Noise and Bias in Eliciting Preferences

In the context of eliciting preferences for decision making under risk, we ask the question: "which might be the 'best' method for eliciting such preferences?". It is well known that different methods differ in terms of the bias in the elicitation; it is rather less well-known that different methods differ in terms of their noisiness. The optimal trade-off depends upon the relative magnitutdes of these two effects. We examine four different elicitation mechanisms (pairwise choice, willingness-to-pay, willingness-to-accept, and certainty equivalents) and estimate both effect. Our results suggest that economists might be better advised to use what appears to be a relatively inefficient elicitation technique (i.e. pairwise choice) in order to avoid trhe bias in better-known and more widely-used techniques.Pairwise choice, willingness-to-pay, willingness-to-accept, errors, noise, biases

Noise and bias in eliciting preferences

In the context of eliciting preferences for decision making under risk, we ask the question: "which might be the 'best' method for eliciting such preferences?". It is well known that different methods differ in terms of the bias in the elicitation; it is rather less well-known that different methods differ in terms of their noisiness. The optimal trade-off depends upon the relative magnitutdes of these two effects. We examine four different elicitation mechanisms (pairwise choice, willingness-to-pay, willingness-to-accept, and certainty equivalents) and estimate both effect. Our results suggest that economists might be better advised to use what appears to be a relatively inefficient elicitation technique (i.e. pairwise choice) in order to avoid trhe bias in better-known and more widely-used techniques.In the context of eliciting preferences for decision making under risk, we ask the question: "which might be the 'best' method for eliciting such preferences?". It is well known that different methods differ in terms of the bias in the elicitation; it is rather less well-known that different methods differ in terms of their noisiness. The optimal trade-off depends upon the relative magnitutdes of these two effects. We examine four different elicitation mechanisms (pairwise choice, willingness-to-pay, willingness-to-accept, and certainty equivalents) and estimate both effect. Our results suggest that economists might be better advised to use what appears to be a relatively inefficient elicitation technique (i.e. pairwise choice) in order to avoid trhe bias in better-known and more widely-used techniques.Refereed Working Papers / of international relevanc

Seeds Buffering for Information Spreading Processes

Seeding strategies for influence maximization in social networks have been studied for more than a decade. They have mainly relied on the activation of all resources (seeds) simultaneously in the beginning; yet, it has been shown that sequential seeding strategies are commonly better. This research focuses on studying sequential seeding with buffering, which is an extension to basic sequential seeding concept. The proposed method avoids choosing nodes that will be activated through the natural diffusion process, which is leading to better use of the budget for activating seed nodes in the social influence process. This approach was compared with sequential seeding without buffering and single stage seeding. The results on both real and artificial social networks confirm that the buffer-based consecutive seeding is a good trade-off between the final coverage and the time to reach it. It performs significantly better than its rivals for a fixed budget. The gain is obtained by dynamic rankings and the ability to detect network areas with nodes that are not yet activated and have high potential of activating their neighbours.Comment: Jankowski, J., Br\'odka, P., Michalski, R., & Kazienko, P. (2017, September). Seeds Buffering for Information Spreading Processes. In International Conference on Social Informatics (pp. 628-641). Springe

Theories for influencer identification in complex networks

In social and biological systems, the structural heterogeneity of interaction networks gives rise to the emergence of a small set of influential nodes, or influencers, in a series of dynamical processes. Although much smaller than the entire network, these influencers were observed to be able to shape the collective dynamics of large populations in different contexts. As such, the successful identification of influencers should have profound implications in various real-world spreading dynamics such as viral marketing, epidemic outbreaks and cascading failure. In this chapter, we first summarize the centrality-based approach in finding single influencers in complex networks, and then discuss the more complicated problem of locating multiple influencers from a collective point of view. Progress rooted in collective influence theory, belief-propagation and computer science will be presented. Finally, we present some applications of influencer identification in diverse real-world systems, including online social platforms, scientific publication, brain networks and socioeconomic systems.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figure

The marginally stable Bethe lattice spin glass revisited

Bethe lattice spins glasses are supposed to be marginally stable, i.e. their equilibrium probability distribution changes discontinuously when we add an external perturbation. So far the problem of a spin glass on a Bethe lattice has been studied only using an approximation where marginally stability is not present, which is wrong in the spin glass phase. Because of some technical difficulties, attempts at deriving a marginally stable solution have been confined to some perturbative regimes, high connectivity lattices or temperature close to the critical temperature. Using the cavity method, we propose a general non-perturbative approach to the Bethe lattice spin glass problem using approximations that should be hopeful consistent with marginal stability.Comment: 23 pages Revised version, hopefully clearer that the first one: six pages longe

