Origin, evolution and dynamic context of a Neoglacial lateral-frontal moraine at Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard

Moraines marking the Neoglacial limits in Svalbard are commonly ice cored. Investigating the nature of this relict ice is important because it can aid our understanding of former glacier dynamics. This paper examines the composition of the lateral–frontal moraine associated with the Neoglacial limit at Austre Lovénbreen and assesses the likely geomorphological evolution. The moraine was investigated using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), with context being provided by structural mapping of the glacier based on an oblique aerial image from 1936 and vertical aerial imagery from 2003. Multiple up-glacier dipping reflectors and syncline structures are found in the GPR surveys. The reflectors are most clearly defined in lateral positions, where the moraine is substantially composed of ice. The frontal area of the moraine is dominantly composed of debris. The core of the lateral part of the moraine is likely to consist of stacked sequences of basal ice that have been deformed by strong longitudinal compression. The long term preservation potential of the ice-dominated lateral moraine is negligible, whereas the preservation of the debris-dominated frontal moraine is high. A glacier surface bulge, identified on the 1936 aerial imagery, provides evidence that Austre Lovénbreen has previously displayed surge activity, although it is highly unlikely to do so in the near future in its current state. This research shows the value of relict buried ice that is preserved in landforms to aiding our understanding of former glacier characteristics

Bayesian models for syndrome- and gene-specific probabilities of novel variant pathogenicity

BACKGROUND: With the advent of affordable and comprehensive sequencing technologies, access to molecular genetics for clinical diagnostics and research applications is increasing. However, variant interpretation remains challenging, and tools that close the gap between data generation and data interpretation are urgently required. Here we present a transferable approach to help address the limitations in variant annotation. METHODS: We develop a network of Bayesian logistic regression models that integrate multiple lines of evidence to evaluate the probability that a rare variant is the cause of an individual's disease. We present models for genes causing inherited cardiac conditions, though the framework is transferable to other genes and syndromes. RESULTS: Our models report a probability of pathogenicity, rather than a categorisation into pathogenic or benign, which captures the inherent uncertainty of the prediction. We find that gene- and syndrome-specific models outperform genome-wide approaches, and that the integration of multiple lines of evidence performs better than individual predictors. The models are adaptable to incorporate new lines of evidence, and results can be combined with familial segregation data in a transparent and quantitative manner to further enhance predictions. Though the probability scale is continuous, and innately interpretable, performance summaries based on thresholds are useful for comparisons. Using a threshold probability of pathogenicity of 0.9, we obtain a positive predictive value of 0.999 and sensitivity of 0.76 for the classification of variants known to cause long QT syndrome over the three most important genes, which represents sufficient accuracy to inform clinical decision-making. A web tool APPRAISE [http://www.cardiodb.org/APPRAISE] provides access to these models and predictions. CONCLUSIONS: Our Bayesian framework provides a transparent, flexible and robust framework for the analysis and interpretation of rare genetic variants. Models tailored to specific genes outperform genome-wide approaches, and can be sufficiently accurate to inform clinical decision-making

