PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK. METHODS: Using the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation. RESULTS: Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (18.9% vs. 19.0%) and WMCIU (17.5% vs. 18.3%) with area under receiver-operator-characteristic curves (AUC) of 0.81 and 0.79 respectively. Differences in breast cancer specific actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (12.9% vs. 13.5%) and <1.5% at eight years for WMCIU (12.2% vs. 13.6%) with AUC of 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. Model calibration was good for both ER positive and negative models although the ER positive model provided better discrimination (AUC 0.82) than ER negative (AUC 0.75). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a prognostication model for early breast cancer based on UK cancer registry data that predicts breast cancer survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer and includes mode of detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Inclusion of KI67 significantly improves performance of the PREDICT prognostication and prediction model for early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: PREDICT (http://www.predict.nhs.uk) is a prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early breast cancer (EBC). The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of KI67 status in a new version (v3), and compare performance with the Predict model that includes HER2 status (v2). METHODS: The validation study was based on 1,726 patients with EBC treated in Nottingham between 1989 and 1998. KI67 positivity for PREDICT is defined as >10% of tumour cells staining positive. ROC curves were constructed for Predict models with (v3) and without (v2) KI67 input. Comparison was made using the method of DeLong. RESULTS: In 1274 ER+ patients the predicted number of events at 10 years increased from 196 for v2 to 204 for v3 compared to 221 observed. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) improved from 0.7611 to 0.7676 (p=0.005) in ER+ patients and from 0.7546 to 0.7595 (p=0.0008) in all 1726 patients (ER+ and ER-). CONCLUSION: Addition of KI67 to PREDICT has led to a statistically significant improvement in the model performance for ER+ patients and will aid clinical decision making in these patients. Further studies should determine whether other markers including gene expression profiling provide additional prognostic information to that provided by PREDICT.SEARCH was funded through a programme grant from Cancer Research UK (C490/A10124) and this work is supported by the UK National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Cambridge.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from BioMed Central via http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2407-14-90

Recognizing Treelike k-Dissimilarities

A k-dissimilarity D on a finite set X, |X| >= k, is a map from the set of size k subsets of X to the real numbers. Such maps naturally arise from edge-weighted trees T with leaf-set X: Given a subset Y of X of size k, D(Y) is defined to be the total length of the smallest subtree of T with leaf-set Y . In case k = 2, it is well-known that 2-dissimilarities arising in this way can be characterized by the so-called "4-point condition". However, in case k > 2 Pachter and Speyer recently posed the following question: Given an arbitrary k-dissimilarity, how do we test whether this map comes from a tree? In this paper, we provide an answer to this question, showing that for k >= 3 a k-dissimilarity on a set X arises from a tree if and only if its restriction to every 2k-element subset of X arises from some tree, and that 2k is the least possible subset size to ensure that this is the case. As a corollary, we show that there exists a polynomial-time algorithm to determine when a k-dissimilarity arises from a tree. We also give a 6-point condition for determining when a 3-dissimilarity arises from a tree, that is similar to the aforementioned 4-point condition.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figure

Diets containing sea cucumber (Isostichopus badionotus) meals are hypocholesterolemic in young rats

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The holistic phase model of early adult crisis

The objective of the current study was to explore the structural, temporal and experiential manifestations of crisis episodes in early adulthood, using a holistic-systemic theoretical framework. Based on an analysis of 50 interviews with individuals about a crisis episode between the ages of 25 and 35, a holistic model was developed. The model comprises four phases: (1) Locked-in, (2) Separation/Time-out, (3) Exploration and (4) Rebuilding, which in turn have characteristic features at four levels—person-in-environment, identity, motivation and affect-cognition. A crisis starts out with a commitment at work or home that has been made but is no longer desired, and this is followed by an emotionally volatile period of change as that commitment is terminated. The positive trajectory of crisis involves movement through an exploratory period towards active rebuilding of a new commitment, but ‘fast-forward’ and ‘relapse’ loops can interrupt Phases 3 and 4 and make a positive resolution of the episode less likely. The model shows conceptual links with life stage theories of emerging adulthood and early adulthood, and it extends current understandings of the transitional developmental challenges that young adults encounter