PT-symmetry breaking in complex nonlinear wave equations and their deformations

We investigate complex versions of the Korteweg-deVries equations and an Ito type nonlinear system with two coupled nonlinear fields. We systematically construct rational, trigonometric/hyperbolic, elliptic and soliton solutions for these models and focus in particular on physically feasible systems, that is those with real energies. The reality of the energy is usually attributed to different realisations of an antilinear symmetry, as for instance PT-symmetry. It is shown that the symmetry can be spontaneously broken in two alternative ways either by specific choices of the domain or by manipulating the parameters in the solutions of the model, thus leading to complex energies. Surprisingly the reality of the energies can be regained in some cases by a further breaking of the symmetry on the level of the Hamiltonian. In many examples some of the fixed points in the complex solution for the field undergo a Hopf bifurcation in the PT-symmetry breaking process. By employing several different variants of the symmetries we propose many classes of new invariant extensions of these models and study their properties. The reduction of some of these models yields complex quantum mechanical models previously studied.Comment: 50 pages, 39 figures (compressed in order to comply with arXiv policy; higher resolutions maybe obtained from the authors upon request

Analogue read-out chip for Si strip detector modules for LHC experiments

We present a 128-channel analogue front-end chip SCTA128 for readout of silicon strip detectors employed in the inner tracking detectors of LHC experiments. The architecture of the chip and critical design issues are discussed. The performance of the chip has been evaluated in detail in bench tests and is presented in the paper. The chip is used to read out prototype analogue modules compatible in size, functionality and performance with the ATLAS SCT base line modules. Several full size detector modules equipped with SCTA128 chips have been built and tested successfully in the lab with E particles as well as in beam tests

Measurement of the production of charged pions by protons on a tantalum target

A measurement of the double-differential cross-section for the production of charged pions in proton--tantalum collisions emitted at large angles from the incoming beam direction is presented. The data were taken in 2002 with the HARP detector in the T9 beam line of the CERN PS. The pions were produced by proton beams in a momentum range from 3 \GeVc to 12 \GeVc hitting a tantalum target with a thickness of 5% of a nuclear interaction length. The angular and momentum range covered by the experiment (100 \MeVc \le p < 800 \MeVc and 0.35 \rad \le \theta <2.15 \rad) is of particular importance for the design of a neutrino factory. The produced particles were detected using a small-radius cylindrical time projection chamber (TPC) placed in a solenoidal magnet. Track recognition, momentum determination and particle identification were all performed based on the measurements made with the TPC. An elaborate system of detectors in the beam line ensured the identification of the incident particles. Results are shown for the double-differential cross-sections ${{\mathrm{d}^2 \sigma}} / {{\mathrm{d}p\mathrm{d}\theta}}$ at four incident proton beam momenta (3 \GeVc, 5 \GeVc, 8 \GeVc and 12 \GeVc). In addition, the pion yields within the acceptance of typical neutrino factory designs are shown as a function of beam momentum. The measurement of these yields within a single experiment eliminates most systematic errors in the comparison between rates at different beam momenta and between positive and negative pion production.Comment: 49 pages, 31 figures. Version accepted for publication on Eur. Phys. J.

Possible origins of macroscopic left-right asymmetry in organisms

I consider the microscopic mechanisms by which a particular left-right (L/R) asymmetry is generated at the organism level from the microscopic handedness of cytoskeletal molecules. In light of a fundamental symmetry principle, the typical pattern-formation mechanisms of diffusion plus regulation cannot implement the "right-hand rule"; at the microscopic level, the cell's cytoskeleton of chiral filaments seems always to be involved, usually in collective states driven by polymerization forces or molecular motors. It seems particularly easy for handedness to emerge in a shear or rotation in the background of an effectively two-dimensional system, such as the cell membrane or a layer of cells, as this requires no pre-existing axis apart from the layer normal. I detail a scenario involving actin/myosin layers in snails and in C. elegans, and also one about the microtubule layer in plant cells. I also survey the other examples that I am aware of, such as the emergence of handedness such as the emergence of handedness in neurons, in eukaryote cell motility, and in non-flagellated bacteria.Comment: 42 pages, 6 figures, resubmitted to J. Stat. Phys. special issue. Major rewrite, rearranged sections/subsections, new Fig 3 + 6, new physics in Sec 2.4 and 3.4.1, added Sec 5 and subsections of Sec

Measurement of the top quark-pair production cross section with ATLAS in pp collisions at \sqrt{s}=7\TeV

A measurement of the production cross-section for top quark pairs(\ttbar) in $pp$ collisions at \sqrt{s}=7 \TeV is presented using data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in two different topologies: single lepton (electron $e$ or muon $\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least four jets, and dilepton ($ee$, $\mu\mu$ or $e\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least two jets. In a data sample of 2.9 pb-1, 37 candidate events are observed in the single-lepton topology and 9 events in the dilepton topology. The corresponding expected backgrounds from non-\ttbar Standard Model processes are estimated using data-driven methods and determined to be $12.2 \pm 3.9$ events and $2.5 \pm 0.6$ events, respectively. The kinematic properties of the selected events are consistent with SM \ttbar production. The inclusive top quark pair production cross-section is measured to be \sigmattbar=145 \pm 31 ^{+42}_{-27} pb where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The measurement agrees with perturbative QCD calculations.Comment: 30 pages plus author list (50 pages total), 9 figures, 11 tables, CERN-PH number and final journal adde