Developments in an HF Nowcasting Model for Trans-Polar Airline Routes

HF communications can be difficult in the polar regions since they are strongly influenced by space weather events. Airline communications within the polar regions rely on HF communications and improved nowcasting and forecasting techniques in support of this are now required. Previous work has demonstrated that ray tracing through a realistic, historical ionosphere provides signal coverage in good agreement with measurements. This paper presents an approach to providing a real-time ionospheric model by assimilating TEC measurements and validates it against observations from ionosondes

Transformer-level modeling of geomagnetically induced currents in New Zealand's South Island

During space weather events, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can be induced in high-voltage transmission networks, damaging individual transformers within substations. A common approach to modeling a transmission network has been to assume that every substation can be represented by a single resistance to Earth. We have extended that model by building a transformer-level network representation of New Zealand’s South Island transmission network. We represent every transformer winding at each earthed substation in the network by its known direct current resistance. Using this network representation significantly changes the GIC hazard assessment, compared to assessments based on the earlier assumption. Further, we have calculated the GIC flowing through a single phase of every individual transformer winding in the network. These transformer-level GIC calculations show variation in GICs between transformers within a substation due to transformer characteristics and connections. The transformer-level GIC calculations alter the hazard assessment by up to an order of magnitude in some places. In most cases the calculated GIC variations match measured variations in GIC flowing through the same transformers. This comparison with an extensive set of observations demonstrates the importance of transformer-level GIC calculations in models used for hazard assessment

The effect of induced currents in the sea on magnetic bays observed at a coastal observatory

It is widely accepted that return currents from the auroral electrojet are responsible for the magnetic bays in the D component. The different directions of the return currents, at either end of the electrojet, means that the sign of the D bay should change as the station moves from east to west of the central meridian of the electrojet. However, there is confusion as to whether this change occurs, giving rise to different models for the substorm current system. The possible effect of induced currents on magnetic bays is shown to be significant and should be examined for each observatory before using their magnetic bays to infer substorm current systems. An analysis of magnetic bays at Halley Bay (75°S, 27°W), a coastal site in Antarctica, shows that a change in the sign of D bays does not occur. It is shown that induced currents flowing in the sea, parallel to the coast, would have an effect that is consistent with the observations