2010 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2009-2019

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2009-2019 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain stable over the next ten years in spite of the 2007-08 increase in world oil prices. That increase in oil price caused an increase in the conversion of sugar into ethanol in Brazil, while other exporting countries increased their production of sugar in response to higher sugar prices. Sugar prices remained strong in 2009 as the world’s economies recover slowly from the recession. World demand for sugar is expected to grow at a similar rate to world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices remaining near the 16.0-19.0 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to increase from 33.72 cents/lb in 2009 to 36.19 cents/lb in 2019, if Brazil continues to convert sugar into ethanol. It is projected that Mexico would be able to export 483 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2019. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.sugar, production, exports, consumption, ending stocks, Agribusiness,

2009 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2008-2018

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2008-2018 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain stable over the next ten years in spite of the 2007-08 surge in world oil prices. That increase in price caused an increase in the conversion of sugar into ethanol in Brazil, while other exporting countries increased their production in response to those higher prices. Sugar prices returned to normal levels in 2008. World demand for sugar is expected to grow at a similar rate to world supply, resulting in Carribean sugar prices remaining near the 13.0 -14.0 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to decrease slightly from 28.60 cents/lb in 2008 to 28.40 cents/lb in 2018, if Brazil continues to convert sugar into ethanol. It is projected that Mexico will be able to export 119 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2018. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.sugar, production, exports, consumption, ending stocks, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Optimizing Ethanol Production in North Dakota

A spatial equilibrium model based on a non-linear mathematical programming algorithm was developed to determine the optimal number, location, and size of cellulose ethanol plants for North Dakota. The objective function of the model is to minimize processing cost of biomass for ethanol and the transportation cost of shipping biomass to processing plants and ethanol to blending facilities. A heuristic approach, combined with a spatial equilibrium model, was used to determine the optimal number, location and size of biomass processing plants.Cellulosic ethanol, biomass, mathematical programming, heuristic, production costs, Agribusiness,

2002 OUTLOOK OF THE U.S. AND WORLD WHEAT INDUSTRIES, 2001-2011

This report evaluates the U.S. and world wheat markets for the 2002-2012 period by using the Global Wheat Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Both the U.S. and world wheat economies are predicted to improve for the next ten years. World demands for both common and durum wheat are expected to grow faster than world production of the two wheat classes, resulting in gradual increases in prices of the wheat varieties, which are predicted to increase 15.3% for durum wheat and 17.3% for common wheat for the 2002-2012 period. World trade volumes of both classes of wheat are expected to expand, but trade volume of durum wheat may grow faster than common wheat.common wheat, durum wheat, production, exports, consumption, ending stocks, Crop Production/Industries,

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE FARM BILL PROPOSALS

Various farm organizations and political parties are taking sides on whether the FAIR Act needs to be scraped or just modified. This study analyzes three such proposals: the U.S. House of Representatives proposal (H.R. 2646), the American Farm Bureau proposal, and the National Farmers Union proposal. The continuation of the FAIR Act is also included as an another alternative. The H.R. 2646 and the American Farm Bureau proposals are modifications of the FAIR Act while the National Farmers Union proposal is a totally redesigned bill. The H.R. 2646 and the Farm Bureau proposals are very similar in their results. They provide higher net farm income for the large size farm than the Farmers Union proposal does early in the forecast period, but the Farmers Union proposal provides higher net farm income in the last three years of the time period. The Farmers Union proposal provides higher net farm income for the medium and small size farm than either the H.R. 2646 or the Farm Bureau proposals because of the targeting feature. The FAIR Act provides less net farm income for all size farms than any other proposal.Farm Bill, Targeting, North Dakota Representative Farms, H.R. 2646, National Farmers Union, American Farm Bureau, Agricultural and Food Policy,

1999 OUTLOOK OF THE U.S. AND WORLD SUGAR MARKETS

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 1998-2008 by using the World Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to be strong for the next ten years. World demand for sugar is expected to grow faster than world supply, gradually increasing sugar prices. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to expand.Sugar, Production, Exports, Consumption, Ending Stocks, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing, International Relations/Trade,