The role of population PK-PD modelling in paediatric clinical research

Children differ from adults in their response to drugs. While this may be the result of changes in dose exposure (pharmacokinetics [PK]) and/or exposure response (pharmacodynamics [PD]) relationships, the magnitude of these changes may not be solely reflected by differences in body weight. As a consequence, dosing recommendations empirically derived from adults dosing regimens using linear extrapolations based on body weight, can result in therapeutic failure, occurrence of adverse effect or even fatalities. In order to define rational, patient-tailored dosing schemes, population PK-PD studies in children are needed. For the analysis of the data, population modelling using non-linear mixed effect modelling is the preferred tool since this approach allows for the analysis of sparse and unbalanced datasets. Additionally, it permits the exploration of the influence of different covariates such as body weight and age to explain the variability in drug response. Finally, using this approach, these PK-PD studies can be designed in the most efficient manner in order to obtain the maximum information on the PK-PD parameters with the highest precision. Once a population PK-PD model is developed, internal and external validations should be performed. If the model performs well in these validation procedures, model simulations can be used to define a dosing regimen, which in turn needs to be tested and challenged in a prospective clinical trial. This methodology will improve the efficacy/safety balance of dosing guidelines, which will be of benefit to the individual child

HIV Infection among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Kampala, Uganda–A Respondent Driven Sampling Survey

Uganda's generalized HIV epidemic is well described, including an estimated adult male HIV prevalence in Kampala of 4.5%, but no data are available on the prevalence of and risk factors for HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM).From May 2008 to February 2009, we used respondent-driven sampling to recruit MSM ≥18 years old in Kampala who reported anal sex with another man in the previous three months. We collected demographic and HIV-related behavioral data through audio computer-assisted self-administered interviews. Laboratory testing included biomarkers for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. We obtained population estimates adjusted for the non-random sampling frame using RDSAT and STATA. 300 MSM were surveyed over 11 waves; median age was 25 years (interquartile range, 21-29 years). Overall HIV prevalence was 13.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.9%-20.1%), and was higher among MSM ≥25 years (22.4%) than among MSM aged 18-24 years (3.9%, odds ratio [OR] 5.69, 95% CI 2.02-16.02). In multivariate analysis, MSM ≥25 years (adjusted OR [aOR] 4.32, 95% CI 1.33-13.98) and those reporting ever having been exposed to homophobic abuse (verbal, moral, sexual, or physical abuse; aOR 5.38, 95% CI 1.95-14.79) were significantly more likely to be HIV infected.MSM in Kampala are at substantially higher risk for HIV than the general adult male population. MSM reporting a lifetime history of homophobic abuse are at increased risk of being HIV infected. Legal challenges and stigma must be overcome to provide access to tailored HIV prevention and care services

Study design and methods of the BoTULS trial: a randomised controlled trial to evaluate the clinical effect and cost effectiveness of treating upper limb spasticity due to stroke with botulinum toxin type A

Background Following a stroke, 55–75% of patients experience upper limb problems in the longer term. Upper limb spasticity may cause pain, deformity and reduced function, affecting mood and independence. Botulinum toxin is used increasingly to treat focal spasticity, but its impact on upper limb function after stroke is unclear. The aim of this study is to evaluate the clinical and cost effectiveness of botulinum toxin type A plus an upper limb therapy programme in the treatment of post stroke upper limb spasticity. Methods Trial design : A multi-centre open label parallel group randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation. Participants : Adults with upper limb spasticity at the shoulder, elbow, wrist or hand and reduced upper limb function due to stroke more than 1 month previously. Interventions : Botulinum toxin type A plus upper limb therapy (intervention group) or upper limb therapy alone (control group). Outcomes : Outcome assessments are undertaken at 1, 3 and 12 months. The primary outcome is upper limb function one month after study entry measured by the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT). Secondary outcomes include: spasticity (Modified Ashworth Scale); grip strength; dexterity (Nine Hole Peg Test); disability (Barthel Activities of Daily Living Index); quality of life (Stroke Impact Scale, Euroqol EQ-5D) and attainment of patient-selected goals (Canadian Occupational Performance Measure). Health and social services resource use, adverse events, use of other antispasticity treatments and patient views on the treatment will be compared. Participants are clinically reassessed at 3, 6 and 9 months to determine the need for repeat botulinum toxin type A and/or therapy. Randomisation : A web based central independent randomisation service. Blinding : Outcome assessments are undertaken by an assessor who is blinded to the randomisation group. Sample size : 332 participants provide 80% power to detect a 15% difference in treatment successes between intervention and control groups. Treatment success is defined as improvement of 3 points for those with a baseline ARAT of 0–3 and 6 points for those with ARAT of 4–56

