Promiscuity and the Evolution of Sexual Transmitted Diseases

We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized in couples and interact with each other. The different social behaviors are incorporated assigning what we call a promiscuity value to each individual agent. The individual promiscuity is taken from a distributions and represents the daily probability of going out to look for a sexual partner, abandoning its eventual mate. In terms of this parameter we find a threshold for the epidemic which is much lower than the classical fully mixed model prediction, i.e. $R_0$ (basic reproductive number) $= 1$. Different forms for the distribution of the population promiscuity are considered showing that the threshold is weakly sensitive to them. We study the homosexual and the heterosexual case as well.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations safer against epidemic outbreaks

One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex morphological structure of hosts such as plant roots, crop fields, farms, cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of infection occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent heterogeneity in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in such systems. We have analysed the influence of realistically complex host morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak in an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder expressed in the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of epidemic outbreak and thus makes the system more resistant to epidemic outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe bounds for an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an example of host data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells). Several spatial arrangements of hosts with different degrees of heterogeneity have been considered in order to analyse separately the role of shape complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion threshold are linked to morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be used for determining the threshold for invasion in practical applications.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figure

Epidemics in Networks of Spatially Correlated Three-dimensional Root Branching Structures

Using digitized images of the three-dimensional, branching structures for root systems of bean seedlings, together with analytical and numerical methods that map a common 'SIR' epidemiological model onto the bond percolation problem, we show how the spatially-correlated branching structures of plant roots affect transmission efficiencies, and hence the invasion criterion, for a soil-borne pathogen as it spreads through ensembles of morphologically complex hosts. We conclude that the inherent heterogeneities in transmissibilities arising from correlations in the degrees of overlap between neighbouring plants, render a population of root systems less susceptible to epidemic invasion than a corresponding homogeneous system. Several components of morphological complexity are analysed that contribute to disorder and heterogeneities in transmissibility of infection. Anisotropy in root shape is shown to increase resilience to epidemic invasion, while increasing the degree of branching enhances the spread of epidemics in the population of roots. Some extension of the methods for other epidemiological systems are discussed.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figure

Stochastic Modelling Approach to the Incubation Time of Prionic Diseases

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies like the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans are neurodegenerative diseases for which prions are the attributed pathogenic agents. A widely accepted theory assumes that prion replication is due to a direct interaction between the pathologic (PrPsc) form and the host encoded (PrPc) conformation, in a kind of an autocatalytic process. Here we show that the overall features of the incubation time of prion diseases are readily obtained if the prion reaction is described by a simple mean-field model. An analytical expression for the incubation time distribution then follows by associating the rate constant to a stochastic variable log normally distributed. The incubation time distribution is then also shown to be log normal and fits the observed BSE data very well. The basic ideas of the theoretical model are then incorporated in a cellular automata model. The computer simulation results yield the correct BSE incubation time distribution at low densities of the host encoded protein

Molecular Cloud Evolution VI. Measuring cloud ages

This article has been published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.In previous contributions, we have presented an analytical model describing the evolution and star formation rate (SFR) of molecular clouds (MCs) undergoing hierarchical gravitational contraction. The cloud’s evolution is characterized by an initial increase in its mass, density, SFR, and star formation efficiency (SFE), as it contracts, followed by a decrease of these quantities as newly formed massive stars begin to disrupt the cloud. The main parameter of the model is the maximum mass reached by the cloud during its evolution. Thus, specifying the instantaneous mass and some other variable completely determines the cloud’s evolutionary stage. We apply the model to interpret the observed scatter in SFEs of the cloud sample compiled by Lada et al. as an evolutionary effect so that, although clouds such as California and Orion A have similar masses, they are in very different evolutionary stages, causing their very different observed SFRs and SFEs. The model predicts that the California cloud will eventually reach a significantly larger total mass than the Orion A cloud. Next, we apply the model to derive estimated ages of the clouds since the time when approximately 25 per cent of their mass had become molecular. We find ages from ∼1.5 to 27 Myr, with the most inactive clouds being the youngest. Further predictions of the model are that clouds with very low SFEs should have massive atomic envelopes constituting the majority of their gravitational mass, and that low-mass clouds (M ∼ 103–104M⊙) end their lives with a mini-burst of star formation, reaching SFRs ∼300–500M⊙ Myr−1. By this time, they have contracted to become compact (∼1 pc) massive star-forming clumps, in general embedded within larger giant molecular clouds.Peer reviewe

Evolved stars hint to an external origin of enhanced metallicity in planet-hosting stars

Exo-planets are preferentially found around high metallicity main sequence stars. We aim at investigating whether evolved stars share this property, and what this tells about planet formation. Statistical tools and the basic concepts of stellar evolution theory are applied to published results as well as our own radial velocity and chemical analyses of evolved stars. We show that the metal distributions of planet-hosting (P-H) dwarfs and giants are different, and that the latter do not favor metal-rich systems. Rather, these stars follow the same age-metallicity relation as the giants without planets in our sample. The straightforward explanation is to attribute the difference between dwarfs and giants to the much larger masses of giants' convective envelopes. If the metal excess on the main sequence is due to pollution, the effects of dilution naturally explains why it is not observed among evolved stars. Although we cannot exclude other explanations, the lack of any preference for metal-rich systems among P-H giants could be a strong indication of the accretion of metal-rich material. We discuss further tests, as well as some predictions and consequences of this hypothesis.Comment: A&A, in pres

