Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

Open accessRecently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics

Making Sense of Non-Individuals in Quantum Mechanics

In this work, we focus on a very specific case study: assuming that quantum theories deal with “particles” of some kind (point particles in orthodox non-relativistic quantum mechanics, field excitations in quantum field theories), what kind of entity can such particles be? One possible answer, the one we shall examine here, is that they are not the usual kind of object found in daily life: individuals. Rather, we follow a suggestion by Erwin Schrödinger, according to which quantum mechanics poses a revolutionary kind of entity: non-individuals. While physics, as a scientific field, is not concerned with whether entities posited by a specific physical theory are individuals or not, answering this question is part of the quest for a better understanding of physical reality. Here lies, in large measure, the relevance of ontology

Avoidance, biomass and survival response of soil dwelling (endogeic) earthworms to OECD artificial soil: potential implications for earthworm ecotoxicology

Soil dwelling earthworms are now adopted more widely in ecotoxicology, so it is vital to establish if standardised test parameters remain applicable. The main aim of this study was to determine the influence of OECD artificial soil on selected soil-dwelling, endogeic earthworm species. In an initial experiment, biomass change in mature Allolobophora chlorotica was recorded in Standard OECD Artificial Soil (AS) and also in Kettering Loam (KL). In a second experiment, avoidance behaviour was recorded in a linear gradient with varying proportions of AS and KL (100% AS, 75% AS + 25% KL, 50% KS + 50% KL, 25% AS + 75% KL, 100% KL) with either A. chlorotica or Octolasion cyaneum. Results showed a significant decrease in A. chlorotica biomass in AS relative to KL, and in the linear gradient, both earthworm species preferentially occupied sections containing higher proportions of KL over AS. Soil texture and specifically % composition and particle size of sand are proposed as key factors that influenced observed results. This research suggests that more suitable substrates are required for ecotoxicology tests with soil dwelling earthworms

Hidden and Generalized Conformal Symmetry of Kerr-Sen Spacetimes

It is recently conjectured that generic non-extremal Kerr black hole could be holographically dual to a hidden conformal field theory in two dimensions. Moreover, it is known that there are two CFT duals (pictures) to describe the charged rotating black holes which correspond to angular momentum $J$ and electric charge $Q$ of the black hole. Furthermore these two pictures can be incorporated by the CFT duals (general picture) that are generated by $SL(2,\mathbb{Z})$ modular group. The general conformal structure can be revealed by looking at charged scalar wave equation in some appropriate values of frequency and charge. In this regard, we consider the wave equation of a charged massless scalar field in background of Kerr-Sen black hole and show in the "near region", the wave equation can be reproduced by the Casimir operator of a local $SL(2,\mathbb{R})_L \times SL(2,\mathbb{R})_R$ hidden conformal symmetry. We can find the exact agreement between macroscopic and microscopic physical quantities like entropy and absorption cross section of scalars for Kerr-Sen black hole. We then find an extension of vector fields that in turn yields an extended local family of $SL(2,\mathbb{R})_L \times SL(2,\mathbb{R})_R$ hidden conformal symmetries, parameterized by one parameter. For some special values of the parameter, we find a copy of $SL(2,\mathbb{R})$ hidden conformal algebra for the charged Gibbons-Maeda-Garfinkle-Horowitz-Strominger black hole in the strong deflection limit.Comment: 16 pages, new material and results added, extensive improvements in interpretation of results, references adde

Epstein-Barr virus transcription factor Zta acts through distal regulatory elements to directly control cellular gene expression

Lytic replication of the human gamma herpes virus Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is an essential prerequisite for the spread of the virus. Differential regulation of a limited number of cellular genes has been reported in B-cells during the viral lytic replication cycle. We asked whether a viral bZIP transcription factor, Zta (BZLF1, ZEBRA, EB1), drives some of these changes. Using genome-wide chromatin immunoprecipitation coupled to next-generation DNA sequencing (ChIP-seq) we established a map of Zta interactions across the human genome. Using sensitive transcriptome analyses we identified 2263 cellular genes whose expression is significantly changed during the EBV lytic replication cycle. Zta binds 278 of the regulated genes and the distribution of binding sites shows that Zta binds mostly to sites that are distal to transcription start sites. This differs from the prevailing view that Zta activates viral genes by binding exclusively at promoter elements. We show that a synthetic Zta binding element confers Zta regulation at a distance and that distal Zta binding sites from cellular genes can confer Zta-mediated regulation on a heterologous promoter. This leads us to propose that Zta directly reprograms the expression of cellular genes through distal elements

The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications.

