487 research outputs found

    A Methodological Framework for the Evaluation of Syndromic Surveillance Systems: A Case Study of England

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    Background: Syndromic surveillance complements traditional public health surveillance by collecting and analysing health indicators in near real time. The rationale of syndromic surveillance is that it may detect health threats faster than traditional surveillance systems permitting more timely, and hence potentially more effective public health action. The effectiveness of syndromic surveillance largely relies on the methods used to detect aberrations. Very few studies have evaluated the performance of syndromic surveillance systems and consequently little is known about the types of events that such systems can and cannot detect. Methods: We introduce a framework for the evaluation of syndromic surveillance systems that can be used in any setting based upon the use of simulated scenarios. For a range of scenarios this allows the time and probability of to be determined and uncertainty is fully incorporated. In addition, we demonstrate how such a framework can model the benefits of increases in the number of centres reporting syndromic data and also determine the minimum size of outbreaks that can or cannot be detected. Here, we demonstrate its utility using simulations of national influenza outbreaks and localised outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis. Results: Influenza outbreaks are consistently detected with larger outbreaks being detected in a more timely manner. Small cryptosporidiosis outbreaks (<1000 symptomatic individuals) are unlikely to be detected. We also demonstrate the advantages of having multiple syndromic data streams (e.g. emergency attendance data, telephone helpline data, general practice consultation data) as different streams are able to detect different types outbreaks with different efficacy (e.g. emergency attendance data are useful for the detection of pandemic influenza but not for outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis). We also highlight that for any one disease, the utility of data streams may vary geographically, and that the detection ability of syndromic surveillance varies seasonally (e.g. an influenza outbreak starting in July is detected sooner than one starting later in the year). We argue that our framework constitutes a useful tool for public health emergency preparedness in multiple settings. Conclusions: The proposed framework allows the exhaustive evaluation of any syndromic surveillance system and constitutes a useful tool for emergency preparedness and response

    Applying refinement to the use of mice and rats in rheumatoid arthritis research

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    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a painful, chronic disorder and there is currently an unmet need for effective therapies that will benefit a wide range of patients. The research and development process for therapies and treatments currently involves in vivo studies, which have the potential to cause discomfort, pain or distress. This Working Group report focuses on identifying causes of suffering within commonly used mouse and rat ‘models’ of RA, describing practical refinements to help reduce suffering and improve welfare without compromising the scientific objectives. The report also discusses other, relevant topics including identifying and minimising sources of variation within in vivo RA studies, the potential to provide pain relief including analgesia, welfare assessment, humane endpoints, reporting standards and the potential to replace animals in RA research

    Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

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    Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

    The Prevalence and Psychopathological Correlates of Sibling Bullying in Children with and without Autism Spectrum Disorder

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    Using data from a prospective population based study, the prevalence and psychopathological correlates of sibling bullying in children with and without autism spectrum disorder (ASD) were estimated. There were 475 children with ASD and 13,702 children without ASD aged 11 years. Children with ASD were more likely to be bullied by their siblings compared to those without ASD. They were also more likely than those without ASD to both bully and be bullied by their siblings, which was associated with lower prosocial skills as well as more internalizing and externalizing problems compared to those not involved in any sibling bullying. Interventions to improve social and emotional outcomes in children with ASD should focus on both the affected and the unaffected sibling

    Dynamical Mean-Field Theory

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    The dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) is a widely applicable approximation scheme for the investigation of correlated quantum many-particle systems on a lattice, e.g., electrons in solids and cold atoms in optical lattices. In particular, the combination of the DMFT with conventional methods for the calculation of electronic band structures has led to a powerful numerical approach which allows one to explore the properties of correlated materials. In this introductory article we discuss the foundations of the DMFT, derive the underlying self-consistency equations, and present several applications which have provided important insights into the properties of correlated matter.Comment: Chapter in "Theoretical Methods for Strongly Correlated Systems", edited by A. Avella and F. Mancini, Springer (2011), 31 pages, 5 figure

    Macrofossil evidence for a rapid and severe Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction in Antarctica

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    Debate continues about the nature of the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) mass extinction event. An abrupt crisis triggered by a bolide impact contrasts with ideas of a more gradual extinction involving flood volcanism or climatic changes. Evidence from high latitudes has also been used to suggest that the severity of the extinction decreased from low latitudes towards the poles. Here we present a record of the K–Pg extinction based on extensive assemblages of marine macrofossils (primarily new data from benthic molluscs) from a highly expanded Cretaceous–Paleogene succession: the López de Bertodano Formation of Seymour Island, Antarctica. We show that the extinction was rapid and severe in Antarctica, with no significant biotic decline during the latest Cretaceous, contrary to previous studies. These data are consistent with a catastrophic driver for the extinction, such as bolide impact, rather than a significant contribution from Deccan Traps volcanism during the late Maastrichtian

    Appraising the intention of other people: Ecological validity and procedures for investigating effects of lighting for pedestrians

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    One of the aims of outdoor lighting public spaces such as pathways and subsidiary roads is to help pedestrians to evaluate the intentions of other people. This paper discusses how a pedestrians’ appraisal of another persons’ intentions in artificially lit outdoor environments can be studied. We review the visual cues that might be used, and the experimental design with which effects of changes in lighting could be investigated to best resemble the pedestrian experience in artificially lit urban environments. Proposals are made to establish appropriate operationalisation of the identified visual cues, choice of methods and measurements representing critical situations. It is concluded that the intentions of other people should be evaluated using facial emotion recognition; eye tracking data suggest a tendency to make these observations at an interpersonal distance of 15 m and for a duration of 500 ms. Photographs are considered suitable for evaluating the effect of changes in light level and spectral power distribution. To support investigation of changes in spatial distribution further investigation is needed with 3D targets. Further data are also required to examine the influence of glare
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