Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation

Development, testing and example applications of the pattern-scaling approach for generating future climate change projections are reported here, with a focus on a particular software application called “ClimGen”. A number of innovations have been implemented, including using exponential and logistic functions of global-mean temperature to represent changes in local precipitation and cloud cover, and interpolation from climate model grids to a finer grid while taking into account land-sea contrasts in the climate change patterns. Of particular significance is a new approach for incorporating changes in the inter-annual variability of monthly precipitation simulated by climate models. This is achieved by diagnosing simulated changes in the shape of the gamma distribution of monthly precipitation totals, applying the pattern-scaling approach to estimate changes in the shape parameter under a future scenario, and then perturbing sequences of observed precipitation anomalies so that their distribution changes according to the projected change in the shape parameter. The approach cannot represent changes to the structure of climate timeseries (e.g. changed autocorrelation or teleconnection patterns) were they to occur, but is shown here to be more successful at representing changes in low precipitation extremes than previous pattern-scaling methods

Assessing the efficacy of dietary selenomethionine supplementation in the setting of cardiac ischemia/reperfusion injury

© 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Cr. Oxidative stress is a major hallmark of cardiac ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury. This partly arises from the presence of activated phagocytes releasing myeloperoxidase (MPO) and its production of hypochlorous acid (HOCl). The dietary supplement selenomethionine (SeMet) has been shown to bolster endogenous antioxidant processes as well as readily react with MPO-derived oxidants. The aim of this study was to assess whether supplementation with SeMet could modulate the extent of cellular damage observed in an in vitro cardiac myocyte model exposed to (patho)-physiological levels of HOCl and an in vivo rat model of cardiac I/R injury. Exposure of the H9c2 cardiac myoblast cell line to HOCl resulted in a dose-dependent increase in necrotic cell death, which could be prevented by SeMet supplementation and was attributed to SeMet preventing the HOCl-induced loss of mitochondrial inner trans-membrane potential, and the associated cytosolic calcium accumulation. This protection was credited primarily to the direct oxidant scavenging ability of SeMet, with a minor contribution arising from the ability of SeMet to bolster cardiac myoblast glutathione peroxidase (GPx) activity. In vivo, a significant increase in selenium levels in the plasma and heart tissue were seen in male Wistar rats fed a diet supplemented with 2 mg kg−1 SeMet compared to controls. However, SeMet-supplementation demonstrated only limited improvement in heart function and did not result in better heart remodelling following I/R injury. These data indicate that SeMet supplementation is of potential benefit within pathological settings where excessive HOCl is known to be generated but has limited efficacy as a therapeutic agent for the treatment of heart attack

Individual variation in levels of haptoglobin-related protein in children from Gabon

Background: Haptoglobin related protein (Hpr) is a key component of trypanosome lytic factors (TLF), a subset of highdensity lipoproteins (HDL) that form the first line of human defence against African trypanosomes. Hpr, like haptoglobin (Hp) can bind to hemoglobin (Hb) and it is the Hpr-Hb complexes which bind to these parasites allowing uptake of TLF. This unique form of innate immunity is primate-specific. To date, there have been no population studies of plasma levels of Hpr, particularly in relation to hemolysis and a high prevalence of ahaptoglobinemia as found in malaria endemic areas. Methods and Principal Findings: We developed a specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to measure levels of plasma Hpr in Gabonese children sampled during a period of seasonal malaria transmission when acute phase responses (APR), malaria infection and associated hemolysis were prevalent. Median Hpr concentration was 0.28 mg/ml (range 0.03-1.1). This was 5-fold higher than that found in Caucasian children (0.049 mg/ml, range 0.002-0.26) with no evidence of an APR. A general linear model was used to investigate associations between Hpr levels, host polymorphisms, parasitological factors and the acute phase proteins, Hp, C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin. Levels of Hpr were associated with Hp genotype, decreased with age and were higher in females. Hpr concentration was strongly correlated with that of Hp, but not CRP