Evolution of high-Arctic glacial landforms during deglaciation

Glacial landsystems in the high-Arctic have been reported to undergo geomorphological transformation during deglaciation. This research evaluates moraine evolution over a decadal timescale at Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard. This work is of interest because glacial landforms developed in Svalbard have been used as an analogue for landforms developed during Pleistocene mid-latitude glaciation. Ground penetrating radar was used to investigate the subsurface characteristics of moraines. To determine surface change, a LiDAR topographic data set (obtained 2003) and a UAV-derived (obtained 2014) digital surface model processed using structure-from-motion (SfM) are also compared. Evaluation of these data sets together enables subsurface character and landform response to climatic amelioration to be linked. Ground penetrating radar evidence shows that the moraine substrate at Midtre Lovénbreen includes ice-rich (radar velocities of 0.17 m ns−1) and debris-rich (radar velocities of 0.1–0.13 m ns−1) zones. The ice-rich zones are demonstrated to exhibit relatively high rates of surface change (mean thresholded rate of −4.39 m over the 11-year observation period). However, the debris-rich zones show a relatively low rate of surface change (mean thresholded rate of −0.98 m over the 11-year observation period), and the morphology of the debris-rich landforms appear stable over the observation period. A complex response of proglacial landforms to climatic warming is shown to occur within and between glacier forelands as indicated by spatially variable surface lowering rates. Landform response is controlled by the ice-debris balance of the moraine substrate, along with the topographic context (such as the influence of meltwater). Site-specific characteristics such as surface debris thickness and glaciofluvial drainage are, therefore, argued to be a highly important control on surface evolution in ice-cored terrain, resulting in a diverse response of high-Arctic glacial landsystems to climatic amelioration. These results highlight that care is needed when assessing the long-term preservation potential of contemporary landforms at high-Arctic glaciers. A better understanding of ice-cored terrain facilitates the development of appropriate age and climatic interpretations that can be obtained from palaeo ice-marginal landsystems

Visualizing 1D Regression

Regression is the study of the conditional distribution of the response y given the predictors x. In a 1D regression, y is independent of x given a single linear combination βTx of the predictors. Special cases of 1D regression include multiple linear regression, binary regression and generalized linear models. If a good estimate ˆb of some non-zero multiple cβ of β can be constructed, then the 1D regression can be visualized with a scatterplot of ˆbTx versus y. A resistant method for estimating cβ is presented along with applications

Monitoring cow comfort and rumen health indices in a cubicle-housed herd with an automatic milking system: a repeated measures approach

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s13620-015-0040-7.]

Western Australian public opinions of a minimum pricing policy for alcohol: study protocol

Background: Excessive alcohol consumption has significant adverse economic, social, and health outcomes. Recent estimates suggest that the annual economic costs of alcohol in Australia are up to AUD $36 billion. Policies influencing price have been demonstrated to be very effective in reducing alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harms. Interest in minimum pricing has gained traction in recent years. However, there has been little research investigating the level of support for the public interest case of minimum pricing in Australia. Objective: This article describes protocol for a study exploring Western Australian (WA) public knowledge, understanding, and reaction to a proposed minimum price policy per standard drink. Methods: The study will employ a qualitative methodological design. Participants will be recruited from a wide variety of backgrounds, including ethnic minorities, blue and white collar workers, unemployed, students, and elderly/retired populations to participate in focus groups. Focus group participants will be asked about their knowledge of, and initial reactions to, the proposed policy and encouraged to discuss how such a proposal may affect their own alcohol use and alcohol consumption at the population level. Participants will also be asked to discuss potential avenues for increasing acceptability of the policy. The focus groups will adopt a semi-structured, open-ended approach guided by a question schedule. The schedule will be based on feedback from pilot samples, previous research, and a steering group comprising experts in alcohol policy and pricing. Results: The study is expected to take approximately 14 months to complete. Conclusions: The findings will be of considerable interest and relevance to government officials, policy makers, researchers, advocacy groups, alcohol retail and licensed establishments and organizations, city and town planners, police, and other stakeholder organizations

Ethnic Differences in Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Between UK Children of Black African-Caribbean and White European Origin.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: UK black African-Caribbean adults have higher risks of stroke than white Europeans and have been shown to have increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT). We examined whether corresponding ethnic differences in cIMT were apparent in childhood and, if so, whether these could be explained by ethnic differences in cardiovascular risk markers. METHODS: We conducted a 2-stage survey of 939 children (208 white European, 240 black African-Caribbean, 258 South Asian, 63 other Asian, 170 other ethnicity), who had a cardiovascular risk assessment and measurements of cIMT at mean ages of 9.8 and 10.8 years, respectively. RESULTS: Black African-Caribbean children had a higher cIMT than white Europeans (mean difference, 0.014 mm; 95% CI, 0.008-0.021 mm; P<0.0001). cIMT levels in South Asian and other Asian children were however similar to those of white Europeans. Among all children, cIMT was positively associated with age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and inversely with combined skinfold thickness and serum triglyceride. Mean triglyceride was lower among black African-Caribbeans than white Europeans; blood pressure and skinfold thickness did not differ appreciably. However, adjustment for these risk factors had little effect on the cIMT difference between black African-Caribbeans and white Europeans. CONCLUSIONS: UK black African-Caribbean children have higher cIMT levels in childhood; the difference is not explained by conventional cardiovascular risk markers. There may be important opportunities for early cardiovascular prevention, particularly in black African-Caribbean children

