Dynamic Control of Explore/Exploit Trade-Off In Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization offers the possibility of optimizing black-box operations not accessible through traditional techniques. The success of Bayesian optimization methods such as Expected Improvement (EI) are significantly affected by the degree of trade-off between exploration and exploitation. Too much exploration can lead to inefficient optimization protocols, whilst too much exploitation leaves the protocol open to strong initial biases, and a high chance of getting stuck in a local minimum. Typically, a constant margin is used to control this trade-off, which results in yet another hyper-parameter to be optimized. We propose contextual improvement as a simple, yet effective heuristic to counter this - achieving a one-shot optimization strategy. Our proposed heuristic can be swiftly calculated and improves both the speed and robustness of discovery of optimal solutions. We demonstrate its effectiveness on both synthetic and real world problems and explore the unaccounted for uncertainty in the pre-determination of search hyperparameters controlling explore-exploit trade-off.Comment: Accepted for publication in the proceedings of 2018 Computing Conferenc

Canagliflozin and heart failure in Type 2 diabetes mellitus: results from the CANVAS Program (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study)

BACKGROUND : Canagliflozin is a sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor that reduces the risk of cardiovascular events. We report the effects on heart failure and cardiovascular death overall, in those with and without a baseline history of heart failure, and in other participant subgroups. METHODS : The CANVAS Program (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) enrolled 10 142 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk. Participants were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo and followed for a mean of 188 weeks. The primary end point for these analyses was adjudicated cardiovascular death or hospitalized heart failure. RESULTS : Participants with a history of heart failure at baseline (14.4%) were more frequently women, white, and hypertensive and had a history of prior cardiovascular disease (all P0.130), except for a possibly reduced absolute rate of events attributable to osmotic diuresis among those with a prior history of heart failure (P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS : In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease, canagliflozin reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalized heart failure across a broad range of different patient subgroups. Benefits may be greater in those with a history of heart failure at baseline. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION : URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT01032629 and NCT01989754

Canagliflozin for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular events: results from the CANVAS Program (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study)

BACKGROUND : Canagliflozin is a sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor that significantly reduces the composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and elevated cardiovascular risk. The comparative effects among participants with and without a history of cardiovascular disease (secondary versus primary prevention) were prespecified for evaluation. METHODS : The CANVAS Program (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) randomly assigned 10 142 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus to canagliflozin or placebo. The primary prevention cohort comprised individuals ≥50 years of age with ≥2 risk factors for cardiovascular events but with no prior cardiovascular event, and the secondary prevention cohort comprised individuals ≥30 years of age with a prior cardiovascular event. The primary end point was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Secondary outcomes included heart failure hospitalization and a renal composite (40% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate, renal replacement therapy, or renal death). RESULTS : Primary prevention participants (N=3486; 34%) were younger (63 versus 64 years of age), were more often female (45% versus 31%), and had a longer duration of diabetes mellitus (14 versus 13 years) compared with secondary prevention participants (N=6656; 66%). The primary end point event rate was higher in the secondary prevention group compared with the primary prevention group (36.9 versus 15.7/1000 patient-years, P<0.001). In the total cohort, the primary end point was reduced with canagliflozin compared with placebo (26.9 versus 31.5/1000 patient-years; hazard ratio [HR], 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.97; P<0.001 for noninferiority, P=0.02 for superiority) with no statistical evidence of heterogeneity (interaction P value=0.18) between the primary (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.74-1.30) and secondary prevention (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72-0.95) cohorts. Renal outcomes (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44-0.79 versus HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.39-1.02; interaction P value=0.73) and heart failure hospitalization (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.51-0.90 versus HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.35-1.15; interaction P value=0.91) were similarly reduced in the secondary and primary prevention cohorts, respectively. Lower extremity amputations were similarly increased in the secondary and primary prevention cohorts (HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.43-3.00 versus HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 0.70-3.29; interaction P value=0.63). CONCLUSIONS : Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and prior cardiovascular events had higher rates of cardiovascular outcomes compared with the primary prevention patients. Canagliflozin reduced cardiovascular and renal outcomes with no statistical evidence of heterogeneity of the treatment effect across the primary and secondary prevention groups. Additional studies will provide further insights into the effects of canagliflozin in these patient populations. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION : URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT01032629 and NCT01989754

