Against the inappropriate use of numerical representation in social simulation

All tools have their advantages and disadvantages and for all tools there are times when they are appropriate and times when they are not. Formal tools are no exception to this and systems of numbers are examples of such formal tools. Thus there will be occasions where using a number to represent something is helpful and times where it is not. To use a tool well one needs to understand that tool and, in particular, when it may be inadvisable to use it and what its weaknesses are. However we are in an age that it obsessed by numbers. Governments spend large amounts of money training its citizens in how to use numbers and their declarative abstractions (graphs, algebra etc.) We are surrounded by numbers every day in: the news, whether forecasts, our speedometers and our bank balance. We are used to using numbers in loose, almost “conversational” ways – as with such concepts as the rate of inflation and our own “IQ”. Numbers have become so famliar that we no more worry about when and why we use them than we do about natural language. We have lost the warning bells in our head that remind us that we may be using numbers inappropriately. They have entered (and sometimes dominate) our language of thought. Computers have exasperbated this trend by making numbers very much easier to store/manipulate/communicate and more seductive by making possible attractive pictures and animations of their patterns. More subtley, when thought of as calculating machines that can play games with us and simulate the detail of physical systems, they suggest that everything comes down to numbers. For this reason it is second nature for us to use numbers in our social simulations and we frequently do so without considering the consequences of this choice. This paper is simply a reminder about numbers: a call to remember that they are just another (formal) tool; it recaps some of the conditions which indicate when a number is applicable and when it might be misleading; it looks at some of the dangers and pitfalls of using numbers; it considers some examples of the use of numbers; and it points out that we now have some viable alternatives to numbers that are not any less formal but which may be often preferable

Representation, Rightness, and the Fringe

So the central question here is phenomenological: What is the nature of the aesthetic zap? For it is this experience, or its promise, which gives art such a deep hold on human life. But the issue of representation, while secondary, is still pregnant with cognitive implications: Why is representation, of all the devices available to an artist, more likely to shift the odds in favour of eliciting and/or intensifying aesthetic experience? Assuming a Darwinian view of our species, it is likely that the answer to both questions will come from understanding how our capacity to enjoy art grows out of normal cognition

The Fringe: A Case Study in Explanatory Phenomenology

William James’ greatest achievement is, arguably, his analysis of the fringe — or, as he sometimes called it, transitive experience. In trying to understand this vague, elusive, often peripheral aspect of consciousness, James broke new ground. But in so doing he also began to lay down the first stratum of a radically new methodology, one that intersects first- and third-person findings in such a way that each is able to interrogate the other, and so further our understanding of both....\ud \ud But I think it is important to see that explanatory phenomenology can be completely scientific without necessarily having to (1) consider the neural substrate, (2) employ reductive arguments, or (3) operate at the third-person level. If I am right, explanatory phenomenology can be a remarkably plastic member of the set of first-person methodologies for the study of consciousness

How are physical and social spaces related? – cognitive agents as the necessary “glue”

There have been very few models which explicitly include actions and effects within a physical space as well as communication and action within a social space. This paper argues that such models will be necessary if we are to understand how and why human entities organise themselves in physical space. A consequence of such models will involve a move away from relatively simple individual-based simulations towards more complex agent-based simulations due to the necessary encapsulation of the agents who act in space and communicate with peers. Thus some sort of cognitive agency will be necessary to connect the communication with the action of the individuals. This parallels Carley’s call for social network models to be agentified (Carley). Thus this paper argues that such agency will be unavoidable in adequate models of the spatial distribution of human-related actors and, further, that the spaces within which action and communication occur will have to be, at least somewhat, distinct. Thus the burdon of proof is upon those modellers who omit such aspects. To establish the potential importance of the interplay between social and physical spaces, and to illustrate the approach I am suggesting, I exhibit a couple of agent-based simulations which involve both physical and social spaces. The first of these is an abstract model whose purpose is simply to show how the topology of the social space can have a direct influence upon spatial self-organisation, and the second is a more descriptive model which aims to show how a suitable agent-based model may inform observation of social phenomena by suggesting questions and issues that need to be investigated

Developing a participatory approach to seed production and varietal selection (OF0330)

