Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model

The severity and timing of seasonal malaria epidemics is strongly linked with temperature and rainfall. Advance warning of meteorological conditions from seasonal climate models can therefore potentially anticipate unusually strong epidemic events, building resilience and adapting to possible changes in the frequency of such events. Here we present validation of a process-based, dynamic malaria model driven by hindcasts from a state-of-the-art seasonal climate model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We validate the climate and malaria models against observed meteorological and incidence data for Botswana over the period 1982–2006; the longest record of observed incidence data which has been used to validate a modeling system of this kind. We consider the impact of climate model biases, the relationship between climate and epidemiological predictability and the potential for skillful malaria forecasts. Forecast skill is demonstrated for upper tercile malaria incidence for the Botswana malaria season (January–May), using forecasts issued at the start of November; the forecast system anticipates six out of the seven upper tercile malaria seasons in the observational period. The length of the validation time series gives confidence in the conclusion that it is possible to make reliable forecasts of seasonal malaria risk, forming a key part of a health early warning system for Botswana and contributing to efforts to adapt to climate change

Hybrid architecture for shallow accumulation mode AlGaAs/GaAs heterostructures with epitaxial gates

Accumulation mode devices with epitaxially grown gates have excellent electrical stability due to the absence of dopant impurities and surface states. We overcome typical fabrication issues associated with epitaxially gated structures (e.g., gate leakage and high contact resistance) by using separate gates to control the electron densities in the Ohmic and Hall bar regions. This hybrid gate architecture opens up a way to make ultrastable nanoscale devices where the separation between the surface gates and the 2D electron gas is small. In this work, we demonstrate that the hybrid devices made from the same wafer have reproducible electrical characteristics, with identical mobility and density traces over a large range of 2D densities. In addition, thermal cycling does not influence the measured electrical characteristics. As a demonstration of concept, we have fabricated a hybrid single-electron transistor on a shallow (50 nm) AlGaAs/GaAs heterostructure that shows clear Coulomb blockade oscillations in the low temperature conductance.This project was supported by the Australian Government under the Australia-India Strategic Research Fund and by the Australian Research Council (ARC) DP scheme. A.R.H. acknowledges an ARC Outstanding Researcher Award. Devices were fabricated using the facilities at the NSW Node of the Australian National Fabrication Facility (ANFF). J.R., A.L., and A.D.W. acknowledge support from Mercur Pr-2013-0001, BMBF-Q.com-H 16KIS0109, and DFH/UFA CDFA-05-06.Copyright (2015) American Institute of Physics. This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the American Institute of Physics. The following article appeared in MacLeod SJ, See AM, Hamilton AR, Farrer I, Ritchie DA, Ritzmann J, Ludwig A, Wieck AD, Applied Physics Letters 106, 012105 (2015) and may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4905210

Prospective mental imagery as its link with anxiety and depression in prisoners

Mental imagery is known to play a key role in the development and maintenance of depression and anxiety. Prisoners commonly experience psychological distress, but interventions to address this are currently lacking. We aimed to examine the link between prospective mental imagery and anxiety and depression among prisoners. One hundred twenty-three male prisoners from a Category C prison in southwest England participated in the study. They completed the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and the General Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7) to measure whether they experience depression and/or anxiety symptoms. Furthermore, they completed additional questionnaires to evaluate their prospective mental imagery. Results showed that 67.5% of prisoners presented with more depression symptoms and 27.7% with more anxiety symptoms. Supporting earlier findings, our data revealed that some dimensions of prospective mental imagery were significantly related with increased anxiety and depression symptoms in prisoners. Namely, intrusive negative personally relevant imagery was a positive predictor and likelihood of positive events a negative predictor of both anxiety and depression symptoms. The perceived likelihood of negative events was a positive predictor of depression. Intrusive verbal thought was a positive predictor of anxiety. The obtained results suggest the need to develop interventions not only targeting the reduction of prospective negative imagery but also the enhancement of positive mental imagery

Facial expressions depicting compassionate and critical emotions: the development and validation of a new emotional face stimulus set

Attachment with altruistic others requires the ability to appropriately process affiliative and kind facial cues. Yet there is no stimulus set available to investigate such processes. Here, we developed a stimulus set depicting compassionate and critical facial expressions, and validated its effectiveness using well-established visual-probe methodology. In Study 1, 62 participants rated photographs of actors displaying compassionate/kind and critical faces on strength of emotion type. This produced a new stimulus set based on N = 31 actors, whose facial expressions were reliably distinguished as compassionate, critical and neutral. In Study 2, 70 participants completed a visual-probe task measuring attentional orientation to critical and compassionate/kind faces. This revealed that participants lower in self-criticism demonstrated enhanced attention to compassionate/kind faces whereas those higher in self-criticism showed no bias. To sum, the new stimulus set produced interpretable findings using visual-probe methodology and is the first to include higher order, complex positive affect displays

