 0.59, 0.99), all interventions (OR=0.46, 95% CrI: 0.35, 0.62), rinsing (OR=0.61, 95% CrI: 0.47, 0.80) and hygiene (OR=0.65, 95% CrI: 0.49, 0.86) were demonstrated to be factors protecting children from being caries affected. Being male increased the probability of being caries diseased (OR=1.19, 95% CrI: 1.01, 1.42). However, after incorporating informative priors, ZIB models' estimates were not influenced, while ZIBB models reduced deviance and confirmed the association with all interventions and rinsing only. DiscussionIn our application, Bayesian estimates showed a similar accuracy and precision than likelihood-based estimates, although they offered many computational advantages and the possibility of expressing all forms of uncertainty in terms of probability. The overdispersion parameter could expound why the introduction of prior information had significant effects on the parameters of the ZIBB model, while ZIB estimates remained unchanged. Finally, the best performance of ZIBB compared to the ZIB model was shown to catch overdispersion in data

The Train dynamics of wheel rail contact and longitudinal lateral interaction between vehicles

This paper is focused on the vehicle dynamics caused by the forces exchanged, through buffers and draw gears, by consecutive vehicles on a curve. The results have been obtained by adding a buffers/draw gears contact model on an existing multibody code, previously developed by the authors. The multibody code manages rigid bodies connected by elastic and rigid constraints; the wheel/rail contact model is three dimensional and employs an elastic constraint among wheel and rail. The wheel/rail contact is managed by means of a numerical model called TOAM (third order approximation method). Numerical tests and experimental validations of the proposed model are here presented, considering a train made by three vehicles, running on an S shaped curve, subjected to parametric compressive forces

A new crested pterosaur from the early cretaceous of Spain: the first European tapejarid (Pterodactyloidea: Azhdarchoidea)

Background: The Tapejaridae is a group of unusual toothless pterosaurs characterized by bizarre cranial crests. From a paleoecological point of view, frugivorous feeding habits have often been suggested for one of its included clades, the Tapejarinae. So far, the presence of these intriguing flying reptiles has been unambiguously documented from Early Cretaceous sites in China and Brazil, where pterosaur fossils are less rare and fragmentary than in similarly-aged European strata. Methodology/Principal Findings: Europejara olcadesorum gen. et sp. nov. is diagnosed by a unique combination of characters including an unusual caudally recurved dentary crest. It represents the oldest known member of Tapejaridae and the oldest known toothless pterosaur. The new taxon documents the earliest stage of the acquisition of this anatomical feature during the evolutionary history of the Pterodactyloidea. This innovation may have been linked to the development of new feeding strategies. Conclusion/Significance: The discovery of Europejara in the Barremian of the Iberian Peninsula reveals an earlier and broader global distribution of tapejarids, suggesting a Eurasian origin of this group. It adds to the poorly known pterosaur fauna of the Las Hoyas locality and contributes to a better understanding of the paleoecology of this Konservat-Lagerstätte. Finally, the significance of a probable contribution of tapejarine tapejarids to the early angiosperm dispersal is discussedAWAK acknowledges the Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ nos. E-26/102.779/2008 and E-26/111.273/2010) and the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq no. 307276/2009-0) for supporting research on pterosaurs, including the examination of the Las Hoyas specimen. This study was supported by the Project CGL2009-11838BTE of the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and the Junta de Castilla-La Manch

Natalizumab affects T-cell phenotype in multiple sclerosis: implications for JCV reactivation

