Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

Adiposity has differing associations with incident coronary heart disease and mortality in the Scottish population: cross-sectional surveys with follow-up

Objective: Investigation of the association of excess adiposity with three different outcomes: all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and incident CHD. Design: Cross-sectional surveys linked to hospital admissions and death records. Subjects: 19 329 adults (aged 18–86 years) from a representative sample of the Scottish population. Measurements: Gender-stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CHD mortality and incident CHD. Separate models incorporating the anthropometric measurements body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist–hip ratio (WHR) were created adjusted for age, year of survey, smoking status and alcohol consumption. Results: For both genders, BMI-defined obesity (greater than or equal to30 kg m−2) was not associated with either an increased risk of all-cause mortality or CHD mortality. However, there was an increased risk of incident CHD among the obese men (hazard ratio (HR)=1.78; 95% confidence interval=1.37–2.31) and obese women (HR=1.93; 95% confidence interval=1.44–2.59). There was a similar pattern for WC with regard to the three outcomes; for incident CHD, the HR=1.70 (1.35–2.14) for men and 1.71 (1.28–2.29) for women in the highest WC category (men greater than or equal to102 cm, women greater than or equal to88 cm), synonymous with abdominal obesity. For men, the highest category of WHR (greater than or equal to1.0) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.29; 1.04–1.60) and incident CHD (1.55; 1.19–2.01). Among women with a high WHR (greater than or equal to0.85) there was an increased risk of all outcomes: all-cause mortality (1.56; 1.26–1.94), CHD mortality (2.49; 1.36–4.56) and incident CHD (1.76; 1.31–2.38). Conclusions: In this study excess adiposity was associated with an increased risk of incident CHD but not necessarily death. One possibility is that modern medical intervention has contributed to improved survival of first CHD events. The future health burden of increased obesity levels may manifest as an increase in the prevalence of individuals living with CHD and its consequences

Association of adiposity and mental health functioning across the lifespan:Findings from understanding society (The UK household longitudinal study)

Background: Evidence on the adiposity-mental health associations is mixed, with studies finding positive, negative or no associations, and less is known about how these associations may vary by age. Objective: To examine the association of adiposity -body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and percentage body fat (BF%)- with mental health functioning across the adult lifespan. Methods: Data from 11,257 participants (aged 18+) of Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study (waves 2 and 3, 5/2010-7/2013) were employed. Regressions of mental health functioning, assessed by the Mental Component Summary (MCS-12) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), on adiposity measures (continuous or dichotomous indicators) were estimated adjusted for covariates. Polynomial age-adiposity interactions were estimated. Results: Higher adiposity was associated with poorer mental health functioning. This emerged in the 30s, increased up to mid-40s (all central adiposity and obesity-BF% measures) or early 50s (all BMI measures) and then decreased with age. Underlying physical health generally accounted for these associations except for central adiposity, where associations remained statistically significant from the mid-30s to50s. Cardiovascular, followed by arthritis and endocrine, conditions played the greatest role in attenuating the associations under investigation. Conclusions: We found strong age-specific patterns in the adiposity-mental health functioning association that varied across adiposity measures. Underlying physical health had the dominant role in attenuating these associations. Policy makers and health professionals should target increased adiposity, mainly central adiposity, as it is a risk factor for poor mental health functioning in those aged between mid-30s to 50 years

Low oxygen saturation and mortality in an adult cohort; the Tromsø Study

Published version, also available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12890-015-0003-5Background: Oxygen saturation has been shown in risk score models to predict mortality in emergency medicine. The aim of this study was to determine whether low oxygen saturation measured by a single-point measurement by pulse oximetry (SpO2) is associated with increased mortality in the general adult population. Methods: Pulse oximetry was performed in 5,152 participants in a cross-sectional survey in Tromsø, Norway, in 2001–2002 (“Tromsø 5”). Ten-year follow-up data for all-cause mortality and cause of death were obtained from the National Population and the Cause of Death Registries, respectively. Cause of death was grouped into four categories: cardiovascular disease, cancer except lung cancer, pulmonary disease, and others. SpO2 categories were assessed as predictors for all-cause mortality and death using Cox proportional-hazards regression models after correcting for age, sex, smoking history, body mass index (BMI), C-reactive protein level, self-reported diseases, respiratory symptoms, and spirometry results. Results: The mean age was 65.8 years, and 56% were women. During the follow-up, 1,046 (20.3%) participants died. The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality were 1.99 (1.33–2.96) for SpO2 ≤ 92% and 1.36 (1.15–1.60) for SpO2 93–95%, compared with SpO2 ≥ 96%. In the multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models that included self-reported diseases, respiratory symptoms, smoking history, BMI, and CRP levels as the explanatory variables, SpO2 remained a significant predictor of all-cause mortality. However, after including forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted (FEV1% predicted), this association was no longer significant. Mortality caused by pulmonary diseases was significantly associated with SpO2 even when FEV1% predicted was included in the model. Conclusions: Low oxygen saturation was independently associated with increased all-cause mortality and mortality caused by pulmonary diseases. When FEV1% predicted was included in the analysis, the strength of the association weakened but was still statistically significant for mortality caused by pulmonary diseases

