A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Open Access ArticleReliable estimates of future changes in extreme weather phenomena, such as tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds, are critical for climate change impact assessments and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. However, global and regional climate model outputs are often too coarse for direct use in these applications, with variables such as wind speed having truncated probability distributions compared to those of observations. This poses two problems: How canmodel-simulated variables best be adjusted to make themmore realistic? And how can such adjustments be used to make more reliable predictions of future changes in their distribution? This study investigates North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds from observations (1950- 2010) and regional climate model simulations (1995-2005 and 2045-55 at 12- and 36-km spatial resolutions). The wind speed distributions in these datasets are well represented by the Weibull distribution, albeit with different scale and shape parameters. A power-law transfer function is used to recalibrate the Weibull variables and obtain future projections of wind speeds. Two different strategies, bias correction and change factor, are tested by using 36-km model data to predict future 12-km model data (pseudo-observations). The strategies are also applied to the observations to obtain likely predictions of the future distributions of wind speeds. The strategies yield similar predictions of likely changes in the fraction of events within Saffir-Simpson categories-for example, an increase from 21% (1995-2005) to 27%-37% (2045-55) for category 3 or above events and an increase from 1.6% (1995- 2005) to 2.8%-9.8% (2045-55) for category 5 events. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by theWillis Research Network, the Research Program to Secure Energy for America, NSF EASM Grant S1048841, and the NCARWeather and Climate Assessment Science Program. We thank Sherrie Fredrick for extracting data, and Cindy Bruyère, James Done, and Ben Youngman for productive discussions that enhanced this research. We also thank Dr. Adam Monahan and one anonymous reviewer for their insightful comments and suggestions

Collective Quartics from Simple Groups

This article classifies Little Higgs models that have collective quartic couplings. There are two classes of collective quartics: Special Cosets and Special Quartics. After taking into account dangerous singlets, the smallest Special Coset models are SU(5)/SO(5) and SU(6)/Sp(6). The smallest Special Quartic model is SU(5)/SU(3) x SU(2) x U(1) and has not previously been considered as a candidate Little Higgs model.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figure

Flavor in Minimal Conformal Technicolor

We construct a complete, realistic, and natural UV completion of minimal conformal technicolor that explains the origin of quark and lepton masses and mixing angles. As in "bosonic technicolor", we embed conformal technicolor in a supersymmetric theory, with supersymmetry broken at a high scale. The exchange of heavy scalar doublets generates higher-dimension interactions between technifermions and quarks and leptons that give rise to quark and lepton masses at the TeV scale. Obtaining a sufficiently large top quark mass requires strong dynamics at the supersymmetry breaking scale in both the top and technicolor sectors. This is natural if the theory above the supersymmetry breaking also has strong conformal dynamics. We present two models in which the strong top dynamics is realized in different ways. In both models, constraints from flavor-changing effects can be easily satisfied. The effective theory below the supersymmetry breaking scale is minimal conformal technicolor with an additional light technicolor gaugino. We argue that this light gaugino is a general consequence of conformal technicolor embedded into a supersymmetric theory. If the gaugino has mass below the TeV scale it will give rise to an additional pseudo Nambu-Goldstone boson that is observable at the LHC.Comment: 37 pages; references adde

Lattice QCD at the physical point: Simulation and analysis details

We give details of our precise determination of the light quark masses m_{ud}=(m_u+m_d)/2 and m_s in 2+1 flavor QCD, with simulated pion masses down to 120 MeV, at five lattice spacings, and in large volumes. The details concern the action and algorithm employed, the HMC force with HEX smeared clover fermions, the choice of the scale setting procedure and of the input masses. After an overview of the simulation parameters, extensive checks of algorithmic stability, autocorrelation and (practical) ergodicity are reported. To corroborate the good scaling properties of our action, explicit tests of the scaling of hadron masses in N_f=3 QCD are carried out. Details of how we control finite volume effects through dedicated finite volume scaling runs are reported. To check consistency with SU(2) Chiral Perturbation Theory the behavior of M_\pi^2/m_{ud} and F_\pi as a function of m_{ud} is investigated. Details of how we use the RI/MOM procedure with a separate continuum limit of the running of the scalar density R_S(\mu,\mu') are given. This procedure is shown to reproduce the known value of r_0m_s in quenched QCD. Input from dispersion theory is used to split our value of m_{ud} into separate values of m_u and m_d. Finally, our procedure to quantify both systematic and statistical uncertainties is discussed.Comment: 45 page

