Statistical mechanics of triangulated ribbons

We use computer simulations and scaling arguments to investigate statistical and structural properties of a semiflexible ribbon composed of isosceles triangles. We study two different models, one where the bending energy is calculated from the angles between the normal vectors of adjacent triangles, the second where the edges are viewed as semiflexible polymers so that the bending energy is related to the angles between the tangent vectors of next-nearest neighbor triangles. The first model can be solved exactly whereas the second is more involved. It was recently introduced by Liverpool and Golestanian Phys.Rev.Lett. 80, 405 (1998), Phys.Rev.E 62, 5488 (2000) as a model for double-stranded biopolymers such as DNA. Comparing observables such as the autocorrelation functions of the tangent vectors and the bond-director field, the probability distribution functions of the end-to-end distance, and the mean squared twist we confirm the existence of local twist correlation, but find no indications for other predicted features such as twist-stretch coupling, kinks, or oscillations in the autocorrelation function of the bond-director field.Comment: 10 pages, 13 figures. submitted to PRE, revised versio

On the Possibility of Optical Unification in Heterotic Strings

Recently J. Giedt discussed a mechanism, entitled optical unification, whereby string scale unification is facilitated via exotic matter with intermediate scale mass. This mechanism guarantees that a virtual MSSM unification below the string scale is extrapolated from the running of gauge couplings upward from M_Z^o when an intermediate scale desert is assumed. In this letter we explore the possibility of optical unification within the context of weakly coupled heterotic strings. In particular, we investigate this for models of free fermionic construction containing the NAHE set of basis vectors. This class is of particular interest for optical unification, because it provides a standard hypercharge embedding within SO(10), giving the standard k_Y = 5/3 hypercharge level, which was shown necessary for optical unification. We present a NAHE model for which the set of exotic SU(3)_C triplet/anti-triplet pairs, SU(2)_L doublets, and non-Abelian singlets with hypercharge offers the possibility of optical unification. Whether this model can realize optical unification is conditional upon these exotics not receiving Fayet-Iliopoulos (FI) scale masses when a flat direction of scalar vacuum expectation values is non-perturbatively chosen to cancel the FI D-term, xi, generated by the anomalous U(1)-breaking Green-Schwarz-Dine-Seiberg-Wittten mechanism. A study of perturbative flat directions and their phenomenological implications for this model is underway. This paper is a product of the NFS Research Experiences for Undergraduates and the NSF High School Summer Science Research programs at Baylor University.Comment: 16 pages. Standard Late

Long-term river invertebrate community responses to groundwater and surface water management operations

River flow regimes have been transformed by groundwater and surface water management operations globally, prompting widespread ecological responses. Yet, empirical evidence quantifying the simultaneous effects of groundwater and surface water management operations on freshwater ecosystems remains limited. This study combines a multi-decadal freshwater invertebrate dataset (1995-2016) with groundwater model outputs simulating the effects of different anthropogenic flow alterations (e.g. groundwater abstraction, effluent water returns) and river discharges. A suite of flow alteration- and flow-ecology relationships were modelled that tested different invertebrate community responses (taxonomic, functional, flow response guilds, individual taxa). Most flow alteration-ecology relationships were not statistically significant, highlighting the absence of consistent, detectable ecological responses to long-term water management operations. A small number of significant statistical models provided insights into how flow alterations transformed specific ecological assets; including Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera taxa which are rheophilic in nature being positively associated with groundwater abstraction effects reducing river discharges by 0-15%. This represents a key finding from a water resource management operation perspective given that such flow alteration conditions were observed on average in over two-thirds of the study sites examined. In a small number of instances, specific invertebrate responses displayed relative declines associated with the most severe groundwater abstraction effects and artificial hydrological inputs (predominantly effluent water returns). The strongest flow-ecology relationships were recorded during spring months, when invertebrate communities were most responsive to antecedent minimum and maximum discharges, and average flow conditions in the preceding summer months. Results from this study provide new evidence indicating how groundwater and surface water resources can be managed to conserve riverine ecological assets. Moreover, the ensemble of flow alteration- and flow-ecology relationships established in this study could be used to guide environmental flow strategies. Such findings are of global importance given that future climatic change and rising societal water demands are likely to further transform river flow regimes and threaten freshwater ecosystems

Characterizing Covariant Trajectories of Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis across Symptomatic and Functional Domains

Objective: The authors sought to characterize differences in outcomes among help-seeking individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis by identifying covariant longitudinal patterns of symptoms and functioning. Methods: Group-based multitrajectory modeling was applied to longitudinal ratings of four symptom domains (positive, negative, disorganized, general) and general functioning among clinical high-risk individuals in an initial discovery sample (N=422). An independent sample (N=133) was used to test replicability. Results: Three trajectory groups were identified among clinical high-risk individuals in the discovery sample: group 1 (30%) exhibited substantial improvement across all domains, with half reaching positive outcomes for both functioning and positive symptoms; group 2 (49%) exhibited moderate impairments across domains, with approximately one-quarter meeting criteria for positive outcomes; the remaining participants (group 3; 22%) exhibited consistent levels of severe impairment across domains and did not experience positive outcomes. These trajectory groups and remission patterns were replicated in an independent sample. Conclusions: Replicable subgroups of help-seeking clinical high-risk cases can be ascertained based on distinctive profiles of change over time in symptoms and functioning. Within each of the three identified subgroups, similar patterns of change (i.e., rapid, moderate, or no improvement) were observed across the four symptom domains and functioning. This consistency of change over time across domains within each subgroup is a novel observation supporting the syndrome consistency of clinical high-risk symptoms and signs. The observed trajectory subgroups are suggestive of different degrees of need for clinical interventions, ranging from minimal or supportive for about one-third of cases to increasingly intensive among the remainder

