Studying Atomic Physics Using the Nighttime Atmosphere as a Laboratory

A summary of our recent work using terrestrial nightglow spectra, obtained from astronomical instrumentation, to directly measure, or evaluate theoretical values for fundamental parameters of astrophysically important atomic lines

Changes in soil dissolved organic carbon affect reconstructed history and projected future trends in surface water acidification

Preindustrial (1850s) and future (2060) streamwater chemistry of an anthropogenically acidified small catchment was estimated using the MAGIC model for three different scenarios for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and sources. The highest modeled pH = 5.7 for 1850s as well as for 2060 (pH = 4.4) was simulated given the assumption that streamwater DOC concentration was constant at the 1993 level. A scenario accounting for an increase of DOC as an inverse function of ionic strength (IS) of soilwater and streamwater resulted in much lower preindustrial (pH = 4.9) and future recovery to (pH = 4.1) if the stream riparian zone was assumed to be the only DOC source. If upland soilwater (where significant DOC increase was observed at −5 and −15 cm) was also included, DOC was partly neutralized within the soil and higher preindustrial pH = 5.3 and future pH = 4.2 were estimated. The observed DOC stream flux was 2–4 times higher than the potential carbon production of the riparian zone, implying that this is unlikely to be the sole DOC source. Modeling based on the assumption that stream DOC changes are solely attributable to changes in the riparian zone appears likely to underestimate preindustrial pH

Radiative association and inverse predissociation of oxygen atoms

The formation of \mbox{O}_2 by radiative association and by inverse predissociation of ground state oxygen atoms is studied using quantum-mechanical methods. Cross sections, emission spectra, and rate coefficients are presented and compared with prior experimental and theoretical results. At temperatures below 1000~K radiative association occurs by approach along the $1\,{}^3\Pi_u$ state of \mbox{O}_2 and above 1000~K inverse predissociation through the \mbox{B}\,{}^3\Sigma_u^- state is the dominant mechanism. This conclusion is supported by a quantitative comparison between the calculations and data obtained from hot oxygen plasma spectroscopy.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. A (Sept. 7., 1994), 19 pages, 4 figures, latex (revtex3.0 and epsf.sty

A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes

A Bayesian approach to palaeoecological environmental reconstruction deriving from the unimodal responses generally exhibited by organisms to an environmental gradient is described. The approach uses Bayesian model selection to calculate a collection of probability-weighted, species-specific response curves (SRCs) for each taxon within a training set, with an explicit treatment for zero abundances. These SRCs are used to reconstruct the environmental variable from sub-fossilised assemblages. The approach enables a substantial increase in computational efficiency (several orders of magnitude) over existing Bayesian methodologies. The model is developed from the Surface Water Acidification Programme (SWAP) training set and is demonstrated to exhibit comparable predictive power to existing Weighted Averaging and Maximum Likelihood methodologies, though with improvements in bias; the additional explanatory power of the Bayesian approach lies in an explicit calculation of uncertainty for each individual reconstruction. The model is applied to reconstruct the Holocene acidification history of the Round Loch of Glenhead, including a reconstruction of recent recovery derived from sediment trap data.The Bayesian reconstructions display similar trends to conventional (Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares) reconstructions but provide a better reconstruction of extreme pH and are more sensitive to small changes in diatom assemblages. The validity of the posteriors as an apparently meaningful representation of assemblage-specific uncertainty and the high computational efficiency of the approach open up the possibility of highly constrained multiproxy reconstructions

The common vaginal commensal bacterium Ureaplasma parvum is associated with chorioamnionitis in extreme preterm labour

