Experimental evaluation of train and test split strategies in link prediction

In link prediction, the goal is to predict which links will appear in the future of an evolving network. To estimate the performance of these models in a supervised machine learning model, disjoint and independent train and test sets are needed. However, objects in a real-world network are inherently related to each other. Therefore, it is far from trivial to separate candidate links into these disjoint sets.Here we characterize and empirically investigate the two dominant approaches from the literature for creating separate train and test sets in link prediction, referred to as random and temporal splits. Comparing the performance of these two approaches on several large temporal network datasets, we find evidence that random splits may result in too optimistic results, whereas a temporal split may give a more fair and realistic indication of performance. Results appear robust to the selection of temporal intervals. These findings will be of interest to researchers that employ link prediction or other machine learning tasks in networks.Computer Systems, Imagery and Medi

Dual-Frequency SIW Slot Array Antenna for Automotive Radar: configurable FoV, Performance Evaluation, and Tolerance Analysis

This paper presents a single-layer SIW longitudinal slot array antenna optimized for high gain and low side lobe levels (SLL) in the W-band, designed for LMRR (Long Medium Range Radar) applications. This design enhances detection range at high frequencies. It also provides a wider azimuth field of view (FOV) at lower frequencies. The approach improves compactness and reduces costs. It eliminates the need for multiple antennas in different radar ranges. The system includes two band pass filters (BPFs) and one power divider. These components integrate into four antenna arrays, each with six slots. The results show a 4.6 dB gain improvement between lower and higher frequency bands. The antenna extends the maximum detection range by 168 m for a vehicle with an RCS of 10 dBsm in a lossless system. Additionally, the study analyses the normalized admittance of the antenna. It examines the effects of slot length, width, and displacement on conductance and susceptance. These findings confirm the antenna's efficiency for radar applications. A comprehensive tolerance analysis was performed to assess the proposed design's robustness under variations in key parameters.</p

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

High-Entropy Liquid Metal Process for Transparent Ultrathin p-Type Gallium Oxide

The naturally self-limiting oxide formed on the surface of liquid metals can be exfoliated and transferred onto various substrates. This oxide layer with a thickness of a few nanometers is typically highly transparent and can be engineered for applications in large-area optoelectronics. While the incorporation of solvated elements into the interfacial oxide of post-transition metal-based liquid metals is demonstrated for n-doping, achieving p-doping in such ultrathin oxide layers remains a significant challenge. In this study, the use of dissolved indium (In), platinum (Pt), gold (Au), palladium (Pd), and copper (Cu) in gallium (Ga)-based alloys is investigated to create a high-entropy liquid metal system. This allows the exfoliation of a p-doped ultrathin oxide layer, predominantly composed of gallium oxide (Ga2O3). The incorporation of these post-transition metals in this high-entropy system results in their atomic dispersion, with Cu exhibiting limited surface presence. The atomically dispersed Pt, Au, and Pd metals scavenge oxygen during exfoliation at moderate temperatures and release them during cooling down, promoting the emergence of trivalent metallic In in Ga oxide layer. This work presents a novel doping strategy at moderate temperatures to achieve p-doped liquid-metal-derived ultrathin Ga2O3 layers, which maintain high transparency

Atomic Dispersion via High-Entropy Liquid Metal Alloys

Gallium-based liquid metal alloys exhibit unconventional and intriguing properties as metallic solvents, demonstrating an exceptional potential to dissolve and reconfigure a vast array of elements within the liquid metal matrix. Leveraging on these distinctive characteristics of gallium-based alloys, the synthesis of high-entropy liquid metal alloys (HELMAs) in low dimensions is reported. The nanoscale HELMAs offer advantages including the solvation of multiple metallic elements at room temperature, while promoting their atomic dispersion at elevated concentrations. Entropy estimations for HELMAs surpass those of high-temperature molten metals, leading to the realization of high-entropy liquid metal systems at room temperature. Through a proof-of-concept hydrogen evolution reaction comparison, the potential of these HELMAs in enhancing the activities of nanocatalysts is demonstrated. In this case, atomic dispersion of Pt is shown in senary GaIn-AuCuPtPd HELMA, contrasting with lower entropy systems in which Pt forms discernible clusters. These presented features can lead to catalytic systems with enhanced and tailored activities

Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19.1 million participants

AbstractBackground: Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.Methods: For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.Findings: We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19.1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127.0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125.7–128.3) in men and 122.3 mm Hg (121.0–123.6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78.7 mm Hg (77.9–79.5) for men and 76.7 mm Hg (75.9–77.6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24.1% (21.4–27.1) in men and 20.1% (17.8–22.5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1.13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.Interpretation: During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.Abstract Background: Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods: For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings: We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19.1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127.0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125.7–128.3) in men and 122.3 mm Hg (121.0–123.6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78.7 mm Hg (77.9–79.5) for men and 76.7 mm Hg (75.9–77.6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24.1% (21.4–27.1) in men and 20.1% (17.8–22.5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1.13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation: During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18.5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18.5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), = 40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m(2) (24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m(2) (21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m(2) (24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m(2) (28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m(2) (21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m(2) (31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI = 35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada

IFI27 transcription is an early predictor for COVID-19 outcomes, a multi-cohort observational study

PurposeRobust biomarkers that predict disease outcomes amongst COVID-19 patients are necessary for both patient triage and resource prioritisation. Numerous candidate biomarkers have been proposed for COVID-19. However, at present, there is no consensus on the best diagnostic approach to predict outcomes in infected patients. Moreover, it is not clear whether such tools would apply to other potentially pandemic pathogens and therefore of use as stockpile for future pandemic preparedness.MethodsWe conducted a multi-cohort observational study to investigate the biology and the prognostic role of interferon alpha-inducible protein 27 (IFI27) in COVID-19 patients.ResultsWe show that IFI27 is expressed in the respiratory tract of COVID-19 patients and elevated IFI27 expression in the lower respiratory tract is associated with the presence of a high viral load. We further demonstrate that the systemic host response, as measured by blood IFI27 expression, is associated with COVID-19 infection. For clinical outcome prediction (e.g., respiratory failure), IFI27 expression displays a high sensitivity (0.95) and specificity (0.83), outperforming other known predictors of COVID-19 outcomes. Furthermore, IFI27 is upregulated in the blood of infected patients in response to other respiratory viruses. For example, in the pandemic H1N1/09 influenza virus infection, IFI27-like genes were highly upregulated in the blood samples of severely infected patients.ConclusionThese data suggest that prognostic biomarkers targeting the family of IFI27 genes could potentially supplement conventional diagnostic tools in future virus pandemics, independent of whether such pandemics are caused by a coronavirus, an influenza virus or another as yet-to-be discovered respiratory virus