Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

R squared effect-size measures and overlap between direct and indirect effect in mediation analysis

In a recent article in this journal (Fairchild, MacKinnon, Taborga & Taylor, 2009), a method was described for computing the variance accounted for by the direct effect and the indirect effect in mediation analysis. However, application of this method leads to counterintuitive results, most notably that in some situations in which the direct effect is much stronger than the indirect effect, the latter appears to explain much more variance than the former. The explanation for this is that the Fairchild et al. method handles the strong interdependence of the direct and indirect effect in a way that assigns all overlap variance to the indirect effect. Two approaches for handling this overlap are discussed, but none of them is without disadvantages

HOW DO IS PROGRAMS COMPARE WITH ABET ACCREDITED PROGRAMS?

ABSTRACT As of Februar

Sonification and Music as Support to the Communication of Alcohol-Related Health Risks to Young People : Study design and results

Excessive consumption of alcohol has been recognised as a significant risk factor impacting the health of young people. Effective communication of such risk is considered to be one key step to improve behaviour. We evaluated an innovative multimedia intervention that utilised audio (sonification—using sound to display data—and music) and interactivity to support the visual communication of alcohol health risk data. A 3-arm pilot experiment was undertaken. The trial measures included health knowledge, alcohol risk perception and user experience of the intervention. Ninety-six subjects participated in the experiment. At 1 month follow-up, alcohol knowledge and alcohol risk perception improved significantly in the whole sample. However, there was no difference between the intervention groups that experienced (1) visual presentation with interactivity (VI-Exp group) and, (2) visual presentation with audio (sonification and music) and interactivity (VAI-Exp group), when compared to the control group which experienced a (3) visual only presentation (V-Cont group). Participants reported enjoying the presentations and found them educational. The majority of participants indicated that the audio, music and sonification helped to convey the information well, and, although a larger sample size is needed to fully establish the effectiveness of the different interventions, this study provides a useful model for future similar studies

A Customer Perspective on Product Eliminations: How the Removal of Products Affects Customers and Business Relationships

Regardless of the apparent need for product eliminations, many managers hesitate to act as they fear deleterious effects on customer satisfaction and loyalty. Other managers do carry out product eliminations, but often fail to consider the consequences for customers and business relationships. Given the relevance and problems of product eliminations, research on this topic in general and on the consequences for customers and business relationships in particular is surprisingly scarce. Therefore, this empirical study explores how and to what extent the elimination of a product negatively affects customers and business relationships. Results indicate that eliminating a product may result in severe economic and psychological costs to customers, thereby seriously decreasing customer satisfaction and loyalty. This paper also shows that these costs are not exogenous in nature. Instead, depending on the characteristics of the eliminated product these costs are found to be more or less strongly driven by a company’s behavior when implementing the elimination at the customer interface

Genome wide linkage study, using a 250K SNP map, of Plasmodium falciparum infection and mild malaria attack in a Senegalese population

Multiple factors are involved in the variability of host's response to P. falciparum infection, like the intensity and seasonality of malaria transmission, the virulence of parasite and host characteristics like age or genetic make-up. Although admitted nowadays, the involvement of host genetic factors remains unclear. Discordant results exist, even concerning the best-known malaria resistance genes that determine the structure or function of red blood cells. Here we report on a genomewide linkage and association study for P. falciparum infection intensity and mild malaria attack among a Senegalese population of children and young adults from 2 to 18 years old. A high density single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) genome scan (Affimetrix GeneChip Human Mapping 250K-nsp) was performed for 626 individuals: i.e. 249 parents and 377 children out of the 504 ones included in the follow-up. The population belongs to a unique ethnic group and was closely followed-up during 3 years. Genome-wide linkage analyses were performed on four clinical and parasitological phenotypes and association analyses using the family based association tests (FBAT) method were carried out in regions previously linked to malaria phenotypes in literature and in the regions for which we identified a linkage peak. Analyses revealed three strongly suggestive evidences for linkage: between mild malaria attack and both the 6p25.1 and the 12q22 regions (empirical p-value = 5 x 10(-5) and 96 x 10(-5) respectively), and between the 20p11q11 region and the prevalence of parasite density in asymptomatic children (empirical p-value = 1.5 x 10(-4)). Family based association analysis pointed out one significant association between the intensity of plasmodial infection and a polymorphism located in ARHGAP26 gene in the 5q31-q33 region (p-value = 3.7 x 10(-5)). This study identified three candidate regions, two of them containing genes that could point out new pathways implicated in the response to malaria infection. Furthermore, we detected one gene associated with malaria infection in the 5q31-q33 region

Expression and function of G-protein-coupled receptorsin the male reproductive tract

This review focuses on the expression and function of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (mAChRs), α1-adrenoceptors and relaxin receptors in the male reproductive tract. The localization and differential expression of mAChR and α1-adrenoceptor subtypes in specific compartments of the efferent ductules, epididymis, vas deferens, seminal vesicle and prostate of various species indicate a role for these receptors in the modulation of luminal fluid composition and smooth muscle contraction, including effects on male fertility. Furthermore, the activation of mAChRs induces transactivation of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and the Sertoli cell proliferation. The relaxin receptors are present in the testis, RXFP1 in elongated spermatids and Sertoli cells from rat, and RXFP2 in Leydig and germ cells from rat and human, suggesting a role for these receptors in the spermatogenic process. The localization of both receptors in the apical portion of epithelial cells and smooth muscle layers of the vas deferens suggests an involvement of these receptors in the contraction and regulation of secretion.Esta revisão enfatiza a expressão e a função dos receptores muscarínicos, adrenoceptores α1 e receptores para relaxina no sistema reprodutor masculino. A expressão dos receptores muscarínicos e adrenoceptores α1 em compartimentos específicos de dúctulos eferentes, epidídimo, ductos deferentes, vesícula seminal e próstata de várias espécies indica o envolvimento destes receptores na modulação da composição do fluido luminal e na contração do músculo liso, incluindo efeitos na fertilidade masculina. Além disso, a ativação dos receptores muscarínicos leva à transativação do receptor para o fator crescimento epidermal e proliferação das células de Sertoli. Os receptores para relaxina estão presentes no testículo, RXFP1 nas espermátides alongadas e células de Sertoli de rato e RXFP2 nas células de Leydig e germinativas de ratos e humano, sugerindo o envolvimento destes receptores no processo espermatogênico. A localização de ambos os receptores na porção apical das células epiteliais e no músculo liso dos ductos deferentes de rato sugere um papel na contração e na regulação da secreção.Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) Escola Paulista de Medicina Departamento de FarmacologiaUNIFESP, EPM, Depto. de FarmacologiaSciEL

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability