The Dynamics of Democracy, Development and Cultural Values

Over the past decades many countries have experienced rapid changes in their economies, their democratic institutions and the values of their citizens. Comprehensive data measuring these changes across very different countries has recently become openly available. Between country similarities suggest common underlying dynamics in how countries develop in terms of economy, democracy and cultural values. We apply a novel Bayesian dynamical systems approach to identify the model which best captures the complex, mainly non-linear dynamics that underlie these changes. We show that the level of Human Development Index (HDI) in a country drives first democracy and then higher emancipation of citizens. This change occurs once the countries pass a certain threshold in HDI. The data also suggests that there is a limit to the growth of wealth, set by higher emancipation. Having reached a high level of democracy and emancipation, societies tend towards equilibrium that does not support further economic growth. Our findings give strong empirical evidence against a popular political science theory, known as the Human Development Sequence. Contrary to this theory, we find that implementation of human-rights and democratisation precede increases in emancipative values

The Cultural Evolution of Democracy: Saltational Changes in A Political Regime Landscape

Transitions to democracy are most often considered the outcome of historical modernization processes. Socio-economic changes, such as increases in per capita GNP, education levels, urbanization and communication, have traditionally been found to be correlates or ‘requisites’ of democratic reform. However, transition times and the number of reform steps have not been studied comprehensively. Here we show that historically, transitions to democracy have mainly occurred through rapid leaps rather than slow and incremental transition steps, with a median time from autocracy to democracy of 2.4 years, and overnight in the reverse direction. Our results show that autocracy and democracy have acted as peaks in an evolutionary landscape of possible modes of institutional arrangements. Only scarcely have there been slow incremental transitions. We discuss our results in relation to the application of phylogenetic comparative methods in cultural evolution and point out that the evolving unit in this system is the institutional arrangement, not the individual country which is instead better regarded as the ‘host’ for the political system

Preventing the diversion of Turkish opium

Turkey was once one of the world’s largest sources of illicit opium; the majority diverted from sparsely regulated licit production. Since 1972, however, it has contributed almost no opium to the global black market. As such, Turkey is one of a small number of states to have eradicated, or severally reduced, the national supply of illicit opium. This article reconsiders post-1974 Turkish controls from a situational crime prevention perspective. It is suggested that Turkish success was founded upon reducing opportunities for diversion from regulated production by hardening targets, increasing formal and informal surveillance, assisting compliance through fair procurement practices and increasing the risk of non-compliance

Emancipative Values in a Post-Communist Society: The Case of Serbia

The aim of this paper is to analyse the changes in emancipative values in Serbia in the period from 1996 to 2006 and to identify their main predictors and correlates. Emancipative values are described as an essence of the universal human quest for freedom and a life free from domination. They comprise an emphasis on autonomy, choice, equality and voice. The data were collected during three waves of the World Values Survey conducted in Serbia in 1996 (N = 1280), 2001 (N = 1200) and 2006 (N = 1220). The results showed a significant increase in the acceptance of emancipative values in Serbia during a relatively short time span. Younger, more educated and well-off citizens were especially prone to emancipative values. Emancipative values were significantly correlated with measures of social tolerance, political activism and support for democracy. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical underpinnings of the observed value change and its socio-political implications for democratizing society as well as in the light of the proposed models of emancipative value growth

Two modes of democratisation: transition and state-formation

Previous studies about democracies on a global level have assumed that democratisation occurs when an autocratic regime moves toward becoming a democratic regime. This article recognises an alternative mode to democratic transition: democratisation by state-formation, which occurs when democratic regimes are established in new states as an outcome of state-formation. The article describes how cases of democratisation can be classified according the two modes of democratisation. Furthermore, the classification is applied in illustrative analyses of democratisation on the global level during 1800-2007. The analyses describe how transition and state-formation have affected the global number of democracies. These analyses indicate that both modes of democratisation have empirical relevance and that the classification provides a more complete description of the global development of democracies than previous studies. The main conclusion of this article is therefore a proposal for future studies to include both modes to understand and explain democratisation on the global level.</p