Eye movements and reading in glaucoma: observations on patients with advanced visual field loss

Purpose To investigate the relationship between reading speed and eye movements in patients with advanced glaucomatous visual field (VF) defects and age-similar visually healthy people. Methods Eighteen patients with advanced bilateral VF defects (mean age: 71, standard deviation [SD]: 7 years) and 39 controls (mean age: 67, SD: 8 years) had reading speed measured using short passages of text on a computer set-up incorporating eye tracking. Scanpaths were plotted and analysed from these experiments to derive measures of ‘perceptual span’ (total number of letters read per number of saccades) and ‘text saturation’ (the distance between the first and last fixation on lines of text). Another eye movement measure, termed ‘saccadic frequency’ (total number of saccades made to read a single word), was derived from a separate lexical decision task, where words were presented in isolation. Results Significant linear association was demonstrated between perceptual span and reading speed in patients (R2=0.42) and controls (R2=0.56). Linear association between saccadic frequency during the LDT and reading speed was also found in patients (R2=0.42), but not in controls (R2=0.02). Patients also exhibited greater average text saturation than controls (P=0.004). Conclusion Some, but not all, patients with advanced VF defects read slower than controls using short text passages. Differences in eye movement behaviour may partly account for this variability in patients. These patients were shown to saturate lines of text more during reading, which may explain previously-reported difficulties with sustained reading

The 1983 drought in the West Sahel: a case study

Some drought years over sub-Saharan west Africa (1972, 1977, 1984) have been previously related to a cross-equatorial Atlantic gradient pattern with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) south of 10°N and anomalously cold SSTs north of 10°N. This SST dipole-like pattern was not characteristic of 1983, the third driest summer of the twentieth century in the Sahel. This study presents evidence that the dry conditions that persisted over the west Sahel in 1983 were mainly forced by high Indian Ocean SSTs that were probably remanent from the strong 1982/1983 El Niño event. The synchronous Pacific impact of the 1982/1983 El Niño event on west African rainfall was however, quite weak. Prior studies have mainly suggested that the Indian Ocean SSTs impact the decadal-scale rainfall variability over the west Sahel. This study demonstrates that the Indian Ocean also significantly affects inter-annual rainfall variability over the west Sahel and that it was the main forcing for the drought over the west Sahel in 1983

Eye movements during visual search in patients with glaucoma

Background: Glaucoma has been shown to lead to disability in many daily tasks including visual search. This study aims to determine whether the saccadic eye movements of people with glaucoma differ from those of people with normal vision, and to investigate the association between eye movements and impaired visual search. Methods: Forty patients (mean age: 67 [SD: 9] years) with a range of glaucomatous visual field (VF) defects in both eyes (mean best eye mean deviation [MD]: –5.9 (SD: 5.4) dB) and 40 age-related people with normal vision (mean age: 66 [SD: 10] years) were timed as they searched for a series of target objects in computer displayed photographs of real world scenes. Eye movements were simultaneously recorded using an eye tracker. Average number of saccades per second, average saccade amplitude and average search duration across trials were recorded. These response variables were compared with measurements of VF and contrast sensitivity. Results: The average rate of saccades made by the patient group was significantly smaller than the number made by controls during the visual search task (P = 0.02; mean reduction of 5.6% (95% CI: 0.1 to 10.4%). There was no difference in average saccade amplitude between the patients and the controls (P = 0.09). Average number of saccades was weakly correlated with aspects of visual function, with patients with worse contrast sensitivity (PR logCS; Spearman’s rho: 0.42; P = 0.006) and more severe VF defects (best eye MD; Spearman’s rho: 0.34; P = 0.037) tending to make less eye movements during the task. Average detection time in the search task was associated with the average rate of saccades in the patient group (Spearman’s rho = −0.65; P < 0.001) but this was not apparent in the controls. Conclusions: The average rate of saccades made during visual search by this group of patients was fewer than those made by people with normal vision of a similar average age. There was wide variability in saccade rate in the patients but there was an association between an increase in this measure and better performance in the search task. Assessment of eye movements in individuals with glaucoma might provide insight into the functional deficits of the disease