The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedesaegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide

Off-Shell Interactions for Closed-String Tachyons

Off-shell interactions for localized closed-string tachyons in C/Z_N superstring backgrounds are analyzed and a conjecture for the effective height of the tachyon potential is elaborated. At large N, some of the relevant tachyons are nearly massless and their interactions can be deduced from the S-matrix. The cubic interactions between these tachyons and the massless fields are computed in a closed form using orbifold CFT techniques. The cubic interaction between nearly-massless tachyons with different charges is shown to vanish and thus condensation of one tachyon does not source the others. It is shown that to leading order in N, the quartic contact interaction vanishes and the massless exchanges completely account for the four point scattering amplitude. This indicates that it is necessary to go beyond quartic interactions or to include other fields to test the conjecture for the height of the tachyon potential.Comment: 37 pages, 3 figures, LaTeX, JHEP class. Typos corrected, references added, published versio

The holographic principle

There is strong evidence that the area of any surface limits the information content of adjacent spacetime regions, at 10^(69) bits per square meter. We review the developments that have led to the recognition of this entropy bound, placing special emphasis on the quantum properties of black holes. The construction of light-sheets, which associate relevant spacetime regions to any given surface, is discussed in detail. We explain how the bound is tested and demonstrate its validity in a wide range of examples. A universal relation between geometry and information is thus uncovered. It has yet to be explained. The holographic principle asserts that its origin must lie in the number of fundamental degrees of freedom involved in a unified description of spacetime and matter. It must be manifest in an underlying quantum theory of gravity. We survey some successes and challenges in implementing the holographic principle.Comment: 52 pages, 10 figures, invited review for Rev. Mod. Phys; v2: reference adde

Circulating markers of arterial thrombosis and late-stage age-related macular degeneration: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the relation of late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) with markers of systemic atherothrombosis. METHODS: A hospital-based case-control study of AMD was undertaken in London, UK. Cases of AMD (n=81) and controls (n=77) were group matched for age and sex. Standard protocols were used for colour fundus photography and to classify AMD; physical examination included height, weight, history of or treatment for vascular-related diseases and smoking status. Blood samples were taken for measurement of fibrinogen, factor VIIc (FVIIc), factor VIIIc, prothrombin fragment F1.2 (F1.2), tissue plasminogen activator, and von Willebrand factor. Odds ratios from logistic regression analyses of each atherothrombotic marker with AMD were adjusted for age, sex, and established cardiovascular disease risk factors, including smoking, blood pressure, body mass index, and total cholesterol. RESULTS: After adjustment FVIIc and possibly F1.2 were inversely associated with the risk of AMD; per 1 standard deviation increase in these markers the odds ratio were, respectively, 0.62 (95% confidence interval 0.40, 0.95) and 0.71 (0.46, 1.09). None of the other atherothrombotic risk factors appeared to be related to AMD status. There was weak evidence that aspirin is associated with a lower risk of AMD. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not provide strong evidence of associations between AMD and systematic markers of arterial thrombosis, but the potential effects of FVIIc, and F1.2 are worthy of further investigation

Holography at an Extremal De Sitter Horizon

Rotating maximal black holes in four-dimensional de Sitter space, for which the outer event horizon coincides with the cosmological horizon, have an infinite near-horizon region described by the rotating Nariai metric. We show that the asymptotic symmetry group at the spacelike future boundary of the near-horizon region contains a Virasoro algebra with a real, positive central charge. This is evidence that quantum gravity in a rotating Nariai background is dual to a two-dimensional Euclidean conformal field theory. These results are related to the Kerr/CFT correspondence for extremal black holes, but have two key differences: one of the black hole event horizons has been traded for the cosmological horizon, and the near-horizon geometry is a fiber over dS_2 rather than AdS_2.Comment: 15 page