Game theory of mind

This paper introduces a model of ‘theory of mind’, namely, how we represent the intentions and goals of others to optimise our mutual interactions. We draw on ideas from optimum control and game theory to provide a ‘game theory of mind’. First, we consider the representations of goals in terms of value functions that are prescribed by utility or rewards. Critically, the joint value functions and ensuing behaviour are optimised recursively, under the assumption that I represent your value function, your representation of mine, your representation of my representation of yours, and so on ad infinitum. However, if we assume that the degree of recursion is bounded, then players need to estimate the opponent's degree of recursion (i.e., sophistication) to respond optimally. This induces a problem of inferring the opponent's sophistication, given behavioural exchanges. We show it is possible to deduce whether players make inferences about each other and quantify their sophistication on the basis of choices in sequential games. This rests on comparing generative models of choices with, and without, inference. Model comparison is demonstrated using simulated and real data from a ‘stag-hunt’. Finally, we note that exactly the same sophisticated behaviour can be achieved by optimising the utility function itself (through prosocial utility), producing unsophisticated but apparently altruistic agents. This may be relevant ethologically in hierarchal game theory and coevolution

ATM variants 7271T>G and IVS10-6T>G among women with unilateral and bilateral breast cancer

Recent reports suggest that two ATM gene mutations, 7271T>G and IVS10-6T>G, are associated with a high risk of breast cancer among multiple-case families. To assess the importance of these two mutations in another 'high-risk' group, young women (under age 51) with multiple primaries, we screened a large population-based series of young women with bilateral breast cancer and compared the frequency of these mutations among similar women diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer. The 1149 women included were enrolled in an ongoing population-based case-control study of the genetic factors that contribute to bilateral breast cancer; they were not selected on the basis of family history of cancer. Screening for 7271T>G and IVS10-6T>G ATM gene mutations was conducted using DHPLC followed by direct sequencing. The 7271T>G mutation was detected in one out of 638 (0.2%) women with unilateral breast cancer and in none of the bilateral cases, and the IVS10-6T>G mutation in one out of 511 (0.2%) bilateral and in eight out of 638 (1.3%) unilateral breast cancer cases. Carriers of either mutation were not limited to women with a family history. Given the likelihood that young women with bilateral breast cancer have a genetic predisposition, the observed mutation distribution is contrary to that expected if these two mutations were to play an important role in breast carcinogenesis among individuals at high risk

Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

BACKGROUND: Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. METHODS: The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. RESULTS: Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897–0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002–0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. CONCLUSION: The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System

Cigarette Smoking in Male Patients with Chronic Schizophrenia in a Chinese Population: Prevalence and Relationship to Clinical Phenotypes

The high prevalence of smoking in schizophrenia of European background may be related to smoking's reducing clinical symptoms and medication side effects. Because smoking prevalence and its associations with clinical phenotypes are less well characterized in Chinese than European patients with schizophrenia, we assessed these smoking behaviors using clinician-administered questionnaires and the Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) in 776 Chinese male schizophrenia and 560 control subjects. Patients also were rated on the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS), the Simpson and Angus Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale (SAES), and the Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS). We found that the schizophrenia patients had a higher lifetime incidence of smoking (79% vs 63%), were more likely to be heavy smokers (61% vs 31%), and had lower smoking cessation rates (4% vs 9%) (all p<0.0001) than controls. Among the schizophrenia patients smoking prevalence increased with age, with the largest difference from controls in the age cohort of 55–75 years: 75% vs 46% (p<0.0001). Among the schizophrenia smokers 73% started to smoke before the onset of their illness by an average of 7.6 years. The patients with schizophrenia who were current smokers scored significantly lower on the PANSS negative symptom subscore (p<0.005), and on the SAES symptom scale (p<0.04; Bonferroni corrected p>0.05) than the non-smoking patients. These results suggest that Chinese males with schizophrenia smoke more frequently than the general population. Further, smokers with schizophrenia may display fewer negative symptoms and possibly less parkinsonism than non-smokers with schizophrenia

Aconitase Regulation of Erythropoiesis Correlates with a Novel Licensing Function in Erythropoietin-Induced ERK Signaling

Erythroid development requires the action of erythropoietin (EPO) on committed progenitors to match red cell output to demand. In this process, iron acts as a critical cofactor, with iron deficiency blunting EPO-responsiveness of erythroid progenitors. Aconitase enzymes have recently been identified as possible signal integration elements that couple erythropoiesis with iron availability. In the current study, a regulatory role for aconitase during erythropoiesis was ascertained using a direct inhibitory strategy.In C57BL/6 mice, infusion of an aconitase active-site inhibitor caused a hypoplastic anemia and suppressed responsiveness to hemolytic challenge. In a murine model of polycythemia vera, aconitase inhibition rapidly normalized red cell counts, but did not perturb other lineages. In primary erythroid progenitor cultures, aconitase inhibition impaired proliferation and maturation but had no effect on viability or ATP levels. This inhibition correlated with a blockade in EPO signal transmission specifically via ERK, with preservation of JAK2-STAT5 and Akt activation. Correspondingly, a physical interaction between ERK and mitochondrial aconitase was identified and found to be sensitive to aconitase inhibition.Direct aconitase inhibition interferes with erythropoiesis in vivo and in vitro, confirming a lineage-selective regulatory role involving its enzymatic activity. This inhibition spares metabolic function but impedes EPO-induced ERK signaling and disturbs a newly identified ERK-aconitase physical interaction. We propose a model in which aconitase functions as a licensing factor in ERK-dependent proliferation and differentiation, thereby providing a regulatory input for iron in EPO-dependent erythropoiesis. Directly targeting aconitase may provide an alternative to phlebotomy in the treatment of polycythemia vera

Mortality by age, gene and gender in carriers of pathogenic mismatch repair gene variants receiving surveillance for early cancer diagnosis and treatment: a report from the prospective Lynch syndrome database

BACKGROUND: The Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) collates information on carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic MMR variants (path_MMR) who are receiving medical follow-up, including colonoscopy surveillance, which aims to the achieve early diagnosis and treatment of cancers. Here we use the most recent PLSD cohort that is larger and has wider geographical representation than previous versions, allowing us to present mortality as an outcome, and median ages at cancer diagnoses for the first time. METHODS: The PLSD is a prospective observational study without a control group that was designed in 2012 and updated up to October 2022. Data for 8500 carriers of path_MMR variants from 25 countries were included, providing 71,713 years of follow up. Cumulative cancer incidences at 65 years of age were combined with 10-year crude survival following cancer, to derive estimates of mortality up to 75 years of age by organ, gene, and gender. FINDINGS: Gynaecological cancers were more frequent than colorectal cancers in path_MSH2, path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 carriers [cumulative incidence: 53.3%, 49.6% and 23.3% at 75 years, respectively]. Endometrial, colon and ovarian cancer had low mortality [8%, 13% and 15%, respectively] and prostate cancers were frequent in male path_MSH2 carriers [cumulative incidence: 39.7% at 75 years]. Pancreatic, brain, biliary tract and ureter and kidney and urinary bladder cancers were associated with high mortality [83%, 66%, 58%, 27%, and 29%, respectively]. Among path_MMR carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance, particularly path_MSH2 carriers, more deaths followed non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers than colorectal cancers. INTERPRETATION: In path_MMR carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance, non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers were associated with more deaths than were colorectal cancers. Reducing deaths from non-colorectal cancers presents a key challenge in contemporary medical care in Lynch syndrome. FUNDING: We acknowledge funding from the Norwegian Cancer Society, contract 194751-2017