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of vaginal commensal and low grade pathogenic bacteria including Ureaplasma parvum, Ureaplasma urealyticum, Mycoplasma hominis, Mycoplasma genitalium, Group B Streptococcus (GBS), and Gardnerella vaginalis, in women who delivered preterm at less than 37 weeks gestation in the presence or absence of inflammation of the chorioamnionitic membranes.METHODS: A case control study involving women who delivered before 37 weeks gestation with and without inflammation of chorioamnionitic membranes. A total of 57 placental samples were histologically examined for polymorphonuclear leukocyte infiltration of placental tissue for evidence of chorioamnionitis, and by type-specific nucleic acid amplification for evidence of infection with one or more of the target bacteria. Demographic data was collected for each mother.RESULTS: Amongst the 57 placental samples, 42.1% had chorioamnionitis and 24.6% delivered in the second trimester of pregnancy; U. parvum, U. urealyticum, G. vaginalis and GBS were all detected in the study with respective prevalence of 19.3%, 3.5%, 17.5% and 15.8%; M.genitalium and M. hominis were not detected. U. parvum was significantly associated with chorioamnionitis (p value = 0.02; OR 5.0; (95% CI 1.2-21.5) and was more common in women who delivered in the second (35.7%) compared to the third trimester of pregnancy (13.9%). None of the other bacteria were associated with chorioamnionitis or earlier delivery and all G.vaginalis positive women delivered in the third trimester of pregnancy (p value 0.04).CONCLUSIONS: The detection of U. parvum in placental tissue was significantly associated with acute chorioamnionitis in women presenting in extreme preterm labour.</p

A cognitive forcing tool to mitigate cognitive bias:A randomised control trial

Abstract Background Cognitive bias is an important source of diagnostic error yet is a challenging area to understand and teach. Our aim was to determine whether a cognitive forcing tool can reduce the rates of error in clinical decision making. A secondary objective was to understand the process by which this effect might occur. Methods We hypothesised that using a cognitive forcing tool would reduce diagnostic error rates. To test this hypothesis, a novel online case-based approach was used to conduct a single blinded randomized clinical trial conducted from January 2017 to September 2018. In addition, a qualitative series of “think aloud” interviews were conducted with 20 doctors from a UK teaching hospital in 2018. The primary outcome was the diagnostic error rate when solving bias inducing clinical vignettes. A volunteer sample of medical professionals from across the UK, Republic of Ireland and North America. They ranged in seniority from medical student to Attending Physician. Results Seventy six participants were included in the study. The data showed doctors of all grades routinely made errors related to cognitive bias. There was no difference in error rates between groups (mean 2.8 cases correct in intervention vs 3.1 in control group, 95% CI -0.94 – 0.45 P = 0.49). The qualitative protocol revealed that the cognitive forcing strategy was well received and a produced a subjectively positive impact on doctors’ accuracy and thoughtfulness in clinical cases. Conclusions The quantitative data failed to show an improvement in accuracy despite a positive qualitative experience. There is insufficient evidence to recommend this tool in clinical practice, however the qualitative data suggests such an approach has some merit and face validity to users

Assessing recovery from acidification of European surface waters in the year 2010: evaluation of projections made with the MAGIC model in 1995

In 1999 we used the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) model to project acidification of acid-sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a “ground truth” evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 1995 to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water [NO3–] reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very close to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition

O₂ photoabsorption in the 40 950–41 300 cm⁻¹ region: New Herzberg bands, new absorption lines, and improved spectroscopic data

The technique of cavity ring‐down (CRD) spectroscopy is particularly useful for measuring absorptions of very weak optical transitions. We have in this manner investigated the 40 950–41 300 cm−1 region in O2, where only absorption in the O2(A 3Σ+u–X 3Σ−g) 11‐0 band had been previously identified. Five new bands have been discovered in this range—the A′ 3Δu–X 3Σ−g 12‐0 and 13‐0 bands, the c 1Σ−u–X 3Σ−g 17‐0 and 18‐0 bands, and the A 3Σ+u−X 3Σ−g 12‐0 band. The origins of the F1 and F2 components of the latter lie only 7 cm−1 below the lowest dissociation limit, and 15 lines have been identified. No F3 levels were observed; apparently all are above the dissociation limit. The high instrumental sensitivity of the CRD technique has allowed observation of weak lines of the A–X 11‐0 band, and 12 of the 13 branches have been identified and their intensities measured. A very low upper limit has been set on the intensity of the thirteenth branch, Q13. We find 107 unidentified lines in the region, the stronger ones (19) lying in the vicinity of lines of the A–X 11‐0 band. The weaker ones (88) are spread throughout the spectral region, up to and even beyond the O2dissociation limit, and probably have their origin in transitions to very weakly bound O2 states, which may have atmospheric significance. These weaker lines have intensities that are typically 1%–5% of the strong A–X 11‐0 band lines

Еволюція історичних уявлень про Україну в середньовічній Франції до середини ХVІІ ст.

