Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone

International audienceIn this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996?2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs

Halocarbon ozone depletion and global warming potentials

Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not contain an H atom, are not oxidized or photolyzed in the troposphere. These compounds are transported into the stratosphere where they decompose and can lead to chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion. The hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs or HFCs), in particular those proposed as substitutes for CFCs, contain at least one hydrogen atom in the molecule, which confers on these compounds a much greater sensitivity toward oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere, resulting in much shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CFCs, and consequently lower potential for depleting ozone. The available information is reviewed which relates to the lifetime of these compounds (HCFCs and HFCs) in the troposphere, and up-to-date assessments are reported of the potential relative effects of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, and halons on stratospheric ozone and global climate (through 'greenhouse' global warming)

Comparison of model estimates of the effects of aviation emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane

One of the significant uncertainties in understanding the effects of aviation on climate is the effects of aviation emissions on ozone and atmospheric chemistry. In this study the effects of aviation emissions on atmospheric ozone for 2006 and two projections for 2050 are compared among seven models. The models range in complexity from a two-dimensional coupled model to three-dimensional offline and fully coupled three-dimensional chemistry-climate models. This study is the first step in a critical assessment and comparison among these model results. Changes in tropospheric O3 burdens range from 2.3 Tg-O3/Tg-N to 3.0 Tg-O3/Tg-N, ozone radiative forcings range from 6 to 37 mW/m2, and methane radiative forcings range from -8.3 to -12.5 mW/m2 for the 2006 aviation emissions. As a group, the chemistry transport models tend to have similar responses while the fully coupled models tend to separate from this group and do not show similar responses to each other. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Modelling future changes to the stratospheric source gas injection of biogenic bromocarbons

Simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) show a future increase in the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of biogenic very short-lived substances (VSLS). For 2000, the modelled SGI of bromine from VSLS is similar to 1.7 parts per trillion (pptv) and largest over the tropical West Pacific. For 2100, this increases to similar to 2.0 and similar to 2.7 pptv when the model is forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The increase is largely due to stronger tropical deep convection transporting more CHBr3 to the lower stratosphere. For CH2Br2, CHBr2Cl, CH2BrCl and CHBrCl2, changes to primary oxidant OH determines their SGI contribution. Under RCP 4.5 (moderate warming), OH increases in a warmer, more humid troposphere. Under RCP 8.5 (extreme warming) OH decreases significantly due to a large methane increase, allowing greater SGI of bromine from these VSLS. Potentially enhanced VSLS emissions in the future would further increase these estimates. Citation: Hossaini, R., et al. (2012), Modelling future changes to the stratospheric source gas injection of biogenic bromocarbons, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20813, doi:10.1029/2012GL053401

Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone

In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996–2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs.</p

Our Globally Changing Climate

Since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth's climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences. While this report focuses especially on observed and projected future changes for the United States, it is important to understand those changes in the global context (this chapter). The world has warmed over the last 150 years, especially over the last six decades, and that warming has triggered many other changes to Earth's climate. Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Thousands of studies conducted by tens of thousands of scientists around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea level; and an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Rainfall patterns and storms are changing, and the occurrence of droughts is shifting

Levels of α7 integrin and laminin-α2 are increased following prednisone treatment in the mdx mouse and GRMD dog models of Duchenne muscular dystrophy

SUMMARY Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a fatal neuromuscular disease for which there is no cure and limited treatment options. Prednisone is currently the first line treatment option for DMD and studies have demonstrated that it improves muscle strength. Although prednisone has been used for the treatment of DMD for decades, the mechanism of action of this drug remains unclear. Recent studies have shown that the α7β1 integrin is a major modifier of disease progression in mouse models of DMD and is therefore a target for drug-based therapies. In this study we examined whether prednisone increased α7β1 integrin levels in mdx mouse and GRMD dog models and myogenic cells from humans with DMD. Our results show that prednisone promotes an increase in α7 integrin protein in cultured myogenic cells and in the muscle of mdx and GRMD animal models of DMD. The prednisone-mediated increase in α7 integrin was associated with increased laminin-α2 in prednisone-treated dystrophin-deficient muscle. Together, our results suggest that prednisone acts in part through increased merosin in the muscle basal lamina and through sarcolemmal stabilization of α7β1 integrin in dystrophin-deficient muscle. These results indicate that therapies that target an increase in muscle α7β1 integrin, its signaling pathways and/or laminin could be therapeutic in DMD