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions

The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution

The dependence of the annual mean tropical precipitation on horizontal resolution is investigated in the atmospheric version of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model (HadGEM1). Reducing the grid spacing from about 350 km to 110 km improves the precipitation distribution in most of the tropics. In particular, characteristic dry biases over South and Southeast Asia including the Maritime Continent as well as wet biases over the western tropical oceans are reduced. The annual-mean precipitation bias is reduced by about one third over the Maritime Continent and the neighbouring ocean basins associated with it via the Walker circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that much of the improvement with resolution in the Maritime Continent region is due to the specification of better resolved surface boundary conditions (land fraction, soil and vegetation parameters) at the higher resolution. It is shown that in particular the formulation of the coastal tiling scheme may cause resolution sensitivity of the mean simulated climate. The improvement in the tropical mean precipitation in this region is not primarily associated with the better representation of orography at the higher resolution, nor with changes in the eddy transport of moisture. Sizeable sensitivity to changes in the surface fields may be one of the reasons for the large variation of the mean tropical precipitation distribution seen across climate models

Three monthly coral Sr/Ca records from the Chagos Archipelago covering the period of 1950-1995 A.D.: reproducibility and implications for quantitative reconstructions of sea surface temperature variations

In order to assess the fidelity of coral Sr/Ca for quantitative reconstructions of sea surface temperature variations, we have generated three monthly Sr/Ca time series from Porites corals from the lagoon of Peros Banhos (71°E, 5°S, Chagos Archipelago). We find that all three coral Sr/Ca time series are well correlated with instrumental records of sea surface temperature (SST) and air temperature. However, the intrinsic variance of the single-core Sr/Ca time series differs from core to core, limiting their use for quantitative estimates of past temperature variations. Averaging the single-core data improves the correlation with instrumental temperature (r > 0.7) and allows accurate estimates of interannual temperature variations (~0.35°C or better). All Sr/Ca time series indicate a shift towards warmer temperatures in the mid-1970s, which coincides with the most recent regime shift in the Pacific Ocean. However, the magnitude of the warming inferred from coral Sr/Ca differs from core to core and ranges from 0.26 to 0.75°C. The composite Sr/Ca record from Peros Banhos clearly captures the major climatic signals in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, i.e. the El Niño–southern oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation. Moreover, composite Sr/Ca is highly correlated with tropical mean temperatures (r = 0.7), suggesting that coral Sr/Ca time series from the tropical Indian Ocean will contribute to multi-proxy reconstructions of tropical mean temperatures

Recent advances in understanding hypertension development in sub-Saharan Africa

Consistent reports indicate that hypertension is a particularly common finding in black populations. Hypertension occurs at younger ages and is often more severe in terms of blood pressure levels and organ damage than in whites, resulting in a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease and mortality. This review provides an outline of recent advances in the pathophysiological understanding of blood pressure elevation and the consequences thereof in black populations in Africa. This is set against the backdrop of populations undergoing demanding and rapid demographic transition, where infection with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus predominates, and where under and over-nutrition coexist. Collectively, recent findings from Africa illustrate an increased lifetime risk to hypertension from foetal life onwards. From young ages black populations display early endothelial dysfunction, increased vascular tone and reactivity, microvascular structural adaptions, as well as increased aortic stiffness resulting in elevated central and brachial blood pressures during the day and night, when compared to whites. Together with knowledge on the contributions of sympathetic activation and abnormal renal sodium handling, these pathophysiological adaptations result in subclinical and clinical organ damage at younger ages. This overall enhanced understanding on the determinants of blood pressure elevation in blacks encourages (a) novel approaches to assess and manage hypertension in Africa better, (b) further scientific discovery to develop more effective prevention and treatment strategies, and (c) policymakers and health advocates to collectively contribute in creating health-promoting environments in Africa