Revisiting the Tinbergen Rule: use the macroprudential tools to maintain financial stability.

Capital flows to emerging market economies, which have intensified recently due to better growth prospects, interest rate differentials, and better risk perceptions, have the potential to destabilise financial systems in these countries which are typically neither diversified nor deep enough to absorb such flows. While tools to manage large capital flows are well known, the appropriate policy mix depends on country-specific circumstances. Fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, foreign exchange market intervention, macroprudential tools, and capital controls could be used to cope with the volatility of capital flows, but each of them entails some tradeoff. The challenge faced by central banks is to establish a framework that combines both price and financial stability as primary objectives and identify policy instruments to target both, even at times they seem to conflict with each other. In today’s challenging financial environment, public authorities in Turkey have underscored four basic principles upon which the fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies would be built to maintain financial stability. These are (1) use of more equity, less leverage; (2) extending the duration of borrowing; (3) strengthening the foreign exchange position and use of local currency in borrowing; and (4) better management of foreign currency risk. This approach aims to use current global financial environment as an opportunity to strengthen the country’s financial position and to support deepening of its financial system without jeopardising its health and stability.

Global analysis of solar neutrinos (assumed to be Majorana particles) together with the new KamLAND data

Assuming neutrinos are Majorana particles having non-zero transition magnetic moments, a global analysis of solar neutrino data, together with the new KamLAND data, is presented in the resonant spin flavor precession (RSFP) framework. The allowed regions from solar data combined with new KamLAND data are examined at 0.95 confidence level (CL). The electron antineutrino flux from the Sun is calculated, and via the results obtained several limits are set for muB.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

On the measurement and impact of fiscal decentralization

The typical post-Bretton Woods era development approach that emphasized central government-led development efforts has changed dramatically, and local governments have clearly emerged as players in development policy. The thinking about what is important to achieve in development objectives is changing as fiscal decentralization reforms are being pursued by many countries around the world. In this context, a number of studies have attempted to quantify the impact of decentralization by relating some measure of it to economic outcomes of fiscal stability, economic growth, and public sector size. But decentralization is surprisingly difficult to measure. Nearly all cases examining the relationship between decentralization and macroeconomic performance have relied on the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) of the International Monetary Fund. However, despite its merits, GFS falls short in providing a full picture of fiscal decentralization. For some countries, however, there is data that more accurately captures fiscal responsibilities among different types of governments.Decentralization,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management,Public&Municipal Finance,Public Sector Economics&Finance,National Governance,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management,Urban Economics

Nucleon exchange in heavy-ion collisions within stochastic mean-field approach

Nucleon exchange mechanism is investigated in deep-inelastic symmetric heavy-ion collisions in the basis of the Stochastic Mean-Field approach. By extending the previous work to off-central collisions, analytical expression is deduced for diffusion coefficient of nucleon exchange mechanism. Numerical calculations are carried out for ${}^{40}$Ca + ${}^{40}$Ca and ${}^{90}$Zr + ${}^{90}$Zr systems and the results are compared with the phenomenological nucleon exchange model. Also, calculations are compared with the available experimental results of deep-inelastic collisions between calcium nuclei.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

Photoproduction of mixed radions at a proton-proton collider

We investigate Higgs-radion mixing scenario through single radion photoproduction process $pp\to p\gamma p\to pRqX$ at the LHC where $X$ represents the remnants of one of the initial protons. We consider high luminosity values of $L_{int}=200\;fb^{-1}$, $500\;fb^{-1}$ and $3000\;fb^{-1}$. We obtain bounds on the mixing parameter space by considering $R\to \gamma\gamma$, $R\to W^+ W^-$ and $R\to ZZ$ decay channels of the radion as the signal. We also perform a similar analysis for a 100 TeV future proton-proton collider and compare its potential with that of LHC.Comment: 25 pages, 13 figure

Measuring Dynamic Connectedness with Large Bayesian VAR Models

We estimate a large Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model of daily stock return volatilities for 35 U.S. and European financial institutions. Based on that model we extract a connectedness index in the spirit of Diebold and Yilmaz(2014)(DYCI).We show that the connectedness index from the TVP-VAR model captures abrupt turning points better than the one obtained from rolling-windows VAR estimates. As the TVP-VAR based DYCI shows more pronounced jumps during important crisis moments, it captures the intensification of tensions in financial markets more accurately and timely than the rolling-windows based DYCI. Finally, we show that the TVP-VAR based index performs better in forecasting systemic events in the American and European financial sectors as well

Quantal description of nucleon exchange in stochastic mean-field approach

Nucleon exchange mechanism is investigated in central collisions of symmetric heavy-ions in the basis of the stochastic mean-field approach. Quantal diffusion coefficients for nucleon exchange are calculated by including non-Markovian effects and shell structure. Variances of fragment mass distributions are calculated in central collisions of ${}^{40}$Ca + ${}^{40}$Ca, ${}^{48}$Ca + ${}^{48}$Ca and ${}^{56}$Ni + ${}^{56}$Ni systems

Anticipating Information Needs Based on Check-in Activity

In this work we address the development of a smart personal assistant that is capable of anticipating a user's information needs based on a novel type of context: the person's activity inferred from her check-in records on a location-based social network. Our main contribution is a method that translates a check-in activity into an information need, which is in turn addressed with an appropriate information card. This task is challenging because of the large number of possible activities and related information needs, which need to be addressed in a mobile dashboard that is limited in size. Our approach considers each possible activity that might follow after the last (and already finished) activity, and selects the top information cards such that they maximize the likelihood of satisfying the user's information needs for all possible future scenarios. The proposed models also incorporate knowledge about the temporal dynamics of information needs. Using a combination of historical check-in data and manual assessments collected via crowdsourcing, we show experimentally the effectiveness of our approach.Comment: Proceedings of the 10th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining (WSDM '17), 201

Cosmological test of the Yilmaz theory of gravity

We test the Yilmaz theory of gravitation by working out the corresponding Friedmann-type equations generated by assuming the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmological metrics. In the case that space is flat the theory is consistent only with either a completely empty universe or a negative energy vacuum that decays to produce a constant density of matter. In both cases the total energy remains zero at all times, and in the latter case the acceleration of the expansion is always negative. To obtain a more flexible and potentially more realistic cosmology, the equation of state relating the pressure and energy density of the matter creation process must be different from the vacuum, as for example is the case in the steady-state models of Gold, Bondi, Hoyle and others. The theory does not support the cosmological principle for curved space K =/= 0 cosmological metrics