A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

A new rhynchocephalian from the late jurassic of Germany with a dentition that is unique amongst tetrapods.

Rhynchocephalians, the sister group of squamates (lizards and snakes), are only represented by the single genus Sphenodon today. This taxon is often considered to represent a very conservative lineage. However, rhynchocephalians were common during the late Triassic to latest Jurassic periods, but rapidly declined afterwards, which is generally attributed to their supposedly adaptive inferiority to squamates and/or Mesozoic mammals, which radiated at that time. New finds of Mesozoic rhynchocephalians can thus provide important new information on the evolutionary history of the group. A new fossil relative of Sphenodon from the latest Jurassic of southern Germany, Oenosaurus muehlheimensis gen. et sp. nov., presents a dentition that is unique amongst tetrapods. The dentition of this taxon consists of massive, continuously growing tooth plates, probably indicating a crushing dentition, thus representing a previously unknown trophic adaptation in rhynchocephalians. The evolution of the extraordinary dentition of Oenosaurus from the already highly specialized Zahnanlage generally present in derived rhynchocephalians demonstrates an unexpected evolutionary plasticity of these animals. Together with other lines of evidence, this seriously casts doubts on the assumption that rhynchocephalians are a conservative and adaptively inferior lineage. Furthermore, the new taxon underlines the high morphological and ecological diversity of rhynchocephalians in the latest Jurassic of Europe, just before the decline of this lineage on this continent. Thus, selection pressure by radiating squamates or Mesozoic mammals alone might not be sufficient to explain the demise of the clade in the Late Mesozoic, and climate change in the course of the fragmentation of the supercontinent of Pangaea might have played a major role

Phosphorylation of the androgen receptor is associated with reduced survival in hormonerefractory prostate cancer patients

Cell line studies demonstrate that the PI3K/Akt pathway is upregulated in hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC) and can result in phosphorylation of the androgen receptor (AR). The current study therefore aims to establish if this has relevance to the development of clinical HRPC. Immunohistochemistry was employed to investigate the expression and phosphorylation status of Akt and AR in matched hormone-sensitive and -refractory prostate cancer tumours from 68 patients. In the hormone-refractory tissue, only phosphorylated AR (pAR) was associated with shorter time to death from relapse (<i>P</i>=0.003). However, when an increase in expression in the transition from hormone-sensitive to -refractory prostate cancer was investigated, an increase in expression of PI3K was associated with decreased time to biochemical relapse (<i>P</i>=0.014), and an increase in expression of pAkt<sup>473</sup> and pAR<sup>210</sup> were associated with decreased disease-specific survival (<i>P</i>=0.0019 and 0.0015, respectively). Protein expression of pAkt<sup>473</sup> and pAR<sup>210</sup> also strongly correlated (<i>P</i><0.001, c.c.=0.711) in the hormone-refractory prostate tumours. These results provide evidence using clinical specimens, that upregulation of the PI3K/Akt pathway is associated with phosphorylation of the AR during development of HRPC, suggesting that this pathway could be a potential therapeutic target

A large aberrant stem ichthyosauriform indicating early rise and demise of ichthyosauromorphs in the wake of the end-Permian extinction

Contrary to the fast radiation of most metazoans after the end-Permian mass extinction, it is believed that early marine reptiles evolved slowly during the same time interval. However, emerging discoveries of Early Triassic marine reptiles are questioning this traditional view. Here we present an aberrant basal ichthyosauriform with a hitherto unknown body design that suggests a fast radiation of early marine reptiles. The new species is larger than coeval marine reptiles and has an extremely small head and a long tail without a fluke. Its heavily-built body bears flattened and overlapping gastral elements reminiscent of hupehsuchians. A phylogenetic analysis places the new species at the base of ichthyosauriforms, as the sister taxon of Cartorhynchus with which it shares a short snout with rostrally extended nasals. It now appears that ichthyosauriforms evolved rapidly within the first one million years of their evolution, in the Spathian (Early Triassic), and their true diversity has yet to be fully uncovered. Early ichthyosauromorphs quickly became extinct near the Early-Middle Triassic boundary, during the last large environmental perturbation after the end-Permian extinction involving redox fluctuations, sea level changes and volcanism. Marine reptile faunas shifted from ichthyosauromorph-dominated to sauropterygian-dominated composition after the perturbation

Horizontal DNA transfer mechanisms of bacteria as weapons of intragenomic conflict