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

A school-based program implemented by community providers previously trained for the prevention of eating and weight-related problems in secondary-school adolescents : the MABIC study protocol

Background: The prevention of eating disorders and disordered eating are increasingly recognized as public health priorities. Challenges in this field included moving from efficacy to effectiveness and developing an integrated approach to the prevention of a broad spectrum of eating and weight-related problems. A previous efficacy trial indicated that a universal disordered eating prevention program, based on the social cognitive model, media literacy educational approach and cognitive dissonance theory, reduced risk factors for disordered eating, but it is unclear whether this program has effects under more real-world conditions. The main aim of this effectiveness trial protocol is to test whether this program has effects when incorporating an integrated approach to prevention and when previously-trained community providers implement the intervention. Methods/design: The research design involved a multi-center non-randomized controlled trial with baseline, post and 1-year follow-up measures. Six schools from the city of Sabadell (close to Barcelona) participated in the intervention group, and eleven schools from four towns neighboring Sabadell participated in the control group. A total of 174 girls and 180 boys in the intervention group, and 484 girls and 490 boys in the control group were registered in class lists prior to baseline. A total of 18 community providers, secondary-school class tutors, nurses from the Catalan Government's Health and School Program, and health promotion technicians from Sabadell City Council were trained and delivered the program. Shared risk factors of eating and weight-related problems were assessed as main measures. Discussion: It will be vital for progress in disordered eating prevention to conduct effectiveness trials, which test whether interventions are effective when delivered by community providers under ecologically valid conditions, as opposed to tightly controlled research trials. The MABIC project will provide new contributions in this transition from efficacy to effectiveness and new data about progress in the integrated approach to prevention. Pending the results, the effectiveness trial meets the effectiveness standards set down by the Society for Prevention Research. This study will provide new evidence to improve and enhance disordered eating prevention programs

Short-Lived Trace Gases in the Surface Ocean and the Atmosphere

The two-way exchange of trace gases between the ocean and the atmosphere is important for both the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and the biogeochemistry of the oceans, including the global cycling of elements. Here we review these exchanges and their importance for a range of gases whose lifetimes are generally short compared to the main greenhouse gases and which are, in most cases, more reactive than them. Gases considered include sulphur and related compounds, organohalogens, non-methane hydrocarbons, ozone, ammonia and related compounds, hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Finally, we stress the interactivity of the system, the importance of process understanding for modeling, the need for more extensive field measurements and their better seasonal coverage, the importance of inter-calibration exercises and finally the need to show the importance of air-sea exchanges for global cycling and how the field fits into the broader context of Earth System Science

HIV Risk and Associations of HIV Infection among men who have sex with men in Peri-Urban Cape Town, South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Sub Saharan Africa has been traditionally assumed to be driven by high risk heterosexual and vertical transmission. However, there is an increasing body of data highlighting the disproportionate burden of HIV infection among MSM in the generalized HIV epidemics across of Southern Africa. In South Africa specifically, there has been an increase in attention focused on the risk status and preventive needs of MSM both in urban centers and peri-urban townships. The study presented here represents the first evaluation of HIV prevalence and associations of HIV infection among MSM in the peri-urban townships of Cape Town.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study consisted of an anonymous probe of 200 men, reporting ever having had sex with another man, recruited through venue-base sampling from January to February, 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, HIV prevalence was 25.5% (n = 51/200). Of these prevalent HIV infections, only 6% of HIV-1 infected MSM were aware of their HIV status (3/50). 0% of men reported always having safe sex as defined by always wearing condoms during sex and using water-based lubricants. Independent associations with HIV infection included inconsistent condom use with male partners (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0-5.4), having been blackmailed (aOR 4.4, 95% CI 1.6-20.2), age over 26 years (aOR 4.2, 95% CI 1.6-10.6), being unemployed (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.3), and rural origin (aOR 6.0, 95% CI 2.2-16.7). Bisexual activity was reported by 17.1% (34/199), and a total of 8% (16/200) reported having a regular female partner. Human rights violations were common with 10.5% (n = 21/200) reporting having been blackmailed and 21.0% (n = 42/200) reporting being afraid to seek health care.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The conclusions from this study include that a there is a high risk and underserved population of MSM in the townships surrounding Cape Town. The high HIV prevalence and high risk sexual practices suggest that prevalence will continue to increase among these men in the context of an otherwise slowing epidemic. These data further highlight the need to better characterize risk factors for HIV prevention and appropriate targeted combination packages of HIV interventions including biomedical, behavioural, and structural approaches to mitigate HIV risk among these men.</p

