Debt sustainability analysis for euro area sovereigns: A methodological framework

The euro area sovereign debt crisis has highlighted the importance of reducing public debt levels and building up sufficient fiscal buffers during normal and good times. It has also reaffirmed the need for a thorough debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to act as a warning system for national policies. This paper introduces a comprehensive DSA framework for euro area sovereigns that could be used for analysis of fiscal risks and vulnerabilities. Specifically, this framework consists of three main building blocks: (i) a deterministic DSA, which embeds debt simulations under a benchmark and various narrative shock scenarios; (ii) a stochastic DSA, providing for a probabilistic approach to debt sustainability; and (iii) other relevant indicators capturing liquidity and solvency risks. The information embedded in the three main DSA blocks can be summarised in a heat map, which can provide guidance on the overall assessment of risks to debt sustainability. This method reflects the need to have a broad-based assessment, cross-checking information and perspectives from various sources with a view to deriving a robust debt sustainability assessment

Burned area mapping in the brazilian savanna using a one-class support vector machine trained by active fires

We used the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) active fire data (375 m spatial resolution) to automatically extract multispectral samples and train a One-Class Support Vector Machine for burned area mapping, and applied the resulting classification algorithm to 300-m spatial resolution imagery from the Project for On-Board Autonomy-Vegetation (PROBA-V). The active fire data were screened to prevent extraction of unrepresentative burned area samples and combined with surface reflectance bi-weekly composites to produce burned area maps. The procedure was applied over the Brazilian Cerrado savanna, validated with reference maps obtained from Landsat images and compared with the Collection 6 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Burned Area product (MCD64A1) Results show that the algorithm developed improved the detection of small-sized scars and displayed results more similar to the reference data than MCD64A1. Unlike active fire-based region growing algorithms, the proposed approach allows for the detection and mapping of burn scars without active fires, thus eliminating a potential source of omission error. The burned area mapping approach presented here should facilitate the development of operational-automated burned area algorithms, and is very straightforward for implementation with other sensorsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Subnational climate entrepreneurship: innovative climate action in California and São Paulo

The distinct role of subnational governments such as states and provinces in addressing climate change has been increasingly acknowledged. But while most studies investigate the causes and consequences of particular governments’ actions and networking activities, this article argues that subnational governments can develop climate action as a collective entrepreneurial activity. Addressing many elements explored in this special issue, it focuses on the second question and identifies climate entrepreneurship in two subnational governments—the states of California (USA) and São Paulo (Brazil). Examining internal action, as well as interaction with local authorities, national governments and the international regime, entrepreneurial activities are identified in the invention, diffusion and evaluation of subnational climate policy in each case. The article draws from the recent scholarship on policy innovation, entrepreneurship and climate governance. It contributes to the literature by exploring entrepreneurial subnational government activity in addressing climate change and expanding the understanding of the effects of policy innovation at the subnational level

Test methods to determine durability of concrete under combined environmental actions and mechanical load: final report of RILEM TC 246-TDC

At present several methods are available to predict the durability of reinforced concrete structures. In most cases, one dominant deterioration process such as carbonation or chloride penetration is taken into consideration. Experimental results as well as observations in practice show that this is not a realistic and certainly not a conservative approach. In order to test more realistically, RILEM TC 246-TDC, founded in 2011, has developed a method to determine the durability of concrete exposed to the combined action of chloride penetration and mechanical load. In this report, a test method is presented which allows determination of realistic diffusion coefficients for chloride ions in concrete under compressive or tensile stress. Comparative test results from five different laboratories showed that the combination of mechanical and environmental loads may be much more severe than a single environmental load without mechanical loading. Modelling and probabilistic analysis also showed that the obvious synergetic effects cannot be neglected in realistic service life prediction

Transnationalization of climate adaptation by regional governments and the RegionsAdapt initiative

Adaptation to climate change has traditionally been framed as a local problem. However, in recent years, adaptation has risen on the global policy agenda. This article contributes to the study of transnational climate adaptation through an investigation of international connectivity on climate adaptation between regional policy-makers. We examine the RegionsAdapt initiative, the first global commitment to promote and track the progress of regional adaptation. While adapting to climate change at the regional level is crucial, we suggest that transnational adaptation governance not only helps to promote adaptation measures, but also improves the process of tracking the progress of such action, its visibility and its aggregation