Association between depression, anxiety and weight change in young adults

Background To investigate whether there are bi-directional associations between anxiety and mood disorders and body mass index (BMI) in a cohort of young adults. Methods We analysed data from the 2004–2006 (baseline) and 2009–2011 (follow-up) waves of the Childhood Determinants of Adult Health study. Lifetime DSM-IV anxiety and mood disorders were retrospectively diagnosed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Potential mediators were individually added to the base models to assess their potential role as a mediator of the associations. Results In males, presence of mood disorder history at baseline was positively associated with BMI gain (β = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.14–1.40), but baseline BMI was not associated with subsequent risk of mood disorder. Further adjustment for covariates, including dietary pattern, physical activity, and smoking reduced the coefficient (β) to 0.70 (95% CI: 0.01–1.39), suggesting that the increase in BMI was partly mediated by these factors. In females, presence of mood disorder history at baseline was not associated with subsequent weight gain, however, BMI at baseline was associated with higher risk of episode of mood disorder (RR per kg/m2: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01–1.08), which was strengthened (RR per kg/m2 = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.00–1.15) after additional adjustment in the full model. There was no significant association between anxiety and change in BMI and vice-versa. Conclusion The results do not suggest bidirectional associations between anxiety and mood disorders, and change in BMI. Interventions promoting healthy lifestyle could contribute to reducing increase in BMI associated with mood disorder in males, and excess risk of mood disorder associated with BMI in females

Dairy products and total calcium intake at 13 years of age and its association with obesity at 21 years of age

Background/objectives: Dairy products and specifically calcium have been suggested to play a role in obesity development but more longitudinal evidence is still needed. The objective of this study was to assess the association between dairy products and total calcium intake at age 13 and body mass index at age 21. Subjects/methods: This longitudinal study included 2159 individuals from the Epidemiological Health Investigation of Teenagers cohort (EPITeen), Porto, Portugal, evaluated at ages 13 and 21. Assessment consisted of anthropometrics measurements and structured questionnaires namely a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire to appraise food consumption in the past 12 months. Linear regression models were run in 941 individuals with complete information of confounders: gender, follow-up period, parents’ education, physical activity, energy, and total calcium intake. Results: Negative association was found on total calcium intake at age 13 with BMI at age 21 (model 0: β = −0.059 (95% CI: −0.113, −0.004) and model 1: −0.057 (95% CI: −0.113, −0.002)), however, no statistically significant association was found when adjusting for energy intake (model 2: β = −0.031 (95% CI: −0.110, 0.047). There were no associations between milk, yogurt, and cheese consumption at age 13 and BMI at age 21 when adjusting for confounders. Conclusions: This study did not support an independent effect of dairy products or total calcium intake in adolescence on later early adulthood adiposity.This study was funded by FEDER through the Operational Programme Competitiveness and Internationalization and national funding from the Foundation for Science and Technology—FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education) (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-016829), under the project MetHyOS (Ref. FCT PTDC/DTP-EPI/6506/2014) and the Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia—Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit) (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006862; Ref. UID/DTP/04750/2013). Also this study was developed with the support of the research teams of the Department of Public Health and Forensic Sciences, and Medical Education, Faculty of Medicine of Porto University; the EPIUnit—Public Health Institute of Porto University; and the EPITeen Cohort Study

Waist circumference, abdominal obesity, and depression among overweight and obese U.S. adults: national health and nutrition examination survey 2005-2006

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Obesity is associated with an increased risk of mental illness; however, evidence linking body mass index (BMI)-a measure of overall obesity, to mental illness is inconsistent. The objective of this study was to examine the association of depressive symptoms with waist circumference or abdominal obesity among overweight and obese U.S. adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional, nationally representative sample from the 2005-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey was used. We analyzed the data from 2,439 U.S. adults (1,325 men and 1,114 nonpregnant women) aged ≥ 20 years who were either overweight or obese with BMI of ≥ 25.0 kg/m². Abdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference of > 102 cm for men and > 88 cm for women. Depressive symptoms (defined as having major depressive symptoms or moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms) were assessed by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 diagnostic algorithm. The prevalence and the odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for having major depressive symptoms and moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms were estimated using logistic regression analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After multivariate adjustment for demographics and lifestyle factors, waist circumference was significantly associated with both major depressive symptoms (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05) and moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms (OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04), and adults with abdominal obesity were significantly more likely to have major depressive symptoms (OR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.35-3.59) or have moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms (OR: 2.56, 95% CI: 1.34-4.90) than those without. These relationships persisted after further adjusting for coexistence of multiple chronic conditions and persisted in participants who were overweight (BMI: 25.0-< 30.0 kg/m²) when stratified analyses were conducted by BMI status.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Among overweight and obese U.S. adults, waist circumference or abdominal obesity was significantly associated with increased likelihoods of having major depressive symptoms or moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms. Thus, mental health status should be monitored and evaluated in adults with abdominal obesity, particularly in those who are overweight.</p