Feminist health psychology and abortion : towards a politics of transversal relations of commonality

In 1992 Speckhard and Rue argued in the Journal of Social Issues for the recognition of a diagnostic category, post-abortion syndrome (PAS). This term was first used in 1981 by Vincent Rue in testimony to the American Congress, but was only formalised in a published paper a decade later. Speckhard and Rue (1992) posit that abortion is a psychosocial stressor that may cause mild distress through to severe trauma, creating the need for a continuum of categories, these being post-abortion distress, post-abortion syndrome and post-abortion psychosis. PAS, which is the main focus of their paper, and which has taken root in some professional language as well as lay anti-abortion discourse, is described as a type of post-traumatic stress disorder

The small GTPase Rab29 is a common regulator of immune synapse assembly and ciliogenesis

Acknowledgements We wish to thank Jorge Galán, Gregory Pazour, Derek Toomre, Giuliano Callaini, Joel Rosenbaum, Alessandra Boletta and Francesco Blasi for generously providing reagents and for productive discussions, and Sonia Grassini for technical assistance. The work was carried out with the financial support of Telethon (GGP11021) and AIRC.Peer reviewedPostprin

The systematic guideline review: method, rationale, and test on chronic heart failure

Background: Evidence-based guidelines have the potential to improve healthcare. However, their de-novo-development requires substantial resources-especially for complex conditions, and adaptation may be biased by contextually influenced recommendations in source guidelines. In this paper we describe a new approach to guideline development-the systematic guideline review method (SGR), and its application in the development of an evidence-based guideline for family physicians on chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: A systematic search for guidelines was carried out. Evidence-based guidelines on CHF management in adults in ambulatory care published in English or German between the years 2000 and 2004 were included. Guidelines on acute or right heart failure were excluded. Eligibility was assessed by two reviewers, methodological quality of selected guidelines was appraised using the AGREE instrument, and a framework of relevant clinical questions for diagnostics and treatment was derived. Data were extracted into evidence tables, systematically compared by means of a consistency analysis and synthesized in a preliminary draft. Most relevant primary sources were re-assessed to verify the cited evidence. Evidence and recommendations were summarized in a draft guideline. Results: Of 16 included guidelines five were of good quality. A total of 35 recommendations were systematically compared: 25/35 were consistent, 9/35 inconsistent, and 1/35 un-rateable (derived from a single guideline). Of the 25 consistencies, 14 were based on consensus, seven on evidence and four differed in grading. Major inconsistencies were found in 3/9 of the inconsistent recommendations. We re-evaluated the evidence for 17 recommendations (evidence-based, differing evidence levels and minor inconsistencies) - the majority was congruent. Incongruity was found where the stated evidence could not be verified in the cited primary sources, or where the evaluation in the source guidelines focused on treatment benefits and underestimated the risks. The draft guideline was completed in 8.5 man-months. The main limitation to this study was the lack of a second reviewer. Conclusion: The systematic guideline review including framework development, consistency analysis and validation is an effective, valid, and resource saving-approach to the development of evidence-based guidelines

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

Perspective from a Younger Generation -- The Astro-Spectroscopy of Gisbert Winnewisser

Gisbert Winnewisser's astronomical career was practically coextensive with the whole development of molecular radio astronomy. Here I would like to pick out a few of his many contributions, which I, personally, find particularly interesting and put them in the context of newer results.Comment: 14 pages. (Co)authored by members of the MPIfR (Sub)millimeter Astronomy Group. To appear in the Proceedings of the 4th Cologne-Bonn-Zermatt-Symposium "The Dense Interstellar Medium in Galaxies" eds. S. Pfalzner, C. Kramer, C. Straubmeier, & A. Heithausen (Springer: Berlin

Statistical Mechanics of Glass Formation in Molecular Liquids with OTP as an Example

We extend our statistical mechanical theory of the glass transition from examples consisting of point particles to molecular liquids with internal degrees of freedom. As before, the fundamental assertion is that super-cooled liquids are ergodic, although becoming very viscous at lower temperatures, and are therefore describable in principle by statistical mechanics. The theory is based on analyzing the local neighborhoods of each molecule, and a statistical mechanical weight is assigned to every possible local organization. This results in an approximate theory that is in very good agreement with simulations regarding both thermodynamical and dynamical properties