On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

This is the final version of the article. Available from the Royal Society via the DOI in this record.Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Consortium on Risk in the Environment: Diagnostics, Integration, Benchmarking, Learning and Elicitation (CREDIBLE); grant no. NE/J017043/1)

Non-parametric clustering over user features and latent behavioral functions with dual-view mixture models

International audienceWe present a dual-view mixture model to cluster users based on their features and latent behavioral functions. Every component of the mixture model represents a probability density over a feature view for observed user attributes and a behavior view for latent behavioral functions that are indirectly observed through user actions or behaviors. Our task is to infer the groups of users as well as their latent behavioral functions. We also propose a non-parametric version based on a Dirichlet Process to automatically infer the number of clusters. We test the properties and performance of the model on a synthetic dataset that represents the participation of users in the threads of an online forum. Experiments show that dual-view models outperform single-view ones when one of the views lacks information

Effects of external nutrient sources and extreme weather events on the nutrient budget of a Southern European coastal lagoon

The seasonal and annual nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and carbon (C) budgets of the mesotidal Ria Formosa lagoon, southern Portugal, were estimated to reveal the main inputs and outputs, the seasonal patterns, and how they may influence the ecological functioning of the system. The effects of extreme weather events such as long-lasting strong winds causing upwelling and strong rainfall were assessed. External nutrient inputs were quantified; ocean exchange was assessed in 24-h sampling campaigns, and final calculations were made using a hydrodynamic model of the lagoon. Rain and stream inputs were the main freshwater sources to the lagoon. However, wastewater treatment plant and groundwater discharges dominated nutrient input, together accounting for 98, 96, and 88 % of total C, N, and P input, respectively. Organic matter and nutrients were continuously exported to the ocean. This pattern was reversed following extreme events, such as strong winds in early summer that caused upwelling and after a period of heavy rainfall in late autumn. A principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that ammonium and organic N and C exchange were positively associated with temperature as opposed to pH and nitrate. These variables reflected mostly the benthic lagoon metabolism, whereas particulate P exchange was correlated to Chl a, indicating that this was more related to phytoplankton dynamics. The increase of stochastic events, as expected in climate change scenarios, may have strong effects on the ecological functioning of coastal lagoons, altering the C and nutrient budgets.Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) [POCI/MAR/58427/2004, PPCDT/MAR/58427/2004]; Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT

A search for the decay modes B+/- to h+/- tau l

We present a search for the lepton flavor violating decay modes B+/- to h+/- tau l (h= K,pi; l= e,mu) using the BaBar data sample, which corresponds to 472 million BBbar pairs. The search uses events where one B meson is fully reconstructed in one of several hadronic final states. Using the momenta of the reconstructed B, h, and l candidates, we are able to fully determine the tau four-momentum. The resulting tau candidate mass is our main discriminant against combinatorial background. We see no evidence for B+/- to h+/- tau l decays and set a 90% confidence level upper limit on each branching fraction at the level of a few times 10^-5.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Evidence for an excess of B -> D(*) Tau Nu decays

Based on the full BaBar data sample, we report improved measurements of the ratios R(D(*)) = B(B -> D(*) Tau Nu)/B(B -> D(*) l Nu), where l is either e or mu. These ratios are sensitive to new physics contributions in the form of a charged Higgs boson. We measure R(D) = 0.440 +- 0.058 +- 0.042 and R(D*) = 0.332 +- 0.024 +- 0.018, which exceed the Standard Model expectations by 2.0 sigma and 2.7 sigma, respectively. Taken together, our results disagree with these expectations at the 3.4 sigma level. This excess cannot be explained by a charged Higgs boson in the type II two-Higgs-doublet model. We also report the observation of the decay B -> D Tau Nu, with a significance of 6.8 sigma.Comment: Expanded section on systematics, text corrections, improved the format of Figure 2 and included the effect of the change of the Tau polarization due to the charged Higg

Study of the reaction e^{+}e^{-} -->J/psi\pi^{+}\pi^{-} via initial-state radiation at BaBar

We study the process $e^+e^-\to J/\psi\pi^{+}\pi^{-}$ with initial-state-radiation events produced at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy collider. The data were recorded with the BaBar detector at center-of-mass energies 10.58 and 10.54 GeV, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 454 $\mathrm{fb^{-1}}$. We investigate the $J/\psi \pi^{+}\pi^{-}$ mass distribution in the region from 3.5 to 5.5 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$. Below 3.7 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$ the $\psi(2S)$ signal dominates, and above 4 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$ there is a significant peak due to the Y(4260). A fit to the data in the range 3.74 -- 5.50 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$ yields a mass value $4244 \pm 5$ (stat) $\pm 4$ (syst)$\mathrm{MeV/c^{2}}$ and a width value $114 ^{+16}_{-15}$ (stat)$\pm 7$(syst)$\mathrm{MeV}$ for this state. We do not confirm the report from the Belle collaboration of a broad structure at 4.01 $\mathrm{GeV/c^{2}}$. In addition, we investigate the $\pi^{+}\pi^{-}$ system which results from Y(4260) decay