Overall Aim To develop a robust system for identifying, testing, multiplying and marketing cereal varieties, lines, mixtures and populations best suited to organic production in different parts of the country. Objectives 1. Develop a participatory research and development methodology for UK organic farmers using variety trialling and the management of seed-borne disease as examples. 2. Collect information on the range of cereal varieties currently grown by organic farmers to help identify the major priorities and constraints among the varieties available. 3. Establish a pilot programme of cereal variety trials with organic farmers on organic farms using the methodology developed by Objective 1. 4. To obtain information on which seed-borne diseases, including ergot, may cause problems in the organic seed production chain of wheat, barley, oats and triticale, and to examine any relationship between organic husbandry conditions (seed rate, sowing date, rotation etc.) and incidence/severity of disease. 5. Determine whether cultivars with good potential for organic production are resistant to one or more of the seed-borne disease problems. 6. Working with farmers (Objective 1), review and identify a range of organically acceptable seed treatments and processes, considering both chemical and physical methods, and test these under organic conditions to determine efficacy. 7. Formulate a code of best practice for the production of certified organic seed, and for the processing of seed on organic farms. 8. To evaluate the participatory research and development approach throughout the entire research process and produce guidelines and materials for best practice. Data will be collected throughout the duration of the project. Objective 1. A literature review was undertaken and an agenda for future research set out. Questions to be addressed included: Have we identified the research that farmers and other stakeholders want? What roles do farmers and other stakeholders play? How do we carry out the testing, adaptation and development of options? How can the effective forms of participatory research (if there are any) be ‘mainstreamed’ into other agricultural research? Existing systems of farmer involvement in research were also examined through interviews with farmers, agri-businesses and scientists. It was found that almost all farmers were carrying out some kind of research on their farm. This may be using scientific methods or using a more holistic approach with multiple criteria. Farmers may set hypotheses explicitly before starting the experiment or they may use gut feelings and be experimenting without acknowledging it. They also often changed treatments during the experiment. It was concluded that the best results are more likely to come when topics are addressed by combining farmers’ own research with research on farms controlled and managed by scientists. From discussions with various farmer groups and the previous experience of Elm Farm Organic Research Centre researchers, it was decided that: the project should focus on winter wheat; and the basic experimental protocol must be simple, be able to be undertaken by the farmer with their own machinery and within the farmers’ time constraints. A protocol was established and reviewed each year at annual post harvest review meetings. Objective 2. Planting data was collected from the members of the Organic Arable Marketing Group in the first year of the project. Hereward and Claire were the most popular winter wheat varieties grown, and this was confirmed by a survey of the farmers involved in this project. A major concern of farmers was achieving milling quality specifications (especially protein concentration). Objective 3. Plots of three bread making winter wheat varieties (Hereward, Solstice and Xi19) and a mixture (1:1:1) of the varieties were grown at up to 19 UK farms in two seasons (2003/04 and 2004/05). Measurements were taken of growth habit, yield and grain quality. Grain yields in both seasons showed significant site by variety interactions, although the variation among sites was greater than among varieties in both instances. Wheat grown at Western sites was significantly shorter and higher-yielding than that grown at Eastern sites in 2003/04 but significantly taller in 2004/05. As with grain yield, greater variation among sites than varieties was found in the Hagberg Falling Number and protein concentration results in both seasons. The results from the two years of trials illustrate the variability of organic systems and the difficulty in selecting a single wheat variety suitable for organic farms. Garlic oil was used as a seed treatment for Hereward on two of the sites in the second year of trials. However, the treatment had no effect on establishment of the variety, and yields were variable. Benchmarking data was collected from 24 farms. Exsept appeared to be the highest yielding variety and yields varied with soil type (silts>clays>sands). More data would be needed to give an accurate picture of organic yields across the country. Objective 4. A total of 676 samples were tested between 2002 and 2005. Treatment thresholds for wheat seed have recently been extensively investigated and revised, producing a safe level below which untreated seed could be sown. Results showed that most samples had higher health status than the conventional treatment thresholds. However, there were occasional problems, most notably in the case of bunt on wheat, where very high levels of infection were seen, and the seed would have been unsuitable for further multiplication as seed, or for ware production. It was not possible to relate these occurrences consistently with any particular farm practice, with the possible exception of one site where minimum tillage was used, and the crop was always a second wheat. Ergot (Claviceps purpurea) was present at high levels (e.g. over 50 pieces per kg of seed) in several samples, but ergot infestation has also been increasing in frequency and severity in conventional production recently. Microdochium nivale sometimes reached high levels on wheat seed in seasons favourable to the disease, but similar levels were also seen in conventional samples received for testing at NIAB. Objective 5. Tests on appropriate varieties were carried out in 2 years. Of the wheat varieties: Hereward and Solstice appeared to show ‘resistance’ to bunt although the nature of the resistance is not known; Exsept, was consistently more resistant to Microdochium in the ear than other varieties; and Claire, Deben and Nijinsky appeared to be more resistant to loose smut than other varieties. There has been little effort to breed for seed borne disease resistance but these results indicate that it should be possible to introduce resistance, especially for diseases like loose smut. Objective 6. Seed treatment trials were carried out in 2004 and 2005 and comprised examples of biological, micronutrient and physical treatments. None of the treatments used in 2004 significantly improved establishment when wheat seed had a high level (30%) of Microdochium nivale seedling blight, and none significantly increased final yield. In 2005, one of the biological treatments tested (from Crompton Ltd) did significantly improve plant establishment, though effects on yield were non-significant. Both biological products (Cerall and the Crompton product) suppressed bunt in 2005, as did Radiate (ammonium and zinc ammonium complex), though the latter had no significant effect in 2004. The hot air treatment also reduced bunt in 2005, though the effect was less marked in 2004. Seed cleaning was also investigated as a means of improving establishment in Microdochium infected wheat. Though establishment counts and early spring counts were improved slightly in the cleaned seed compared to uncleaned, effects were not significant, and final yields were not improved. Incidence of disease in the cleaned versus uncleaned seed (% infection on agar plates) was similar, indicating that the process, although removing light and shrivelled seed, did not selectively remove infected seed. Objective 7. The code of best practice for seed production concentrated on bunt since this was the most prevalent problem found in this project. Guidelines included: always test untreated ‘mother’ seed; seed destined for further multiplication should have as close to 0 bunt spores/seed as possible; seed for crop production should have no more than 1 bunt spore/seed; grow farm-saved seed as first wheat; and sow wheat early to minimize any chances of infection. Objective 8. The participatory process was assessed three times using interviews with farmers and researchers involved in the project. It was evident that farmer participatory research was more complicated, time-consuming and expensive than expected. Key issues identified included: • Acknowledging and addressing the training needs of farmers and researchers at the outset of a project • Building a team of people (farmers and researchers) who understand each others’ background, and are able to work together towards an agreed set of goals. • Appreciating the commitment farmers must make on top of their existing workloads to engage in this sort of activity, and doing what is possible to facilitate this. • Identifying appropriate people to act as boundary spanners and draw all stakeholders together in dialogue. • Within this framework, identifying research goals that can be realistically met by all concerned. • A short leaflet and a longer document were produced for farmers/researchers setting out what’s involved in participatory research and the pros and cons of participating. Conclusions. The experimental aspect of this project has highlighted the large variation among organic systems and the problems in recommending a single variety to organic farmers. However, the work has shown that there are few problems in the health of the seed used in organic systems. This is particularly important since none of the potential organic seed treatments tested had a positive effect on yield. The main aspect of this work has been a learning experience in aspects of farmer participatory research in a UK context. Differing views have meant that natural and social scientists have written different parts of the discussion. Researchers have experienced difficulties in engaging farmers and managing their expectations, the challenges of working in multidisciplinary teams spread over different institutions and the extra time needed to build and maintain relationships. Farmer participatory research does have an important role to play in producing both relevant and rigorous results for farmers and funders. It has to be managed appropriately, and has to be recognised that processes are very different to a typical research project