Multi-parallel qPCR provides increased sensitivity and diagnostic breadth for gastrointestinal parasites of humans: field-based inferences on the impact of mass deworming

BACKGROUND: Although chronic morbidity in humans from soil transmitted helminth (STH) infections can be reduced by anthelmintic treatment, inconsistent diagnostic tools make it difficult to reliably measure the impact of deworming programs and often miss light helminth infections. METHODS: Cryopreserved stool samples from 796 people (aged 2-81 years) in four villages in Bungoma County, western Kenya, were assessed using multi-parallel qPCR for 8 parasites and compared to point-of-contact assessments of the same stools by the 2-stool 2-slide Kato-Katz (KK) method. All subjects were treated with albendazole and all Ascaris lumbricoides expelled post-treatment were collected. Three months later, samples from 633 of these people were re-assessed by both qPCR and KK, re-treated with albendazole and the expelled worms collected. RESULTS: Baseline prevalence by qPCR (n = 796) was 17 % for A. lumbricoides, 18 % for Necator americanus, 41 % for Giardia lamblia and 15% for Entamoeba histolytica. The prevalence was <1% for Trichuris trichiura, Ancylostoma duodenale, Strongyloides stercoralis and Cryptosporidium parvum. The sensitivity of qPCR was 98% for A. lumbricoides and N. americanus, whereas KK sensitivity was 70% and 32%, respectively. Furthermore, qPCR detected infections with T. trichiura and S. stercoralis that were missed by KK, and infections with G. lamblia and E. histolytica that cannot be detected by KK. Infection intensities measured by qPCR and by KK were correlated for A. lumbricoides (r = 0.83, p < 0.0001) and N. americanus (r = 0.55, p < 0.0001). The number of A. lumbricoides worms expelled was correlated (p < 0.0001) with both the KK (r = 0.63) and qPCR intensity measurements (r = 0.60). CONCLUSIONS: KK may be an inadequate tool for stool-based surveillance in areas where hookworm or Strongyloides are common or where intensity of helminth infection is low after repeated rounds of chemotherapy. Because deworming programs need to distinguish between populations where parasitic infection is controlled and those where further treatment is required, multi-parallel qPCR (or similar high throughput molecular diagnostics) may provide new and important diagnostic information

UV friendly T-parity in the SU(6)/Sp(6) little Higgs model

Electroweak precision tests put stringent constraints on the parameter space of little Higgs models. Tree-level exchange of TeV scale particles in a generic little Higgs model produce higher dimensional operators that make contributions to electroweak observables that are typically too large. To avoid this problem a discrete symmetry dubbed T-parity can be introduced to forbid the dangerous couplings. However, it was realized that in simple group models such as the littlest Higgs model, the implementation of T-parity in a UV completion could present some challenges. The situation is analogous to the one in QCD where the pion can easily be defined as being odd under a new $Z_2$ symmetry in the chiral Lagrangian, but this $Z_2$ is not a symmetry of the quark Lagrangian. In this paper we examine the possibility of implementing a T-parity in the low energy $SU(6)/Sp(6)$ model that might be easier to realize in the UV. In our model, the T-parity acts on the low energy non-linear sigma model field in way which is different to what was originally proposed for the Littlest Higgs, and lead to a different low energy theory. In particular, the Higgs sector of this model is a inert two Higgs doublets model with an approximate custodial symmetry. We examine the contributions of the various sectors of the model to electroweak precision data, and to the dark matter abundance.Comment: 21 pages,4 figures. Clarifications added, typos corrected and references added. Published in JHE