Exclusive ρ0\rho^0 electroproduction on the proton at CLAS

The $e p\to e^\prime p \rho^0$ reaction has been measured, using the 5.754 GeV electron beam of Jefferson Lab and the CLAS detector. This represents the largest ever set of data for this reaction in the valence region. Integrated and differential cross sections are presented. The $W$, $Q^2$ and $t$ dependences of the cross section are compared to theoretical calculations based on $t$-channel meson-exchange Regge theory on the one hand and on quark handbag diagrams related to Generalized Parton Distributions (GPDs) on the other hand. The Regge approach can describe at the $\approx$ 30% level most of the features of the present data while the two GPD calculations that are presented in this article which succesfully reproduce the high energy data strongly underestimate the present data. The question is then raised whether this discrepancy originates from an incomplete or inexact way of modelling the GPDs or the associated hard scattering amplitude or whether the GPD formalism is simply inapplicable in this region due to higher-twists contributions, incalculable at present.Comment: 29 pages, 29 figure

Differences in genotype and virulence among four multidrug-resistant <i>Streptococcus pneumoniae</i> isolates belonging to the PMEN1 clone

We report on the comparative genomics and characterization of the virulence phenotypes of four &lt;i&gt;S. pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; strains that belong to the multidrug resistant clone PMEN1 (Spain&lt;sup&gt;23F&lt;/sup&gt; ST81). Strains SV35-T23 and SV36-T3 were recovered in 1996 from the nasopharynx of patients at an AIDS hospice in New York. Strain SV36-T3 expressed capsule type 3 which is unusual for this clone and represents the product of an in vivo capsular switch event. A third PMEN1 isolate - PN4595-T23 - was recovered in 1996 from the nasopharynx of a child attending day care in Portugal, and a fourth strain - ATCC700669 - was originally isolated from a patient with pneumococcal disease in Spain in 1984. We compared the genomes among four PMEN1 strains and 47 previously sequenced pneumococcal isolates for gene possession differences and allelic variations within core genes. In contrast to the 47 strains - representing a variety of clonal types - the four PMEN1 strains grouped closely together, demonstrating high genomic conservation within this lineage relative to the rest of the species. In the four PMEN1 strains allelic and gene possession differences were clustered into 18 genomic regions including the capsule, the blp bacteriocins, erythromycin resistance, the MM1-2008 prophage and multiple cell wall anchored proteins. In spite of their genomic similarity, the high resolution chinchilla model was able to detect variations in virulence properties of the PMEN1 strains highlighting how small genic or allelic variation can lead to significant changes in pathogenicity and making this set of strains ideal for the identification of novel virulence determinant

Onset of asymptotic scaling in deuteron photodisintegration

We investigate the transition from the nucleon-meson to quark-gluon description of the strong interaction using the photon energy dependence of the $d(\gamma,p)n$ differential cross section for photon energies above 0.5 GeV and center-of-mass proton angles between $30^{\circ}$ and $150^{\circ}$. A possible signature for this transition is the onset of cross section $s^{-11}$ scaling with the total energy squared, $s$, at some proton transverse momentum, $P_T$. The results show that the scaling has been reached for proton transverse momentum above about 1.1 GeV/c. This may indicate that the quark-gluon regime is reached above this momentum.Comment: Accepted by PRL; 5 pages, 2 figure

Two-Nucleon Momentum Distributions Measured in 3He(e,e'pp)n

We have measured the 3He(e,e'pp)n reaction at 2.2 GeV over a wide kinematic range. The kinetic energy distribution for `fast' nucleons (p > 250 MeV/c) peaks where two nucleons each have 20% or less, and the third nucleon has most of the transferred energy. These fast pp and pn pairs are back-to-back with little momentum along the three-momentum transfer, indicating that they are spectators. Experimental and theoretical evidence indicates that we have measured distorted two-nucleon momentum distributions by striking the third nucleon and detecting the spectator correlated pair.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, submitted to PR