Different atmospheric moisture divergence responses to extreme and moderate El Niños

On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, vertically integrated moisture divergence provides a useful measure of the tropical atmospheric hydrological cycle. It reflects the combined dynamical and thermodynamical effects, and is not subject to the limitations that afflict observations of evaporation minus precipitation. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the tropical Pacific moisture divergence fields calculated from the ERA-Interim reanalysis reveals the dominant effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. Two EOFs are necessary to capture the ENSO signature, and regression relationships between their Principal Components and indices of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) demonstrate that the transition from strong La Niña through to extreme El Niño events is not a linear one. The largest deviation from linearity is for the strongest El Niños, and we interpret that this arises at least partly because the EOF analysis cannot easily separate different patterns of responses that are not orthogonal to each other. To overcome the orthogonality constraints, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis of the same moisture divergence fields was performed. The SOM analysis captures the range of responses to ENSO, including the distinction between the moderate and strong El Niños identified by the EOF analysis. The work demonstrates the potential for the application of SOM to large scale climatic analysis, by virtue of its easier interpretation, relaxation of orthogonality constraints and its versatility for serving as an alternative classification method. Both the EOF and SOM analyses suggest a classification of “moderate” and “extreme” El Niños by their differences in the magnitudes of the hydrological cycle responses, spatial patterns and evolutionary paths. Classification from the moisture divergence point of view shows consistency with results based on other physical variables such as SST

Challenges of classifying and mapping perennial freshwater systems within highly variable climate zones: A case study in the Murray Darling Basin, Australia

Perennial freshwater systems are valuable natural resources that provide important ecological services globally. However, in highly variable climates, such as Australia, water availability in rivers and streams can vary greatly from year to year and from decade to decade. Further, across Australia and many other regions, perennial river systems are projected to decrease because of anthropogenic climate change, placing the ecosystems they support under additional pressure. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on perennial freshwater systems requires robust databases of existing water features with accurate classifications. This is a challenge for rivers that display a high degree of interannual variability since the river classification can be dependent on the period of available data. In this study, we carry out a regional scale comparison of three different spatial databases commonly used in environmental and ecological assessments of perennial systems of Australia, namely Geodata, Geofabric and Water Observations from Space (WOfS). Focusing on the southern Murray Darling Basin (MDB), due to its national and international significance and its highly variable flow regimes, we show that no single spatial database is reliable by itself in terms of perennial water classification, with notable differences likely arising from variations in the periods analysed and methods used to classify the systems. Further, an analysis of high-quality gauged streamflow data (with approximately 40-year daily records) for four sub-catchments, and long-term simulation data (>100 years) for two sub-catchments in the lower MDB, confirm that flow persistence can be non-stationary through time, with some 'perennial' systems exhibiting sustained periods of cease to flow (i.e. becoming non-perennial) during prolonged droughts. This study demonstrates that due consideration is required in developing baseline classification of perennial freshwater systems for assessing future changes and measuring adaptive capacity

On the uncertainties associated with using gridded rainfall data as a proxy for observed

Gridded rainfall datasets have been used in many hydrological and climatological studies in Australia, including hydroclimatic forecasting, climate attribution studies and climate model assessments. Recently, as part of the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP), a new high quality Australia-wide gridded monthly rainfall dataset was released. The AWAP dataset is in addition to the currently available Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) monthly gridded rainfall dataset, and the SILO monthly gridded rainfall dataset, produced by the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management. With the availability of gridded data, the question must be asked as to whether it is suitable for use as a proxy for observed data, given that gridded (or virtual) data is inherently ‘smoothed’ and may not necessarily capture events which lead to hydrological extremes. This is a serious concern if using gridded data for hydrological and climatological studies. In this paper, this question is investigated through a statistical comparison between the AWAP, BOM and SILO gridded datasets and gauged data across South Australia. It is shown that the various gridded datasets may not suitably represent high or low rainfall events. To demonstrate the hydrological implications of this, a rainfall-runoff model is applied in one catchment in South Australia using gridded data as the source of rainfall input and the results indicate a markedly different runoff response to that which is obtained when gauged (i.e. point) rainfall data is used

Hydroclimate proxies for eastern Australia using stable isotopes in grey mangroves (Avicennia marina)

The development of high-resolution terrestrial palaeoclimate records in Australia is hindered by the scarcity of tree species suitable for conventional dendrochronology. However, novel analytical techniques have made it possible to obtain climate information from tree species that do not reliably form annual growth rings. In this paper we assess the potential of stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in the xylem wood of grey mangroves (Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh.) as hydroclimate proxies for eastern Australia. Bomb-pulse radiocarbon dating and simple age models were used to estimate the age of the growth layers in radial sequence in stems from four grey mangrove trees in two adjacent estuaries in New South Wales, Australia. Stable isotope data measured from the xylem wood of the four stems were composited to yield mean δ18O and δ13C series for the 1962–2016 period. Significant negative Spearman correlations were found between δ18O and rainfall, sea level, instrumental Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while δ13C was positively correlated with temperature, vapour pressure and evapotranspiration. The results demonstrate that stable oxygen isotopes in grey mangroves have the potential to yield valuable information about pre-instrumental hydroclimate. Grey mangroves can survive with intact centres for an estimate of >250 years based on observed growth rates, are widespread along northern Australian and tropical coastlines and could provide important information regarding pre-instrumental climate in regions currently lacking high-resolution (i.e., near annual) centennial scale climate proxy records.No Full Tex

On the recent hiatus of tropical cyclones landfalling in NSW, Australia

It is well known that severe storms result in some of the costliest natural disasters for New South Wales (NSW), Australia. However, it is not widely acknowledged that some of these events are, in fact, a result of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Indeed, the intense focus of TC research within the tropics generally disregards landfalling TC events in the mid-latitude regions of Australia. This is likely due to the perceived infrequency of these events compared to other more susceptible regions. Therefore, in this study, we review this assumption by developing a 150-year record of TC activity, based on a range of digitised and analogue historical datasets and identify 30 individual landfalling TCs that have impacted NSW. Periods of enhanced and reduced TC activity are observed, with a defined hiatus (absence of landfalling TCs) after approximately 1980. The recent decrease in TC activity is subsequently linked to an increase in El Niño activity and warming of north-west Australian sea-surface temperatures during this time. Importantly, it is possible that a return to enhanced TC activity could occur again in the future if the Pacific conditions align. We also propose that pre-instrumental data on TC activity need to be developed to appropriately quantify TC risk for the study region via the development of local palaeoclimate archives. This study provides a significant contribution to understanding the risks of NSW landfalling TCs and expands upon our knowledge of environmental conditions that influence landfalling TCs in NSW