To explore or to exploit? Learning humans' behaviour to maximize interactions with them

Assume a robot operating in a public space (e.g., a library, a museum) and serving visitors as a companion, a guide or an information stand. To do that, the robot has to interact with humans, which presumes that it actively searches for humans in order to interact with them. This paper addresses the problem how to plan robot's actions in order to maximize the number of such interactions in the case human behavior is not known in advance. We formulate this problem as the exploration/exploitation problem and design several strategies for the robot. The main contribution of the paper than lies in evaluation and comparison of the designed strategies on two datasets. The evaluation shows interesting properties of the strategies, which are discussed

An empirical method to estimate the effect of soil on the rate for transmission of damping‐off disease

The ability of some soils to suppress soil-borne diseases has been long recognised, but the underlying epidemiological mechanisms by which this occurs are largely unknown.• Using damping-off disease caused by Rhizoctonia solani, spreading through replicated populations of radish (Raphanus sativus) seedlings growing in soil or sand, we introduce and test a method to show how the suppressive effects of soil affect the rates of primary and secondary infection, which control amplification and spread of disease. The method involves spatial mapping of disease over time combined with an epidemiological analysis to distinguish primary from secondary infection in a dynamically changing population of susceptible hosts available for infection.• Analysis of the secondary transmission rates revealed three main trends: the transmission rate was lower for soil compared with sand; the transmission rate varied systematically with time, first increasing and then decreasing; and the transmission rate varied amongst replicate epidemics.• The consequences of these findings for damping-off epidemics and the potential of this type of analysis to contribute to an epidemiological understanding of the effect of soil on the suppression of epidemics are discussed

Using e-mail recruitment and an online questionnaire to establish effect size: A worked example

Background\ud Sample size calculations require effect size estimations. Sometimes, effect size estimations and standard deviation may not be readily available, particularly if efficacy is unknown because the intervention is new or developing, or the trial targets a new population. In such cases, one way to estimate the effect size is to gather expert opinion. This paper reports the use of a simple strategy to gather expert opinion to estimate a suitable effect size to use in a sample size calculation.\ud \ud Methods\ud Researchers involved in the design and analysis of clinical trials were identified at the University of Birmingham and via the MRC Hubs for Trials Methodology Research. An email invited them to participate.\ud \ud An online questionnaire was developed using the free online tool 'Survey Monkey©'. The questionnaire described an intervention, an electronic participant information sheet (e-PIS), which may increase recruitment rates to a trial. Respondents were asked how much they would need to see recruitment rates increased by, based on 90%. 70%, 50% and 30% baseline rates, (in a hypothetical study) before they would consider using an e-PIS in their research.\ud \ud Analyses comprised simple descriptive statistics.\ud \ud Results\ud The invitation to participate was sent to 122 people; 7 responded to say they were not involved in trial design and could not complete the questionnaire, 64 attempted it, 26 failed to complete it. Thirty-eight people completed the questionnaire and were included in the analysis (response rate 33%; 38/115). Of those who completed the questionnaire 44.7% (17/38) were at the academic grade of research fellow 26.3% (10/38) senior research fellow, and 28.9% (11/38) professor. Dependent upon the baseline recruitment rates presented in the questionnaire, participants wanted recruitment rate to increase from 6.9% to 28.9% before they would consider using the intervention.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud This paper has shown that in situations where effect size estimations cannot be collected from previous research, opinions from researchers and trialists can be quickly and easily collected by conducting a simple study using email recruitment and an online questionnaire. The results collected from the survey were successfully used in sample size calculations for a PhD research study protocol.\ud \u