Horizontal DNA transfer (HDT) is a pervasive mechanism of diversification in many microbial species, but its primary evolutionary role remains controversial. Much recent research has emphasised the adaptive benefit of acquiring novel DNA, but here we argue instead that intragenomic conflict provides a coherent framework for understanding the evolutionary origins of HDT. To test this hypothesis, we developed a mathematical model of a clonally descended bacterial population undergoing HDT through transmission of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and genetic transformation. Including the known bias of transformation toward the acquisition of shorter alleles into the model suggested it could be an effective means of counteracting the spread of MGEs. Both constitutive and transient competence for transformation were found to provide an effective defence against parasitic MGEs; transient competence could also be effective at permitting the selective spread of MGEs conferring a benefit on their host bacterium. The coordination of transient competence with cell-cell killing, observed in multiple species, was found to result in synergistic blocking of MGE transmission through releasing genomic DNA for homologous recombination while simultaneously reducing horizontal MGE spread by lowering the local cell density. To evaluate the feasibility of the functions suggested by the modelling analysis, we analysed genomic data from longitudinal sampling of individuals carrying Streptococcus pneumoniae. This revealed the frequent within-host coexistence of clonally descended cells that differed in their MGE infection status, a necessary condition for the proposed mechanism to operate. Additionally, we found multiple examples of MGEs inhibiting transformation through integrative disruption of genes encoding the competence machinery across many species, providing evidence of an ongoing "arms race." Reduced rates of transformation have also been observed in cells infected by MGEs that reduce the concentration of extracellular DNA through secretion of DNases. Simulations predicted that either mechanism of limiting transformation would benefit individual MGEs, but also that this tactic's effectiveness was limited by competition with other MGEs coinfecting the same cell. A further observed behaviour we hypothesised to reduce elimination by transformation was MGE activation when cells become competent. Our model predicted that this response was effective at counteracting transformation independently of competing MGEs. Therefore, this framework is able to explain both common properties of MGEs, and the seemingly paradoxical bacterial behaviours of transformation and cell-cell killing within clonally related populations, as the consequences of intragenomic conflict between self-replicating chromosomes and parasitic MGEs. The antagonistic nature of the different mechanisms of HDT over short timescales means their contribution to bacterial evolution is likely to be substantially greater than previously appreciated

Impact of Vitamin D Supplementation on Arterial Vasomotion, Stiffness and Endothelial Biomarkers in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

Background: Cardiovascular events are frequent and vascular endothelial function is abnormal in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We demonstrated endothelial dysfunction with vitamin D deficiency in CKD patients; however the impact of cholecalciferol supplementation on vascular stiffness and vasomotor function, endothelial and bone biomarkers in CKD patients with low 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D] is unknown, which this study investigated. Methods: We assessed non-diabetic patients with CKD stage 3/4, age 17–80 years and serum 25(OH)D ,75 nmol/L. Brachial artery Flow Mediated Dilation (FMD), Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV), Augmentation Index (AI) and circulating blood biomarkers were evaluated at baseline and at 16 weeks. Oral 300,000 units cholecalciferol was administered at baseline and 8-weeks. Results: Clinical characteristics of 26 patients were: age 50614 (mean61SD) years, eGFR 41611 ml/min/1.73 m2, males 73%, dyslipidaemia 36%, smokers 23% and hypertensives 87%. At 16-week serum 25(OH)D and calcium increased (43616 to 84629 nmol/L, p,0.001 and 2.3760.09 to 2.4260.09 mmol/L; p = 0.004, respectively) and parathyroid hormone decreased (10.868.6 to 7.464.4; p = 0.001). FMD improved from 3.163.3% to 6.163.7%, p = 0.001. Endothelial biomarker concentrations decreased: E-Selectin from 566662123 to 525662058 pg/mL; p = 0.032, ICAM-1, 3.4560.01 to 3.1061.04 ng/mL; p = 0.038 and VCAM-1, 54633 to 42633 ng/mL; p = 0.006. eGFR, BP, PWV, AI, hsCRP, von Willebrand factor and Fibroblast Growth Factor-23, remained unchanged. Conclusion: This study demonstrates for the first time improvement of endothelial vasomotor and secretory functions with vitamin D in CKD patients without significant adverse effects on arterial stiffness, serum calcium or FGF-23. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0200571

Heterogeneities in leishmania infantum infection : using skin parasite burdens to identify highly infectious dogs

