Expected Payments and Considerations for the New ACRE Program

The 2008 Farm Bill provided an option for receiving commodity program payments through existing programs or a new revenue-based alternative – the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program. ACRE is a state-level revenue program which, if elected, replaces the price-based countercyclical program. Enrollment requires the forfeiture of 20 percent of a producer’s direct payments and reduces loan rates by 30 percent. This article provides estimates of long-term expected ACRE payments for corn, soybean, and wheat acres across a variety of states. Within the cornbelt, expected ACRE payments are similar across regions for each of the crops considered, and will likely exceed the required reduction in direct payments. Outside of the cornbelt, expected ACRE payments vary considerably.Farm Management, Production Economics,

Regeneration experiments below 10K in a regenerative-cycle cryocooler

At temperatures below 10K, regenerative cycle cryocoolers are limited by regeneration losses in the helium working fluid which result from the decreasing heat capacity of the regenerating material and the increasing density of helium. Experiments examining several approaches to improving the low-temperature regeneration in a four-stage regenerative cycle cooler constructed primarily of fiberglass materials are discussed. Using an interchangeable fourth stage, the experiments included configurations with multiple regeneration passages, and a static helium volume for increased heat capacity. Experiments using helium-3 as the working fluid and a Malone stage are planned. Results indicate that, using these techniques, it should be possible to construct a regenerative cycle cooler which will operate below 6K

Risk and Incentives: A Not-So-Tenuous Trade-off

Risk and Uncertainty,

USSR Space Life Sciences Digest, volume 1, no. 4

An overview of the developments and direction of the USSR Space Life Sciences Program is given. Highlights of launches, program development, and mission planning are given. Results of ground-based research and space flight studies are summarized. Topics covered include: space medicine and physiology; space biology, and life sciences and technology

A Spatial Approach to Addressing Weather Derivative Basis Risk: A Drought Insurance Example

Risk and Uncertainty,

Readdressing the Fertilizer Problem

The production literature has shown that inputs such as fertilizer can be defined as risk-increasing. However, farmers also consistently overapply nitrogen. A model of optimal input use under uncertainty is used to address this paradox. Using experimental data, a stochastic production relationship between yield and soil nitrate is estimated. Numerical results show that input uncertainty may cause farmers to overapply nitrogen. Survey data suggest that farmers are risk averse, but prefer small chances of high yields compared to small chances of crop failures when expected yields are equivalent. Furthermore, yield risk and yield variability are not equivalent.corn, nitrogen fertilizer, risk-increasing, yield risk, Crop Production/Industries,

Prediction of annual joint rain fade on EHF networks by weighted rain field selection

©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We present a computationally efficient method to predict joint rain fade on arbitrary networks of microwave links. Methods based on synthetic rain fields composed of a superposition of rain cells have been shown to produce useful predictions of joint fade, with low computational overhead. Other methods using rain fields derived from radar systems have much higher computational overhead but provide better predictions. The proposed method combines the best features of both methods by using a small number of measured rain fields to produce annual fade predictions. Rain fields are grouped into heavy rain and light rain groups by maximum rain rate. A small selection of rain fields from each group are downscaled and fade predictions generated by pseudointegration of specific attenuation. This paper presents a method to optimize the weights used to combine the heavy rain and light rain fade predictions to yield an estimate of the average annual distribution. The algorithm presented yields estimates of average annual fade distributions with an error small compared to year-to-year variation, using only 0.2% of the annual data set of rain fields

Wind tunnel test results of a new leading edge flap design for highly swept wings, a vortex flap

A leading edge flap design for highly swept wings, called a vortex flap, was tested on an arrow wing model in a low speed wind tunnel. A vortex flap differs from a conventional plain flap in that it has a leading edge tab which is counterdeflected from the main portion of the flap. This results in intentional separation at the flap leading edge, causing a vortex to form and lie on the flap. By trapping this vortex, the vortex flap can result in significantly improved wing flow characteristics relative to conventional flaps at moderate to high angles of attack, as demonstrated by the flow visualization results of this tests

Measurement of Farm Credit Risk: SUR Model and Simulation Approach

The study addresses problems in measuring credit risk under the structure model, and then proposes a seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) to predict farms’ ability in meeting their current and anticipated obligations in the next 12 months. The empirical model accounts for both the dependence structure and the dynamic feature of the structure model, and is used for estimating asset correlation using FBFM data for 1995-2004. Farm credit risk is then predicted by copula based simulation process with historical default rates as benchmark. Results are reported and compared to previous studies on farm default.Credit Risk Measurement, Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model, Simulation, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

Evaluating Yield Models for Crop Insurance Rating

Generated crop insurance rates depend critically on the distributional assumptions of the underlying crop yield loss model. Using farm level corn yield data from 1972-2008, we revisit the problem of examining in-sample goodness-of-fit measures across a set of flexible parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric distributions. Simulations are also conducted to investigate the out-of-sample efficiency properties of several competing distributions. The results indicate that more parameterized distributional forms fit the data better in-sample due to the fact that they have more parameters, but are generally less efficient out-of-sample–and in some cases more biased–than more parsimonious forms which also fit the data adequately, such as the Weibull. The results highlight the relative advantages of alternative distributions in terms of the bias-efficiency tradeoff in both in- and out-of-sample frameworks.Yield distributions, Crop Insurance, Weibull Distribution, Beta Distribution, Mixture Distribution, Out-of-Sample Efficiency, Goodness-of-Fit, Insurance Rating Efficiency, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Land Economics/Use,