The anti-CD49d monoclonal antibody natalizumab is currently an effective therapy against the relapsing-remitting form of multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Natalizumab therapeutic efficacy is limited by the reactivation of the John Cunningham polyomavirus (JCV) and development of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). To correlate natalizumab-induced phenotypic modifications of peripheral blood T-lymphocytes with JCV reactivation, JCV-specific antibodies (serum), JCV-DNA (blood and urine), CD49d expression and relative abundance of peripheral blood T-lymphocyte subsets were longitudinally assessed in 26 natalizumab-treated RRMS patients. Statistical analyses were performed using GraphPad Prism and R. Natalizumab treatment reduced CD49d expression on memory and effector subsets of peripheral blood T-lymphocytes. Moreover, accumulation of peripheral blood CD8+ memory and effector cells was observed after 12 and 24 months of treatment. CD4+ and CD8+ T-lymphocyte immune-activation was increased after 24 months of treatment. Higher percentages of CD8+ effectors were observed in subjects with detectable JCV-DNA. Natalizumab reduces CD49d expression on CD8+ T-lymphocyte memory and effector subsets, limiting their migration to the central nervous system and determining their accumulation in peripheral blood. Impairment of central nervous system immune surveillance and reactivation of latent JCV, can explain the increased risk of PML development in natalizumab-treated RRMS subjects

A new small-bodied azhdarchoid pterosaur from the Lower Cretaceous of England and its implications for pterosaur anatomy, diversity and phylogeny

BACKGROUND: Pterosaurs have been known from the Cretaceous sediments of the Isle of Wight (southern England, United Kingdom) since 1870. We describe the three-dimensional pelvic girdle and associated vertebrae of a small near-adult pterodactyloid from the Atherfield Clay Formation (lower Aptian, Lower Cretaceous). Despite acknowledged variation in the pterosaur pelvis, previous studies have not adequately sampled or incorporated pelvic characters into phylogenetic analyses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The new specimen represents the new taxon Vectidraco daisymorrisae gen. et sp. nov., diagnosed by the presence of a concavity posterodorsal to the acetabulum and the form of its postacetabular process on the ilium. Several characters suggest that Vectidraco belongs to Azhdarchoidea. We constructed a pelvis-only phylogenetic analysis to test whether the pterosaur pelvis carries a useful phylogenetic signal. Resolution in recovered trees was poor, but they approximately matched trees recovered from analyses of total evidence. We also added Vectidraco and our pelvic characters to an existing total-evidence matrix for pterosaurs. Both analyses recovered Vectidraco within Azhdarchoidea. CONCLUSIONS/ SIGNIFICANCE: The Lower Cretaceous strata of western Europe have yielded members of several pterosaur lineages, but Aptian pterosaurs from western Europe are rare. With a pelvis length of 40 mm, the new animal would have had a total length of c. 350 mm, and a wingspan of c. 750 mm. Barremian and Aptian pterodactyloids from western Europe show that small-bodied azhdarchoids lived alongside ornithocheirids and istiodactylids. This assemblage is similar in terms of which lineages are represented to the coeval beds of Liaoning, China; however, the number of species and specimens present at Liaoning is much higher. While the general phylogenetic composition of western European and Chinese communities appear to have been approximately similar, the differences may be due to different palaeoenvironmental and depositional settings. The western Europe pterodactyloid record may therefore be artificially low in diversity due to preservational factors

Surgical site infection after caesarean section. Space for post-discharge surveillance improvements and reliable comparisons

Surgical site infections (SSI) after caesarean section (CS) represent a substantial health system concern. Surveying SSI has been associated with a reduction in SSI incidence. We report the findings of three (2008, 2011 and 2013) regional active SSI surveillances after CS in community hospital of the Latium region determining the incidence of SSI. Each CS was surveyed for SSI occurrence by trained staff up to 30 post-operative days, and association of SSI with relevant characteristics was assessed using binomial logistic regression. A total of 3,685 CS were included in the study. A complete 30 day post-operation follow-up was achieved in over 94% of procedures. Overall 145 SSI were observed (3.9% cumulative incidence) of which 131 (90.3%) were superficial and 14 (9.7%) complex (deep or organ/space) SSI; overall 129 SSI (of which 89.9% superficial) were diagnosed post-discharge. Only higher NNIS score was significantly associated with SSI occurrence in the regression analysis. Our work provides the first regional data on CS-associated SSI incidence, highlighting the need for a post-discharge surveillance which should assure 30 days post-operation to not miss data on complex SSI, as well as being less labour intensive