Volition and Property Dualism

My overall aim here is to intersect two issues central to Max Velmans’ (2002) wide-ranging paper. The first concerns one of the most vexing problems in consciousness research — how best to approach the terms ‘mental’ and ‘physical’. The second looks at the phenomenology of volition, and the degree to which information presumably necessary for making voluntary conscious decisions is, or is not, present in consciousness

Engineering Coexistence

A response to the issues raised by the English GM coexistence consultation

A participatory approach to variety trials for organic systems

A participatory research methodology was used to compare the performance of UK wheat varieties under organic conditions. Plots of three breadmaking winter wheat varieties (Hereward, Solstice and Xi19) and a mixture (1:1:1) of the varieties were grown at 19 UK farms in two seasons (2003/04 and 2004/05). Meas-urements were taken of growth habit, yield and grain quality. Grain yields in both seasons showed significant site by variety interactions, although the variation among sites was greater than among varieties in both instances. Wheat grown at Western sites was significantly shorter and higher-yielding than that grown at Eastern sites in 2003/04 but significantly taller in 2004/05. As with grain yield, greater variation among site than variety was found in the Hagberg Falling Number and protein concentra-tion results in both seasons. The results from the two years of trials illustrate the variability of organic systems and the difficulty in selecting a single variety suitable for organic farms

Improving Dental Experiences by Using Virtual Reality Distraction: A Simulation Study

Dental anxiety creates significant problems for both patients and the dental profession. Some distraction interventions are already used by healthcare professionals to help patients cope with unpleasant procedures. The present study is novel because it a) builds on evidence that natural scenery is beneficial for patients, and b) uses a Virtual Reality (VR) representation of nature to distract participants. Extending previous work that has investigated pain and anxiety during treatment, c) we also consider the longer term effects in terms of more positive memories of the treatment, building on a cognitive theory of memory (Elaborated Intrusions). Participants (n = 69) took part in a simulated dental experience and were randomly assigned to one of three VR conditions (active vs. passive vs. control). In addition, participants were distinguished into high and low dentally anxious according to a median split resulting in a 362 between-subjects design. VR distraction in a simulated dental context affected memories a week later. The VR distraction had effects not only on concurrent experiences, such as perceived control, but longitudinally upon the vividness of memories after the dental experience had ended. Participants with higher dental anxiety (for whom the dental procedures were presumably more aversive) showed a greater reduction in memory vividness than lower dental-anxiety participants. This study thus suggests that VR distractions can be considered as a relevant intervention for cycles of care in which people’s previous experiences affect their behaviour for future events