Predicting Outcomes in Investment Treaty Arbitration

Crafting appropriate dispute settlement processes is challenging for any conflict-management system, particularly for politically sensitive international economic law disputes. As the United States negotiates investment treaties with Asian and European countries, the terms of dispute settlement have become contentious. There is a vigorous debate about whether investment treaty arbitration (ITA) is an appropriate dispute settlement mechanism. While some sing the praises of ITA, others offer a spirited critique. Some critics claim that ITA is biased against states, while others suggest ITA is predictable but unfair due to factors like arbitrator identity or venue. Using data from 159 final cases derived from 272 publicly available ITA awards, this Article examines outcomes of ITA cases to explore those concerns. Key descriptive findings demonstrate that states reliably won a greater proportion of cases than investors; and for the subset of cases investors won, the mean award was US$45.6 million with mean investor success rate of 35%. State success rates were roughly similar to respondent-favorable or state-favorable results in whistleblowing, qui tam, and medical-malpractice litigation in U.S. courts. The Article then explores whether ITA outcomes varied depending upon investor identity, state identity, the presence of repeat-player counsel, arbitrator-related, or venue variables. Models using case-based variables always predicted outcomes whereas arbitrator-venue models did not. The results provide initial evidence that the most critical variables for predicting outcomes involved some form of investor identity and the experience of parties’ lawyers. For investor identity, the most robust predictor was whether investors were human beings, with cases brought by people exhibiting greater success than corporations; and when at least one named investor or corporate parent was ranked in the Financial Times 500, investors sometimes secured more favorable outcomes. Following Marc Galanter’s scholarship demonstrating that repeat-player lawyers are critical to litigation outcomes, attorney experience also affected ITA outcomes. Investors with experienced counsel were more likely to obtain a damage award against a state, whereas states retaining experienced counsel were only reliably associated with decreased levels of relative investor success. Although there was variation in outcomes, ultimately, the data did not support a conclusion that ITA was completely unpredictable; rather, the results called into question some critiques of ITA and did not prove that ITA is a wholly unacceptable form of dispute settlement. Instead, the results suggest the vital debate about ITA’s future would be well served by focusing on evidence-based insights and reliance on data rather than nonreplicable intuition

Unconscious nobility: the animal poetry of Harold Farmer

I want to suggest that Harold Farmer's poetry works repeatedly in this area of ambiguity, a zone of tension triangulated, as it were, between three impulses. First : a notion (or even the fact) that a sense of community depends on 'knowing' what the 'other' is thinking or feeling, and on being able to articulate that knowledge. Second : suspecting, or even knowing, that certain reaches of the mind of the 'other' are fundamentally, and fascinatingly, unknowable - of the realm of the unconscious. And third : knowing (or just fearing or hoping) that any secure distinction between ourselves-as-humans and ourselves-as-sharing-animal-traits is artificial, or at least permeable. Hence, while Farmer's wild animals are perpetually on the brink of disappearing from sight and understanding, it is precisely that mysteriousness which attracts us, can sometimes envelop us, and even speak to us. In having spoken and been spoken to, we are somehow ennobled

Acoustic suppression of the coffee-ring effect

We study the influence of acoustic fields on the evaporative self-assembly of solute particles suspended inside sessile droplets of complex fluids. The self-assembly process often results in an undesirable ring-like heterogeneous residue, a phenomenon known as the coffee-ring effect. Here we show that this ring-like self-assembly can be controlled acoustically to form homogeneous disc-like or concentrated spot-like residues. The principle of our method lies in the formation of dynamic patterns of particles in acoustically excited droplets, which inhibits the evaporation-driven convective transport of particles towards the contact line. We elucidate the mechanisms of this pattern formation and also obtain conditions for the suppression of the coffee-ring effect. Our results provide a more general solution to suppress the coffee-ring effect without any physiochemical modification of the fluids, the particles or the surface, thus potentially useful in a broad range of industrial and analytical applications that require homogenous solute depositions