Wolbachia-Induced Unidirectional Cytoplasmic Incompatibility and Speciation: Mainland-Island Model

Bacteria of the genus Wolbachia are among the most common endosymbionts in the world. In many insect species these bacteria induce a sperm-egg incompatibility between the gametes of infected males and uninfected females, commonly called unidirectional cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI). It is generally believed that unidirectional CI cannot promote speciation in hosts because infection differences between populations will be unstable and subsequent gene flow will eliminate genetic differences between diverging populations. In the present study we investigate this question theoretically in a mainland-island model with migration from mainland to island. Our analysis shows that (a) the infection polymorphism is stable below a critical migration rate, (b) an (initially) uninfected “island” can better maintain divergence at a selected locus (e.g. can adapt locally) in the presence of CI, and (c) unidirectional CI selects for premating isolation in (initially) uninfected island populations if they receive migration from a Wolbachia-infected mainland. Interestingly, premating isolation is most likely to evolve if levels of incompatibility are intermediate and if either the infection causes fecundity reductions or Wolbachia transmission is incomplete. This is because under these circumstances an infection pattern with an infected mainland and a mostly uninfected island can persist in the face of comparably high migration. We present analytical results for all three findings: (a) a lower estimation of the critical migration rate in the presence of local adaptation, (b) an analytical approximation for the gene flow reduction caused by unidirectional CI, and (c) a heuristic formula describing the invasion success of mutants at a mate preference locus. These findings generally suggest that Wolbachia-induced unidirectional CI can be a factor in divergence and speciation of hosts

HIV Prevalence, Risks for HIV Infection, and Human Rights among Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM) in Malawi, Namibia, and Botswana

BACKGROUND: In the generalized epidemics of HIV in southern Sub-Saharan Africa, men who have sex with men have been largely excluded from HIV surveillance and research. Epidemiologic data for MSM in southern Africa are among the sparsest globally, and HIV risk among these men has yet to be characterized in the majority of countries. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional anonymous probe of 537 men recruited with non-probability sampling among men who reported ever having had sex with another man in Malawi, Namibia, and Botswana using a structured survey instrument and HIV screening with the OraQuick(c) rapid test kit. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The HIV prevalence among those between the ages of 18 and 23 was 8.3% (20/241); 20.0% (42/210) among those 24-29; and 35.7% (30/84) among those older than 30 for an overall prevalence of 17.4% (95% CI 14.4-20.8). In multivariate logistic regressions, being older than 25 (aOR 4.0, 95% CI 2.0-8.0), and not always wearing condoms during sex (aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-4.9) were significantly associated with being HIV-positive. Sexual concurrency was common with 16.6% having ongoing concurrent stable relationships with a man and a woman and 53.7% had both male and female sexual partners in proceeding 6 months. Unprotected anal intercourse was common and the use of petroleum-based lubricants was also common when using condoms. Human rights abuses, including blackmail and denial of housing and health care was prevalent with 42.1% (222/527) reporting at least one abuse. CONCLUSIONS: MSM are a high-risk group for HIV infection and human rights abuses in Malawi, Namibia, and Botswana. Concurrency of sexual partnerships with partners of both genders may play important roles in HIV spread in these populations. Further epidemiologic and evaluative research is needed to assess the contribution of MSM to southern Africa's HIV epidemics and how best to mitigate this. These countries should initiate and adequately fund evidence-based and targeted HIV prevention programs for MSM