Rapid interhemispheric climate links via the Australasian monsoon during the last deglaciation

Recent studies have proposed that millennial-scale reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere circulation drives increased upwelling in the Southern Ocean, leading to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ice age terminations. Southward migration of the global monsoon is thought to link the hemispheres during deglaciation, but vital evidence from the southern sector of the vast Australasian monsoon system is yet to emerge. Here we present a 230thorium-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope record of millennial-scale changes in Australian–Indonesian monsoon rainfall over the last 31,000 years. The record shows that abrupt southward shifts of the Australian–Indonesian monsoon were synchronous with North Atlantic cold intervals 17,600–11,500 years ago. The most prominent southward shift occurred in lock-step with Heinrich Stadial 1 (17,600–14,600 years ago), and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our findings show that millennial-scale climate change was transmitted rapidly across Australasia and lend support to the idea that the 3,000-year-long Heinrich 1 interval could have been critical in driving the last deglaciation

Transient anhedonia phenotype and altered circadian timing of behaviour during night-time dim light exposure in Per3(-/-) mice, but not wildtype mice.

Industrialisation greatly increased human night-time exposure to artificial light, which in animal models is a known cause of depressive phenotypes. Whilst many of these phenotypes are 'direct' effects of light on affect, an 'indirect' pathway via altered sleep-wake timing has been suggested. We have previously shown that the Period3 gene, which forms part of the biological clock, is associated with altered sleep-wake patterns in response to light. Here, we show that both wild-type and Per3(-/-) mice showed elevated levels of circulating corticosterone and increased hippocampal Bdnf expression after 3 weeks of exposure to dim light at night, but only mice deficient for the PERIOD3 protein (Per3(-/-)) exhibited a transient anhedonia-like phenotype, observed as reduced sucrose preference, in weeks 2-3 of dim light at night, whereas WT mice did not. Per3(-/-) mice also exhibited a significantly smaller delay in behavioural timing than WT mice during weeks 1, 2 and 4 of dim light at night exposure. When treated with imipramine, neither Per3(-/-) nor WT mice exhibited an anhedonia-like phenotype, and neither genotypes exhibited a delay in behavioural timing in responses to dLAN. While the association between both Per3(-/-) phenotypes remains unclear, both are alleviated by imipramine treatment during dim night-time light

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene

A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900

A new dataset of integrated and homogenized monthly surface air temperature over global land for the period since 1900 [China Meteorological Administration global Land Surface Air Temperature (CMA-LSAT)] is developed. In total, 14 sources have been collected and integrated into the newly developed dataset, including three global (CRUTEM4, GHCN, and BEST), three regional and eight national sources. Duplicate stations are identified, and those with the higher priority are chosen or spliced. Then, a consistency test and a climate outlier test are conducted to ensure that each station series is quality controlled. Next, two steps are adopted to assure the homogeneity of the station series: (1) homogenized station series in existing national datasets (by National Meteorological Services) are directly integrated into the dataset without any changes (50% of all stations), and (2) the inhomogeneities are detected and adjusted for in the remaining data series using a penalized maximal t test (50% of all stations). Based on the dataset, we re-assess the temperature changes in global and regional areas compared with GHCN-V3 and CRUTEM4, as well as the temperature changes during the three periods of 1900–2014, 1979–2014 and 1998–2014. The best estimates of warming trends and there 95% confidence ranges for 1900–2014 are approximately 0.102 ± 0.006 °C/decade for the whole year, and 0.104 ± 0.009, 0.112 ± 0.007, 0.090 ± 0.006, and 0.092 ± 0.007 °C/decade for the DJF (December, January, February), MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, respectively. MAM saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900–2014 and 1979–2014. For an even shorter and more recent period (1998–2014), MAM, JJA and SON show similar warming trends, while DJF shows opposite trends. The results show that the ability of CMA-LAST for describing the global temperature changes is similar with other existing products, while there are some differences when describing regional temperature changes

Climatic regions as an indicator of forest coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Coarse and fine woody debris are substantial forest ecosystem carbon stocks; however, there is a lack of understanding how these detrital carbon stocks vary across forested landscapes. Because forest woody detritus production and decay rates may partially depend on climatic conditions, the accumulation of coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in forests may be correlated with climate. This study used a nationwide inventory of coarse and fine woody debris in the United States to examine how these carbon stocks vary by climatic regions and variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean coarse and fine woody debris forest carbon stocks vary by Köppen's climatic regions across the United States. The highest carbon stocks were found in regions with cool summers while the lowest carbon stocks were found in arid desert/steppes or temperate humid regions. Coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks were found to be positively correlated with available moisture and negatively correlated with maximum temperature.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It was concluded with only medium confidence that coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks may be at risk of becoming net emitter of carbon under a global climate warming scenario as increases in coarse or fine woody debris production (sinks) may be more than offset by increases in forest woody detritus decay rates (emission). Given the preliminary results of this study and the rather tenuous status of coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks as either a source or sink of CO₂, further research is suggested in the areas of forest detritus decay and production.</p

Analytical model for the calculation of lateral velocity distributions in potential cross-sections