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

FOCOS DE QUEIMADAS NAS UNIDADES DE CONSERVAÇÃO E TERRAS INDÍGENAS DO PANTANAL, 2000-2008

Este estudo quantificou a ocorrência de focos de queima de vegetação detectados por satélites em duas Unidades de Conservação (UCF) Federais, seis Estaduais (UCE) e sete Terras Indígenas (TI) do bioma Pantanal no período 2000 a 2008. Considerando as imagens dos satélites disponíveis, 15 áreas de proteção apresentaram focos. Limitando as detecções à série referencial dos satélites NOAA-12 e NOAA-15, apenas uma UCE, de superfície mínima, não teve registros de focos. Como a maioria dos focos concentrou-se nos meses de seca, quando não ocorrem raios, deduz-se que o fogo eventual foi de origem antrópica. O ano de 2005 foi o mais seco do período, com ~100 mm de precipitação abaixo da normal climatológica para a região; e nele, o trimestre naturalmente seco de julho-agosto-setembro (JAS) concentrou o maior número focos nas áreas estudadas, 2637. Nos anos de 2003, 2006 e 2008, com precipitação acima da média, foram observadas as menores quantidades de focos. Em 2003, o ano mais úmido com ~100 mm acima da normal em JAS verificou-se apenas 10 focos. Estes resultados indicam que as áreas de proteção no Pantanal podem ser significativamente afetadas pelo fogo de origem antrópica, particularmente nos anos de estiagem pronunciada. Palavras-chave: Fogo. Unidades de conservação. Terras indígenas. Pantanal. Satélites. Fires in Conservation Units and Indigenous Territories at Pantanal, 2000-2008 This study quantified the occurrence of vegetation fires detected by satellites in two federal and six state conservation units (respectively FC and SC) and seven Indigenous territories (IT) in the Brazilian Pantanal biome for the period 2000-2008. Considering all images from the available satellites, fire pixels occurred in all of these 15 protection areas. When limited to the reference series using data from the NOAA-12 and NOAA-15 satellites, only one SC showed no fires. Since the majority of the fires concentrated in the dry months, and therefore when no lightning occurs, one concludes that the fires had an anthropogenic origin. The year of 2005 was the driest in the period, with ~100 mm of precipitation below the climatic normal in the region, and its naturally dry trimester of July-August-September (JAS) concentrated the largest amount of fire pixels, 2637. The years of 2003, 2006 and 2008, with precipitation above the average, had the lowest amounts of fires, and 2003, the wettest, with about 100 mm above the normal on JAS, had just 10 fire pixels. The results indicate that the protected areas in the Pantanal can be significantly affected by fires of anthropogenic origin, particularly in the years of pronounced drought. Key words: Fire. Conservation units. Indigenous territories. Pantanal. Satellites

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved

Mapeamento de Áreas Queimadas em Unidades de Conservação da Região Serrana do Rio de Janeiro Utilizando o Satélite Landsat-8 Durante a Seca de 2014

Entre janeiro de 2014 e fevereiro de 2015, a região Sudeste do Brasil experimentou uma das maiores secas de sua história, favorecendo um aumento significativo no número de incêndios florestais na Região Serrana do Rio de Janeiro (RSRJ). Neste contexto, o objetivo deste trabalho é mapear a extensão das áreas queimadas via sensoriamento remoto, em três Unidades de Conservação da RSRJ: Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) de Petrópolis, Parque Nacional da Serra dos Órgãos (PARNASO) e Reserva Biológica (REBIO) de Araras. A estimativa das áreas queimadas é feita com base no índice de queimadas W utilizando imagens pré e pós-fogo das bandas 5 (0,88 μm) e 7 (2,11 μm) do sensor OLI/Landsat-8. Limiares espaciais e temporais de W foram estabelecidos e o mapeamento foi realizado considerando a superfície modelada através do Modelo Digital de Elevação SRTM Plus. O total de área queimada estimada foi de 3904 ha, a APA, PARNASO e REBIO com 2819 ha, 850 ha e 236 ha respectivamente. Os resultados foram corroborados pelos focos de calor obtidos por satélites provenientes do Banco de Dados de Queimadas do INPE e pelos pareceres técnicos oficiais elaborados in situ pelo Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade (ICMBio)