Beryllium anomalies in solar-type field stars

We present a study of beryllium (Be) abundances in a large sample of field solar-type dwarfs and sub-giants spanning a large range of effective temperatures. The analysis shows that Be is severely depleted for F stars, as expected by the light-element depletion models. However, we also show that Beryllium abundances decrease with decreasing temperature for stars cooler than $\sim$6000 K, a result that cannot be explained by current theoretical models including rotational mixing, but that is, at least in part, expected from the models that take into account internal wave physics. In particular, the light element abundances of the coolest and youngest stars in our sample suggest that Be, as well as lithium (Li), has already been burned early during their evolution. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for the existence of a Be-gap for solar-temperature stars. The analysis of Li and Be abundances in the sub-giants of our sample also shows the presence of one case that has still detectable amounts of Li, while Be is severely depleted. Finally, we compare the derived Be abundances with Li abundances derived using the same set of stellar parameters. This gives us the possibility to explore the temperatures for which the onset of Li and Be depletion occurs.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Twisted and Nontwisted Bifurcations Induced by Diffusion

We discuss a diffusively perturbed predator-prey system. Freedman and Wolkowicz showed that the corresponding ODE can have a periodic solution that bifurcates from a homoclinic loop. When the diffusion coefficients are large, this solution represents a stable, spatially homogeneous time-periodic solution of the PDE. We show that when the diffusion coefficients become small, the spatially homogeneous periodic solution becomes unstable and bifurcates into spatially nonhomogeneous periodic solutions. The nature of the bifurcation is determined by the twistedness of an equilibrium/homoclinic bifurcation that occurs as the diffusion coefficients decrease. In the nontwisted case two spatially nonhomogeneous simple periodic solutions of equal period are generated, while in the twisted case a unique spatially nonhomogeneous double periodic solution is generated through period-doubling. Key Words: Reaction-diffusion equations; predator-prey systems; homoclinic bifurcations; periodic solutions.Comment: 42 pages in a tar.gz file. Use ``latex2e twisted.tex'' on the tex files. Hard copy of figures available on request from [email protected]

The effects of two early parenting interventions on child aggression and risk for violence in Brazil (The PIÁ Trial): protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Children in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are at high risk for exposure to violence and later violent behaviour. The World Health Organization has declared an urgent need for the evaluation and implementation of low-cost parenting interventions in LMICs to prevent violence. Two areas of significant early risk are harsh parenting and poor child cognitive and socio-emotional development. Parenting interventions suitable for LMIC contexts have been developed targeting these risk factors and have been shown to have promising effects. However, their impact on child aggression, a key precursor of violence, has yet to be determined. The Pelotas Trial of Parenting Interventions for Aggression (PIÁ) has been designed to address this issue. Methods We are conducting a randomised controlled trial to evaluate two early parenting interventions for mothers of children aged between 30 and 42 months in a Brazilian city. The first of these, dialogic book-sharing (DBS), aims to promote child cognitive and socio-emotional development; and the second, the ACT Raising Safe Kids Program (ACT), is designed to reduce harsh parenting. These interventions are being compared with a control group receiving neither intervention. Three hundred and sixty-nine families in a birth cohort are being randomly allocated to one of the three groups (DBS, ACT, Control). Facilitators deliver the interventions to groups of five to 10 mothers at weekly sessions for 8 weeks in DBS and 9 weeks in ACT. Independent assessments of parenting and child development are being made before the interventions, shortly afterwards, and at follow-up 6 months later. The primary outcome is child aggression, and the two main secondary outcomes are: (1) child cognitive and socio-emotional development and (2) harsh parenting. Longer-term outcomes will be investigated as the birth cohort is followed into late childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. Discussion The Pelotas Trial of Parenting Interventions for Aggression (PIÁ) aims to evaluate the impact of two early parenting interventions on child aggression and several other key risk factors for the development of violence, including aspects of parenting and child cognition and socio-emotional functioning. The study is being carried out in a LMIC context where violence constitutes a major social and health burden. Since the two interventions are brief and, with modest levels of training, readily deliverable in LMIC settings, a demonstration that they benefit parenting and reduce risk factors for violence would be of major significance

Multiphase Gas In Galaxy Halos: The OVI Lyman-limit System toward J1009+0713

We have serendipitously detected a strong O VI-bearing Lyman limit system at z_abs = 0.3558 toward the QSO J1009+0713 (z_em = 0.456) in our survey of low-redshift galaxy halos with the Hubble Space Telescope's Cosmic Origins Spectrograph. Its rest-frame equivalent width of W_r = 835 +/- 49 mA is the highest for an intervening absorber yet detected in any low-redshift QSO sightline, with absorption spanning 400 km s^-1 in its rest frame. HST/WFC3 images of the galaxy field show that the absorber is associated with two galaxies lying at 14 and 46 kpc from the QSO line of sight. The bulk of the absorbing gas traced by H I resides in two strong, blended component groups that possess a total logN(HI) = 18 - 18.8. The ion ratios and column densities of C, N, O, Mg, Si, S, and Fe, except the O VI, can be accommodated into a simple photoionization model in which diffuse, low-metallicity halo gas is exposed to a photoionizing field from stars in the nearby galaxies that propagates into the halo at 10% efficiency. We constrain the metallicity firmly within the range 0.1 - 1 Zsun, and photoionization modeling indirectly indicates a subsolar metallicity of 0.05 - 0.5 Zsun. The appearance of strong O VI and nine Mg II components and our review of similar systems in the literature support the "interface" picture of high-velocity O VI: the total strength of the O VI shows a positive correlation with the number of detected components in the low-ionization gas, however the total O VI column densities still far exceed the values expected from interface models for the number of detected clouds.Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Ap