Generalising the logistic map through the qq-product

We investigate a generalisation of the logistic map as $x_{n+1}=1-ax_{n}\otimes_{q_{map}} x_{n}$ ($-1 \le x_{n} \le 1$, $0<a\le2$) where $\otimes_q$ stands for a generalisation of the ordinary product, known as $q$-product [Borges, E.P. Physica A {\bf 340}, 95 (2004)]. The usual product, and consequently the usual logistic map, is recovered in the limit $q\to 1$, The tent map is also a particular case for $q_{map}\to\infty$. The generalisation of this (and others) algebraic operator has been widely used within nonextensive statistical mechanics context (see C. Tsallis, {\em Introduction to Nonextensive Statistical Mechanics}, Springer, NY, 2009). We focus the analysis for $q_{map}>1$ at the edge of chaos, particularly at the first critical point $a_c$, that depends on the value of $q_{map}$. Bifurcation diagrams, sensitivity to initial conditions, fractal dimension and rate of entropy growth are evaluated at $a_c(q_{map})$, and connections with nonextensive statistical mechanics are explored.Comment: 12 pages, 23 figures, Dynamics Days South America. To be published in Journal of Physics: Conference Series (JPCS - IOP

Wave-sheltered embayments are recruitment hotspots for tropical fishes on temperate reefs

© Inter-Research 2016. Poleward redistribution of species, facilitated by global warming, will be compromised if habitats at higher latitudes do not support the species' early life stages. For tropical reef fishes, reef structure may mediate colonisation of temperate regions; however, an understanding of key habitat requirements for colonisation is currently lacking. We show that density, diversity (taxonomic and trophic) and species richness of newly recruited tropical reef fishes were greater in embayed than exposed reefs in 2 mid-latitude temperate zones, where coastal waters are rapidly warming: southeastern Australia (30.5-33° S) and western Japan (32-33.5° N). Dietary generalists (e.g. planktivores and herbivores) and specialists (corallivores) associated more commonly with embayed reefs. Wave exposure was a stronger predictor of the density and richness of dietary generalists than water temperature, latitude, predatory fish densities, reef rugosities, benthos and distance to river mouths. Corallivores were strongly associated with branching corals, which were exclusive to highly sheltered reefs. We also explored habitat associations of 7 focal species within a coral reef, One Tree Island (OTI), Great Barrier Reef. Four species associated with wave - sheltered over exposed reef on OTI and temperate Australian reef. However, Abudefduf vaigiensis, Pomacentrus coelestis and Acanthurus triostegus associated more with wave-sheltered reef in temperate regions. We hypothesise that cool temperate waters promote greater sheltering of some warm-adapted, tropical fishes by impacting their swimming/physiological performance. Results suggest availability of embayed temperate reefs may influence where some tropical fishes colonise with warming waters, through impacting recruitment. Wave exposure of reefs should be considered when predicting geographic responses of tropical fishes to climate change

UpLIFTIng PFI: does LIFT improve public-private procurement?

The Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and Local Improvement Finance Trust (LIFT) were both introduced by the UK government as part of a drive to improve public service provision. Both PFI and LIFT focus on leveraging the key strengths of the public and private sectors when developing new facilities. This paper does not seek to question the need for new infrastructure, but rather discusses the difficulties encountered when trying to analyse LIFT as a system and when evaluating whether it can address earlier concerns about the PFI procurement process. Our analysis suggests that it is difficult to predict whether LIFT will be capable of delivering on its promise of providing cost-effective, bespoke Primary Care facilities

Soil methane sink capacity response to a long-term wildfire chronosequence in Northern Sweden

Boreal forests occupy nearly one fifth of the terrestrial land surface and are recognised as globally important regulators of carbon (C) cycling and greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon sequestration processes in these forests include assimilation of CO2 into biomass and subsequently into soil organic matter, and soil microbial oxidation of methane (CH4). In this study we explored how ecosystem retrogression, which drives vegetation change, regulates the important process of soil CH4 oxidation in boreal forests. We measured soil CH4 oxidation processes on a group of 30 forested islands in northern Sweden differing greatly in fire history, and collectively representing a retrogressive chronosequence, spanning 5000 years. Across these islands the build-up of soil organic matter was observed to increase with time since fire disturbance, with a significant correlation between greater humus depth and increased net soil CH4 oxidation rates. We suggest that this increase in net CH4 oxidation rates, in the absence of disturbance, results as deeper humus stores accumulate and provide niches for methanotrophs to thrive. By using this gradient we have discovered important regulatory controls on the stability of soil CH4 oxidation processes that could not have not been explored through shorter-term experiments. Our findings indicate that in the absence of human interventions such as fire suppression, and with increased wildfire frequency, the globally important boreal CH4 sink could be diminished