[EN] The hydraulic modeling of water depth and flow velocities in open channel flows that were fitted by power-law cross-section stand out for their versatility, allowing their use in numerous practical applications, both in natural and artificial channels. The determination of the hydraulic variables of depth and average velocity has been widely studied in potential cross-sections; however, the variation seen in these variables along the cross-section was not found in the literature. Knowledge of this variation allows the development of studies (e.g. to know the approximate damage in different areas of the cross-section, to analyse sediment transport, or other applications in river hydraulics). This paper presents a methodology which allows calculation of the hydraulic variables in any area of a power-law cross-section. The methodology is applied to symmetrical cross-sections, comparing its generated results with the obtained values by different computational hydraulic codes, which are thoroughly accepted by scientific community, such as CES, HEC-RAS and IBER. The obtained predictions of hydraulic parameters (using the explicit formulation described in this research) present very low errors when compared with results of other models, with great computational cost. These errors reach a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 and 0.05 in the determination of velocities' lateral distribution and the ratio between velocity and average velocity. These values indicate a very successful validation for the analysed symmetrical sections.[ES] La modelización hidráulica de calados y velocidades de flujo, en cauces con secciones que admiten una representación de tipo potencial, se destaca por su versatilidad, permitiendo su utilización en numerosas aplicaciones prácticas tanto en canales naturales como artificiales. El cálculo de las variables hidráulicas (calado y velocidad media) ha sido ampliamente estudiado para este tipo de secciones. Sin embargo, en la literatura técnica no se han encontrado estudios que muestren la variación de estas magnitudes a lo largo de la sección transversal. El conocimiento de esta variación permite desarrollar estudios (ejemplo: conocer de manera aproximada los daños en diferentes zonas de la sección, analizar el transporte de sedimentos, estudiar los procesos de erosión u otras aplicaciones en hidráulica fluvial). Presentamos una metodología que permite el cálculo de las variables hidráulicas en cualquier zona de una sección tipo potencial. La metodología es aplicada a secciones simétricas, comparando los resultados generados con los obtenidos por diferentes códigos hidráulicos computacionales ampliamente aceptados por la comunidad científica (p-e- CES, HECRAS e IBER). Las predicciones de los parámetros hidráulicos obtenidas (usando la formulación explícita descrita en este artículo) presentan errores muy bajos, en comparación con otros modelos con mayor costo computacional. Estos errores alcanzan un valor promedio para la raíz del error cuadrático medio (RMSE) en el cálculo de la distribución lateral de velocidades de 0.13 y de 0.05, en el cálculo de la relación de velocidades respecto a la velocidad media. Estos valores indican una validación muy satisfactoria para las secciones simétricas analizadas.Sánchez-Romero, F.; Pérez-Sánchez, M.; López Jiménez, PA. (2018). Modelo analítico para el cálculo de distribuciones de velocidad laterales en secciones tipo potencial-ley. RIBAGUA - Revista Iberoamericana del Agua. 5(1):29-47. doi:10.1080/23863781.2018.1442189S29475

Non-linear Autoregressive Neural Networks to Forecast Short-Term Solar Radiation for Photovoltaic Energy Predictions

Nowadays, green energy is considered as a viable solution to hinder CO2 emissions and greenhouse effects. Indeed, it is expected that Renewable Energy Sources (RES) will cover 40% of the total energy request by 2040. This will move forward decentralized and cooperative power distribution systems also called smart grids. Among RES, solar energy will play a crucial role. However, reliable models and tools are needed to forecast and estimate with a good accuracy the renewable energy production in short-term time periods. These tools will unlock new services for smart grid management. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for implementing two different non-linear autoregressive neural networks to forecast Global Horizontal Solar Irradiance (GHI) in short-term time periods (i.e. from future 15 to 120min). Both neural networks have been implemented, trained and validated exploiting a dataset consisting of four years of solar radiation values collected by a real weather station. We also present the experimental results discussing and comparing the accuracy of both neural networks. Then, the resulting GHI forecast is given as input to a Photovoltaic simulator to predict energy production in short-term time periods. Finally, we present the results of this Photovoltaic energy estimation discussing also their accuracy

Time constraints do not limit group size in arboreal guenons but do explain community size and distribution patterns

To understand how species will respond to environmental changes, it is important to know how those changes will affect the ecological stress that animals experience. Time constraints can be used as indicators of ecological stress. Here we test whether time constraints can help us understand group sizes, distribution patterns and community sizes of forest guenons (Cercopithecus/Allochrocebus). Forest guenons typically live in small to medium sized one-male multi-female groups and often live in communities with multiple forest guenon species. We developed a time-budget model using published data on time budgets, diets, body sizes, climate, and group sizes to predict maximum ecologically tolerable group and community sizes of forest guenons across 202 sub-Saharan African locations. The model correctly predicted presence/absence at 83% of these locations. Feeding-foraging time (an indicator of competition) limited group sizes, while resting and moving time constraints shaped guenon biogeography. Predicted group sizes were greater than observed group sizes but comparable to community sizes, suggesting community sizes are set by competition among guenon individuals irrespective of species. We conclude that time constraints and intra-specific competition are unlikely to be the main determinants of relatively small group sizes in forest guenons. Body mass was negatively correlated with moving time, which may give larger bodied species an advantage over smaller bodied species under future conditions when greater fragmentation of forests is likely to lead to increased moving time. Resting time heavily depended on leaf consumption and is likely to increase under future climatic conditions when leaf quality is expected to decrease.© 2018 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0