У статті розглянуто стан ознайомлення французької громадськості ХІ-ХVІІ ст. з Україною, проаналізовано причини цікавості французів до цієї країни на тлі історичних взаємин України та Франції. Автор простежує еволюцію французьких історичних досліджень про Україну у Франції.The author considers the state of acquaintance of the French society of the XVII century with Ukraine, analyses the reasons of the interest the French took in this country on the phone of the historical relations between Ukraine and France and traces the evolution of the French historical studies in Ukraine

Glastir Monitoring & Evaluation Programme. Second year annual report

What is the purpose of Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme? Glastir is the main scheme by which the Welsh Government pays for environmental goods and services whilst the Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (GMEP) evaluates the scheme’s success. Commissioning of the monitoring programme in parallel with the launch of the Glastir scheme provides fast feedback and means payments can be modified to increase effectiveness. The Glastir scheme is jointly funded by the Welsh Government (through the Rural Development Plan) and the EU. GMEP will also support a wide range of other national and international reporting requirements. What is the GMEP approach? GMEP collects evidence for the 6 intended outcomes from the Glastir scheme which are focussed on climate change, water and soil quality, biodiversity, landscape, access and historic environment, woodland creation and management. Activities include; a national rolling monitoring programme of 1km squares; new analysis of long term data from other schemes combining with GMEP data where possible; modelling to estimate future outcomes so that adjustments can be made to maximise impact of payments; surveys to assess wider socio-economic benefits; and development of novel technologies to increase detection and efficiency of future assessments. How has GMEP progressed in this 2nd year? 90 GMEP squares were surveyed in Year 2 to add to the 60 completed in Year 1 resulting in 50% of the 300 GMEP survey squares now being completed. Squares will be revisited on a 4 year cycle providing evidence of change in response to Glastir and other pressures such as changing economics of the farm business, climate change and air pollution. This first survey cycle collects the baseline against which future changes will be assessed. This is important as GMEP work this year has demonstrated land coming into the scheme is different in some respects to land outside the scheme. Therefore, future analysis to detect impact of Glastir will be made both against the national backdrop from land outside the scheme and this baseline data from land in scheme. A wide range of analyses of longterm data has been completed for all Glastir Outcomes with the exception of landscape quality and historic features condition for which limited data is available. This has involved combining data with 2013/14 GMEP data when methods allow. Overall analysis of long term data indicates one of stability but with little evidence of improvement with the exception of headwater quality, greenhouse gas emissions and woodland area for which there has been improvement over the last 20 years. Some headline statistics include: 51% of historic features in excellent or sound condition; two thirds of public rights of way fully open and accessible; improvement in hedgerow management with 85% surveyed cut in the last 3 years but < 1% recently planted; 91% of streams had some level of modification but 60% retained good ecological quality; no change topsoil carbon content over last 25 years. What is innovative? GMEP has developed various new metrics to allow for more streamlined reporting in the future. For example a new Priority Bird species Index for Wales which combines data from 35 species indicates at least half have stable or increasing populations. The new GMEP Visual Quality Landscape Index has been tested involving over 2600 respondents. Results have demonstrated its value as an objective and repeatable method for quantifying change in visual landscape quality. A new unified peat map for Wales has been developed which has been passed to Glastir Contract Managers to improve targeting of payments when negotiating Glastir contracts. An estimate of peat soil contribution to current greenhouse gas emissions due to human modification has been calculated. Models have allowed quantification of land area helping to mitigate rainfall runoff. We are using new molecular tools to explore the effects of Glastir on soil organisms and satellite technologies to quantify e.g. small woody features and landcover change. Finally we are using a community approach to develop a consensus on how to define and report change in High Nature Value Farmland which will be reported in the Year 3 GMEP report