Snapshot Provisioning of Cloud Application Stacks to Face Traffic Surges

Traffic surges, like the Slashdot effect, occur when a web application is overloaded by a huge number of requests, potentially leading to unavailability. Unfortunately, such traffic variations are generally totally unplanned, of great amplitude, within a very short period, and a variable delay to return to a normal regime. In this report, we introduce PeakForecast as an elastic middleware solution to detect and absorb a traffic surge. In particular, PeakForecast can, from a trace of queries received in the last seconds, minutes or hours, to detect if the underlying system is facing a traffic surge or not, and then estimate the future traffic using a forecast model with an acceptable precision, thereby calculating the number of resources required to absorb the remaining traffic to come. We validate our solution by experimental results demonstrating that it can provide instantaneous elasticity of resources for traffic surges observed on the Japanese version of Wikipedia during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011.Les pics de trafic, tels que l'effet Slashdot, apparaissent lorsqu'une application web doit faire face un nombre important de requêtes qui peut potentiellement entraîner une mise hors service de l'application. Malheureusement, de telles variations de traffic sont en général totalement imprévues et d'une grande amplitude, arrivent pendant une très courte période de temps et le retour à un régime normal prend un délai variable. Dans ce rapport, nous présentons PeakForecast qui est une solution intergicielle élastique pour détecter et absorber les pics de trafic. En particulier, PeakForecast peut, à partir des traces de requêtes reçues dans les dernières secondes, minutes ou heures, détecter si le système sous-jacent fait face ou non à un pic de trafic, estimer le trafic futur en utilisant un modèle de prédiction suffisamment précis, et calculer le nombre de ressources nécessaires à l'absorption du trafic restant à venir. Nous validons notre solution avec des résultats expérimentaux qui démontrent qu'elle fournit une élasticité instantanée des ressources pour des pics de trafic qui ont été observés sur la version japonaise de Wikipedia lors de l'accident nucléaire de Fukushima Daiichi en mars 2011

A review of the methodological features of systematic reviews in maternal medicine

Background In maternal medicine, research evidence is scattered making it difficult to access information for clinical decision making. Systematic reviews of good methodological quality are essential to provide valid inferences and to produce usable evidence summaries to guide management. This review assesses the methodological features of existing systematic reviews in maternal medicine, comparing Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews in maternal medicine. Methods Medline, Embase, Database of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) were searched for relevant reviews published between 2001 and 2006. We selected those reviews in which a minimum of two databases were searched and the primary outcome was related to the maternal condition. The selected reviews were assessed for information on framing of question, literature search and methods of review. Results Out of 2846 citations, 68 reviews were selected. Among these, 39 (57%) were Cochrane reviews. Most of the reviews (50/68, 74%) evaluated therapeutic interventions. Overall, 54/68 (79%) addressed a focussed question. Although 64/68 (94%) reviews had a detailed search description, only 17/68 (25%) searched without language restriction. 32/68 (47%) attempted to include unpublished data and 11/68 (16%) assessed for the risk of missing studies quantitatively. The reviews had deficiencies in the assessment of validity of studies and exploration for heterogeneity. When compared to Cochrane reviews, other reviews were significantly inferior in specifying questions (OR 20.3, 95% CI 1.1–381.3, p = 0.04), framing focussed questions (OR 30.9, 95% CI 3.7- 256.2, p = 0.001), use of unpublished data (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.9–16.4, p = 0.002), assessment for heterogeneity (OR 38.1, 95%CI 2.1, 688.2, p = 0.01) and use of meta-analyses (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.3–10.8, p = 0.02). Conclusion This study identifies areas which have a strong influence on maternal morbidity and mortality but lack good quality systematic reviews. Overall quality of the existing systematic reviews was variable. Cochrane reviews were of better quality as compared to other reviews. There is a need for good quality systematic reviews to inform practice in maternal medicine

The rate of entropy increase at the edge of chaos

Under certain conditions, the rate of increase of the statistical entropy of a simple, fully chaotic, conservative system is known to be given by a single number, characteristic of this system, the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy rate. This connection is here generalized to a simple dissipative system, the logistic map, and especially to the chaos threshold of the latter, the edge of chaos. It is found that, in the edge-of-chaos case, the usual Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy is not appropriate. Instead, the non-extensive entropy $S_q\equiv \frac{1-\sum_{i=1}^W p_i^q}{q-1}$, must be used. The latter contains a parameter q, the entropic index which must be given a special value $q^*\ne 1$ (for q=1 one recovers the usual entropy) characteristic of the edge-of-chaos under consideration. The same q^* enters also in the description of the sensitivity to initial conditions, as well as in that of the multifractal spectrum of the attractor.Comment: 6 pages, Latex, 4 figures included, final version accepted for publication in Physics Letters

Epidemic space

The aim of this article is to highlight the importance of 'spatiality' in understanding the materialization of risk society and cultivation of risk sensibilities. More specifically it provides a cultural analysis of pathogen virulence (as a social phenomenon) by means of tracing and mapping the spatial flows that operate in the uncharted zones between the microphysics of infection and the macrophysics of epidemics. It will be argued that epidemic space consists of three types of forces: the vector, the index and the vortex. It will draw on Latour's Actor Network Theory to argue that epidemic space is geared towards instability when the vortex (of expanding associations and concerns) displaces the index (of finding a single cause)

Finding non-eclipsing binaries through pulsational phase modulation

We present a method for finding binaries among pulsating stars that were observed by the Kepler Mission. We use entire four-year light curves to accurately mea- sure the frequencies of the strongest pulsation modes, then track the pulsation phases at those frequencies in 10-d segments. This produces a series of time-delay measurements in which binarity is apparent as a periodic modulation whose amplitude gives the projected light travel time across the orbit. Fourier analysis of this time-delay curve provides the pa- rameters of the orbit, including the period, eccentricity, angle of ascending node and time of periastron passage. Differentiating the time-delay curve yields the full radial-velocity curve directly from the Kepler photometry, without the need for spectroscopy. We show examples with delta Scuti stars having large numbers of pulsation modes, including one system in which both components of the binary are pulsating. The method is straightfor- ward to automate, thus radial velocity curves can be derived for hundreds of non-eclipsing binary stars from Kepler photometry alone. This contribution is based largely upon the work by Murphy et al. [1], describing the phase-modulation method in detail