Elephants, compassion, and the largesse of literature

[From the text] Why is it that we do not raise a monument, a mausoleum, nor even a humble gravestone, to mark the death of every elephant? We habitually, even compulsively, do this for other humans, occasionally for treasured pets. Yet we do not do it for the most charismatic, gigantic, culturally resonant land animal we will ever encounter. Why not? Some possible answers. One: too much work. Another: we regard other animals as less conscious than ourselves; we are the only creatures who deserve to have our deaths so commemorated. A third: wild animals are part of wild ecosystems; it is ‘natural’ for them to die and to be reabsorbed namelessly back into those ecosystems. We humans, on the other hand, consider ourselves somehow separate from those ecosystems: we shield ourselves from ‘Nature’ with bricks and literatures while we live, with marble and epitaphs after we die

Laser-based techniques for non-destructive surgery on individual cells

Combining tightly focused laser beams with surface-treated microtools enables injection and surface biopsies on individual, live cells with minimal disruption to their normal function

"Muscled Presence": Douglas Livingstone's poem "Thirteen Ways of Looking at a Black Snake"

Douglas Livingstone's poem "Thirteen Ways of Looking at a Black Snake" is an artwork which addresses precisely these questions, seeking a manner of portraying the snake which is neither grossly appropriative nor wholly detached, neither ethically empty nor preachy. In its multi-angled structure, Livingstone attempts aesthetically "to establish and embellish ... a contact zone with the nonhuman animals who share our world with us, but accepting also that there exist considerable venues on either side of this contact zone that are, on the one hand, only human, and on the other hand, only nonhuman". Even in his more formally scientific work, Livingstone argues for the inevitability of such limits to knowledge, and for the value of the imagination in addressing them

The Asymptotic Giant Branches of GCs: Selective Entry Only

The handful of available observations of AGB stars in Galactic Globular Clusters suggest that the GC AGB populations are dominated by cyanogen-weak stars. This contrasts strongly with the distributions in the RGB (and other) populations, which generally show a 50:50 bimodality in CN band strength. If it is true that the AGB populations show very different distributions then it presents a serious problem for low mass stellar evolution theory, since such a surface abundance change going from the RGB to AGB is not predicted by stellar models. However this is only a tentative conclusion, since it is based on very small AGB sample sizes. To test whether this problem really exists we have carried out an observational campaign specifically targeting AGB stars in GCs. We have obtained medium resolution spectra for about 250 AGB stars across 9 Galactic GCs using the multi-object spectrograph on the AAT (2df/AAOmega). We present some of the preliminary findings of the study for the second parameter trio of GCs: NGC 288, NGC 362 and NGC 1851. The results indeed show that there is a deficiency of stars with strong CN bands on the AGB. To confirm that this phenomenon is robust and not just confined to CN band strengths and their vagaries, we have made observations using FLAMES/VLT to measure elemental abundances for NGC 6752.We present some initial results from this study also. Our sodium abundance results show conclusively that only a subset of stars in GCs experience the AGB phase of evolution. This is the first direct, concrete confirmation of the phenomenon.Comment: 4 pages, to appear in conference proceedings of "Reading the book of globular clusters with the lens of stellar evolution", Rome, 26-28 November 201

A Landscape Cannot Be A Homeland

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Taylor & Francis via the DOI in this record.What is the problem for which landscape is the answer? In this paper, I offer a response to this question, first posed at a meeting of landscape researchers in Brussels in 2011. I argue that the problem can be defined as ontopology, or what I call here homeland thinking, and I propose that a landscape cannot be a homeland. The salience of landscape as a critical term instead involves modes of thinking and feeling that chafe against invocations of homeland as a site of existential inhabitation, as a locus of sentiment and attachment, and a wellspring of identity. The paper explores the connections between ideas of landscape and homeland through discussions of the European Landscape Convention, phenomenology and the term homeland itself. I conclude by arguing that a landscape must be understood as a kind of dislocation or distancing from itself. There are, after all, no original inhabitants