Background: The relationships between heterogeneities in host infection and infectiousness (transmission to arthropod vectors) can provide important insights for disease management. Here, we quantify heterogeneities in Leishmania infantum parasite numbers in reservoir and non-reservoir host populations, and relate this to their infectiousness during natural infection. Tissue parasite number was evaluated as a potential surrogate marker of host transmission potential. Methods: Parasite numbers were measured by qPCR in bone marrow and ear skin biopsies of 82 dogs and 34 crab-eating foxes collected during a longitudinal study in Amazon Brazil, for which previous data was available on infectiousness (by xenodiagnosis) and severity of infection. Results: Parasite numbers were highly aggregated both between samples and between individuals. In dogs, total parasite abundance and relative numbers in ear skin compared to bone marrow increased with the duration and severity of infection. Infectiousness to the sandfly vector was associated with high parasite numbers; parasite number in skin was the best predictor of being infectious. Crab-eating foxes, which typically present asymptomatic infection and are non-infectious, had parasite numbers comparable to those of non-infectious dogs. Conclusions: Skin parasite number provides an indirect marker of infectiousness, and could allow targeted control particularly of highly infectious dogs

AGB Variables and the Mira Period-Luminosity Relation

Published data for large amplitude asymptotic giant branch variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud are re-analysed to establish the constants for an infrared (K) period-luminosity relation of the form: Mk=rho[log P-2.38] + delta. A slope of rho=-3.51+/-0.20 and a zero point of delta=-7.15+/-0.06 are found for oxygen-rich Miras (if a distance modulus of 18.39+/-0.05 is used for the LMC). Assuming this slope is applicable to Galactic Miras we discuss the zero-point for these stars using the revised Hipparcos parallaxes together with published VLBI parallaxes for OH Masers and Miras in Globular Clusters. These result in a mean zero-point of delta=-7.25+/-0.07 for O-rich Galactic Miras. The zero-point for Miras in the Galactic Bulge is not significantly different from this value. Carbon-rich stars are also discussed and provide results that are consistent with the above numbers, but with higher uncertainties. Within the uncertainties there is no evidence for a significant difference between the period-luminosity relation zero-points for systems with different metallicity.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, accepted for MNRA

XIPE: the X-ray Imaging Polarimetry Explorer

X-ray polarimetry, sometimes alone, and sometimes coupled to spectral and temporal variability measurements and to imaging, allows a wealth of physical phenomena in astrophysics to be studied. X-ray polarimetry investigates the acceleration process, for example, including those typical of magnetic reconnection in solar flares, but also emission in the strong magnetic fields of neutron stars and white dwarfs. It detects scattering in asymmetric structures such as accretion disks and columns, and in the so-called molecular torus and ionization cones. In addition, it allows fundamental physics in regimes of gravity and of magnetic field intensity not accessible to experiments on the Earth to be probed. Finally, models that describe fundamental interactions (e.g. quantum gravity and the extension of the Standard Model) can be tested. We describe in this paper the X-ray Imaging Polarimetry Explorer (XIPE), proposed in June 2012 to the first ESA call for a small mission with a launch in 2017 but not selected. XIPE is composed of two out of the three existing JET-X telescopes with two Gas Pixel Detectors (GPD) filled with a He-DME mixture at their focus and two additional GPDs filled with pressurized Ar-DME facing the sun. The Minimum Detectable Polarization is 14 % at 1 mCrab in 10E5 s (2-10 keV) and 0.6 % for an X10 class flare. The Half Energy Width, measured at PANTER X-ray test facility (MPE, Germany) with JET-X optics is 24 arcsec. XIPE takes advantage of a low-earth equatorial orbit with Malindi as down-link station and of a Mission Operation Center (MOC) at INPE (Brazil).Comment: 49 pages, 14 figures, 6 tables. Paper published in Experimental Astronomy http://link.springer.com/journal/1068

Distinguishing Asthma Phenotypes Using Machine Learning Approaches.

Asthma is not a single disease, but an umbrella term for a number of distinct diseases, each of which are caused by a distinct underlying pathophysiological mechanism. These discrete disease entities are often labelled as asthma endotypes. The discovery of different asthma subtypes has moved from subjective approaches in which putative phenotypes are assigned by experts to data-driven ones which incorporate machine learning. This review focuses on the methodological developments of one such machine learning technique-latent class analysis-and how it has contributed to distinguishing asthma and wheezing subtypes in childhood. It also gives a clinical perspective, presenting the findings of studies from the past 5 years that used this approach. The identification of true asthma endotypes may be a crucial step towards understanding their distinct pathophysiological mechanisms, which could ultimately lead to more precise prevention strategies, identification of novel therapeutic targets and the development of effective personalized therapies