Endogenous cholinergic inputs and local circuit mechanisms govern the phasic mesolimbic dopamine response to nicotine

Nicotine exerts its reinforcing action by stimulating nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) and boosting dopamine (DA) output from the ventral tegmental area (VTA). Recent data have led to a debate about the principal pathway of nicotine action: direct stimulation of the DAergic cells through nAChR activation, or disinhibition mediated through desensitization of nAChRs on GABAergic interneurons. We use a computational model of the VTA circuitry and nAChR function to shed light on this issue. Our model illustrates that the α4β2-containing nAChRs either on DA or GABA cells can mediate the acute effects of nicotine. We account for in vitro as well as in vivo data, and predict the conditions necessary for either direct stimulation or disinhibition to be at the origin of DA activity increases. We propose key experiments to disentangle the contribution of both mechanisms. We show that the rate of endogenous acetylcholine input crucially determines the evoked DA response for both mechanisms. Together our results delineate the mechanisms by which the VTA mediates the acute rewarding properties of nicotine and suggest an acetylcholine dependence hypothesis for nicotine reinforcement.Peer reviewe

Minimal Conformal Technicolor and Precision Electroweak Tests

We study the minimal model of conformal technicolor, an SU(2) gauge theory near a strongly coupled conformal fixed point, with conformal symmetry softly broken by technifermion mass terms. Conformal symmetry breaking triggers chiral symmetry breaking in the pattern SU(4) -> Sp(4), which gives rise to a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson that can act as a composite Higgs boson. The top quark is elementary, and the top and electroweak gauge loop contributions to the Higgs mass are cut off entirely by Higgs compositeness. In particular, the model requires no top partners and no "little Higgs" mechanism. A nontrivial vacuum alignment results from the interplay of the top loop and technifermion mass terms. The composite Higgs mass is completely determined by the top loop, in the sense that m_h/m_t is independent of the vacuum alignment and is computable by a strong-coupling calculation. There is an additional composite pseudoscalar A with mass larger than m_h and suppressed direct production at LHC. We discuss the electroweak fit in this model in detail. Corrections to Z -> bb and the T parameter from the top sector are suppressed by the enhanced Sp(4) custodial symmetry. Even assuming that the strong contribution to the S parameter is positive and usuppressed, a good electroweak fit can be obtained for v/f ~ 0.25, where v and f are the electroweak and chiral symmetry breaking scales respectively. This requires fine tuning at the 10% level.Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures; v2: updated precision electroweak fi

An empirical investigation of the influence of collaboration in Finance on article impact

We investigate the impact of collaborative research in academic Finance literature to find out whether and to what extent collaboration leads to higher impact articles (6,667 articles across 2001-2007 extracted from the Web of Science). Using the top 5 % as ranked by the 4-year citation counts following publication, we also follow related secondary research questions such as the relationships between article impact and author impact; collaboration and average author impact of an article; and, the nature of geographic collaboration. Key findings indicate: collaboration does lead to articles of higher impact but there is no significant marginal value for collaboration beyond three authors; high impact articles are not monopolized by high impact authors; collaboration and the average author impact of high-impact articles are positively associated, where collaborative articles have a higher mean author impact in comparison to single-author articles; and collaboration among the authors of high impact articles is mostly cross-institutional

Bioethical and medico-legal implications of withdrawing artificial nutrition and hydration from adults in critical care

The withdrawal of artificial nutrition and hydration or other life-sustaining treatments is a clinical decision, made in ICUs or in other settings, involving patients suffering from serious and irreversible diseases or impaired consciousness. Such clinical decisions must be made in the best interests of the patient, and must respect the wishes previously expressed by patients, laid down in their wills, in advance directives or in information passed on by relatives or legally appointed health-care agents, and in observance of common bioethical and legal rules in individual nations. Intensivists who are expert in the management of lifesustaining treatments are also involved in deciding when to withdraw futile therapies and instigate end-of-life care procedures for dying patients, with the sole aim of providing comfort and ensuring that suffering is not prolonged unnecessaril