Measurement of CP-violation asymmetries in D0 to Ks pi+ pi-

We report a measurement of time-integrated CP-violation asymmetries in the resonant substructure of the three-body decay D0 to Ks pi+ pi- using CDF II data corresponding to 6.0 invfb of integrated luminosity from Tevatron ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV. The charm mesons used in this analysis come from D*+(2010) to D0 pi+ and D*-(2010) to D0bar pi-, where the production flavor of the charm meson is determined by the charge of the accompanying pion. We apply a Dalitz-amplitude analysis for the description of the dynamic decay structure and use two complementary approaches, namely a full Dalitz-plot fit employing the isobar model for the contributing resonances and a model-independent bin-by-bin comparison of the D0 and D0bar Dalitz plots. We find no CP-violation effects and measure an asymmetry of ACP = (-0.05 +- 0.57 (stat) +- 0.54 (syst))% for the overall integrated CP-violation asymmetry, consistent with the standard model prediction.Comment: 15 page

Search for the decay modes D^0 → e^+e^-, D^0 → μ^+μ^-, and D^0 → e^±μ∓

We present searches for the rare decay modes D^0→e^+e^-, D^0→μ^+μ^-, and D^0→e^±μ^∓ in continuum e^+e^-→cc events recorded by the BABAR detector in a data sample that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 468  fb^(-1). These decays are highly Glashow–Iliopoulos–Maiani suppressed but may be enhanced in several extensions of the standard model. Our observed event yields are consistent with the expected backgrounds. An excess is seen in the D^0→μ^+μ^- channel, although the observed yield is consistent with an upward background fluctuation at the 5% level. Using the Feldman–Cousins method, we set the following 90% confidence level intervals on the branching fractions: B(D^0→e^+e^-)<1.7×10^(-7), B(D^0→μ^+μ^-) within [0.6,8.1]×10^(-7), and B(D^0→e^±μ^∓)<3.3×10^(-7)

Search for rare quark-annihilation decays, B --> Ds(*) Phi

We report on searches for B- --> Ds- Phi and B- --> Ds*- Phi. In the context of the Standard Model, these decays are expected to be highly suppressed since they proceed through annihilation of the b and u-bar quarks in the B- meson. Our results are based on 234 million Upsilon(4S) --> B Bbar decays collected with the BABAR detector at SLAC. We find no evidence for these decays, and we set Bayesian 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions BF(B- --> Ds- Phi) Ds*- Phi)<1.2x10^(-5). These results are consistent with Standard Model expectations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Sediment geochemistry of streams draining abandoned lead / zinc mines in central Wales: the Afon Twymyn

Purpose Despite the decline of metal mining in the UK during the early 20th century, a substantial legacy of heavy metal contamination persists in river channel and floodplain sediments. Poor sediment quality is likely to impede the achievement of ’good’ chemical and ecological status for surface waters under the European Union Water Framework Directive. This paper examines the environmental legacy of the Dylife lead/zinc mine in the central Wales mining district. Leachable heavy metal concentrations in the bed sediments of the Afon Twymyn are established and the geochemical partitioning, potential mobility and bioavailability of sediment-associated heavy metals are established. Materials and methods Sediment samples were collected from the river bed and dry-sieved into two size fractions (<63 μm and 64–2,000 μm). The fractionated samples were then subjected to a sequential extraction procedure to isolate heavy metals (Pb, Zn, Cu, Cd, Fe, Mn) in three different geochemical phases. Sediment samples were then analysed for heavy metals using ICP-AES. Results and discussion The bed sediment of the Afon Twymyn is grossly polluted with heavy metals. Within the vicinity of the former mine, Pb concentrations are up to 100 times greater than levels reported to have deleterious impacts on aquatic ecology. Most heavy metals exist in the most mobile easily exchangeable and carbonate-bound geochemical phases, potentially posing serious threats to ecological integrity and constituting a significant, secondary, diffuse source of pollution. Metal concentrations decrease sharply downstream of the former mine, although there is a gradual increase in the proportion of readily extractable Zn and Cd. Conclusions Implementation of sediment quality guidelines is important in order to achieve the aims of the Water Framework Directive. Assessments of sediment quality should include measurements of background metal concentrations, river water physico-chemistry and, most importantly, metal mobility and potential bioavailability. Uniformity of sediment guidelines throughout Europe and flexibility of targets with regard to the most heavily contaminated mine sites are recommended