Implementation Evaluation of a Complex Intervention to Improve Timeliness of Care for Veterans with Transient Ischemic Attack

Background: The Protocol-guided Rapid Evaluation of Veterans Experiencing New Transient Neurologic Symptoms (PREVENT) program was designed to address systemic barriers to providing timely guideline-concordant care for patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA). Objective: We evaluated an implementation bundle used to promote local adaptation and adoption of a multi-component, complex quality improvement (QI) intervention to improve the quality of TIA care Bravata et al. (BMC Neurology 19:294, 2019). Design: A stepped-wedge implementation trial with six geographically diverse sites. Participants: The six facility QI teams were multi-disciplinary, clinical staff. Interventions: PREVENT employed a bundle of key implementation strategies: team activation; external facilitation; and a community of practice. This strategy bundle had direct ties to four constructs from the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR): Champions, Reflecting & Evaluating, Planning, and Goals & Feedback. Main measures: Using a mixed-methods approach guided by the CFIR and data matrix analyses, we evaluated the degree to which implementation success and clinical improvement were associated with implementation strategies. The primary outcomes were the number of completed implementation activities, the level of team organization and > 15 points improvement in the Without Fail Rate (WFR) over 1 year. Key results: Facility QI teams actively engaged in the implementation strategies with high utilization. Facilities with the greatest implementation success were those with central champions whose teams engaged in planning and goal setting, and regularly reflected upon their quality data and evaluated their progress against their QI plan. The strong presence of effective champions acted as a pre-condition for the strong presence of Reflecting & Evaluating, Goals & Feedback, and Planning (rather than the other way around), helping to explain how champions at the +2 level influenced ongoing implementation. Conclusions: The CFIR-guided bundle of implementation strategies facilitated the local implementation of the PREVENT QI program and was associated with clinical improvement in the national VA healthcare system

Primary bilateral guttural pouch empyema in a two-month-old foal

The present report describes a 2-month-old foal which signs of respiratory infectious disease, bilateral retropharyngeal swelling and nasal mucopurulent discharge, suggesting guttural pouch empyema. The owners reported that the foal lived in a herd that experienced an outbreak of strangles. Foals younger than 3 months are usually protected against infectious diseases, however in this case, the foal was exposed to an environment heavily populated by Streptococcus equi equi during the outbreak of strangles. Although uncommon in such young animals, the foal was infected and developed a primary bilateral guttural pouch empyema, without signs of lymph nodes alterationO presente trabalho descreve o caso de um potro de dois meses de idade com sinais de infecção respiratória, distensão bilateral da região retrofaríngea e secreção nasal mucopurulenta, sugerindo empiema de bolsa gutural. Os proprietários relataram que o potro pertencia a uma tropa que havia sido acometida por garrotilho recentemente. Potros com menos de 3 meses de idade são normalmente protegidos contra as doenças infecciosas, no entanto, este potro foi exposto a um ambiente altamente contaminado por Streptococcus equi equi durante o surto de garrotilho. Embora incomum em animais tão jovens, o potro foi infectado e desenvolveu um empiema primário de bolsa gutural, não havendo sinais de acometimento dos linfonodosUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias Departamento de Clínica e Cirurgia VeterináriaUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias Departamento de Clínica e Cirurgia Veterinári

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Age at first birth in women is genetically associated with increased risk of schizophrenia

Prof. Paunio on PGC:n jäsenPrevious studies have shown an increased risk for mental health problems in children born to both younger and older parents compared to children of average-aged parents. We previously used a novel design to reveal a latent mechanism of genetic association between schizophrenia and age at first birth in women (AFB). Here, we use independent data from the UK Biobank (N = 38,892) to replicate the finding of an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women, and to estimate the genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in women stratified into younger and older groups. We find evidence for an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women (P-value = 1.12E-05), and we show genetic heterogeneity between younger and older AFB groups (P-value = 3.45E-03). The genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in the younger AFB group is -0.16 (SE = 0.04) while that between schizophrenia and AFB in the older AFB group is 0.14 (SE = 0.08). Our results suggest that early, and perhaps also late, age at first birth in women is associated with increased genetic risk for schizophrenia in the UK Biobank sample. These findings contribute new insights into factors contributing to the complex bio-social risk architecture underpinning the association between parental age and offspring mental health.Peer reviewe

Contribuição da heterogeneidade de linhas de regressão para a recomendação de novas cultivares

O objetivo deste trabalho foi evidenciar a contribuição da análise da heterogeneidade das linhas de regressão para a recomendação de novas cultivares, pela metodologia de Eberhart & Russell. Um experimento com dez genótipos de arroz, avaliados em oito ambientes, foi utilizado para ilustração da metodologia. Utilizou-se o delineamento de blocos ao acaso com três repetições. A soma dos quadrados da interação genótipo x ambiente (GxA) foi decomposta para avaliação da heterogeneidade das linhas de regressão e dos desvios acumulados da linearidade. A heterogeneidade das linhas de regressão foi analisada com o uso do teste t sobre os coeficientes de regressão linear dos genótipos. Os dois componentes ortogonais da interação GxA foram significativos. A análise da heterogeneidade das linhas de regressão permitiu detectar incoerências na adaptabilidade dos genótipos, o que diminui as chances de recomendações equivocadas de cultivares. Os genótipos foram classificados de acordo com a eficiência da metodologia de Eberhart & Russell em explicar a natureza do desempenho genotípico diante das mudanças nos ambientes. A avaliação da heterogeneidade das linhas de regressão contribui para a recomendação mais efetiva de novas cultivares com a metodologia de Eberhart & Russell