Patients\u27 Perception of the Use of Motivational Interviewing for Childhood Obesity Treatment: A Qualitative Study

The purpose of this qualitative interpretive descriptive study was to better understand children’s perceptions of the use of motivational interviewing (MI) as a communication style for childhood obesity treatment. Childhood obesity in the United States has reached epidemic proportions and much research effort has been dedicated to reversing this trend. One approach that has demonstrated positive outcomes in the clinical setting is MI. Leading organizations in pediatric healthcare now recommend MI as a communication style to be used for childhood obesity-related behavior change. Although empiric studies have demonstrated improvement in outcomes when this communication style is used with patients and families, no study to date had looked at MI from the perspective of the child. Thorne’s (2008) framework for interpretive descriptive research was used for this study. Individual interviews with children ages 7 through 13 were conducted in an outpatient weight management clinic that utilizes MI as the primary communication style for facilitating behavior change. Qualitative data analysis was conducted utilizing Thorne’s recommendations for interpretive descriptive research. Five themes emerged from the data: 1) Empowerment, 2) Freedom to be Me, 3) Educating without “Educating”, 4) Unconditional Support, and 5) Blossoming. A conceptual model was developed from the research findings to help clinicians working with children in similar contexts glean a deeper understanding of the use of MI with children. Future research endeavors should focus on the implementation of this model in clinical practice to strengthen the conceptual links and determine applicability to practice

Track and Field’s Influence on Race, Gender, and Ethnicity in the 1930s, Including the 1936 Olympic Games.

Neal Cranston HST 499 Senior Seminar AES Abstract Track and field in the 1930s provided a unique opportunity for athletes of all races, gender, and ethnicities to come together and compete on an equal playing field. This helped bridge the tension and divide that existed within segregated America but also showed the power that athletics has in highlighting common human characteristics. The evidence that will primarily illustrate this comes from a number of primary sources including six oral histories conducted by the United States Holocaust Museum as well as The 1984 Los Angeles Olympics Archives. These interviews give a glimpse into what the 1936 Olympic experience was like for many of the athletes that did not receive the same level of recognition as their teammate Jesse Owens. The Pan American Games which took place in Dallas in 1937 highlighted some of the harsh realities of racism in the American South despite the meet promoters intentions of holding a “harmonious” track meet not centered around race.[1] Overall these sources will contribute to the field by highlighting track and field’s involvement in healing social divides far ahead of its time. [1]Dyreson, Mark. “The Original Pan-American Games? The 1937 Dallas Pan-American Olympics.” International Journal of the History of Sport 33, no. 1/2 (January 2016): 6–28

Search For Heavy Pointlike Dirac Monopoles

We have searched for central production of a pair of photons with high transverse energies in $p\bar p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.8$ TeV using $70 pb^{-1}$ of data collected with the D\O detector at the Fermilab Tevatron in 1994--1996. If they exist, virtual heavy pointlike Dirac monopoles could rescatter pairs of nearly real photons into this final state via a box diagram. We observe no excess of events above background, and set lower 95% C.L. limits of $610, 870, or 1580 GeV/c^2$ on the mass of a spin 0, 1/2, or 1 Dirac monopole.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal

Search for High Mass Photon Pairs in p-pbar --> gamma-gamma-jet-jet Events at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV

A search has been carried out for events in the channel p-barp --> gamma gamma jet jet. Such a signature can characterize the production of a non-standard Higgs boson together with a W or Z boson. We refer to this non-standard Higgs, having standard model couplings to vector bosons but no coupling to fermions, as a "bosonic Higgs." With the requirement of two high transverse energy photons and two jets, the diphoton mass (m(gamma gamma)) distribution is consistent with expected background. A 90(95)% C.L. upper limit on the cross section as a function of mass is calculated, ranging from 0.60(0.80) pb for m(gamma gamma) = 65 GeV/c^2 to 0.26(0.34) pb for m(gamma gamma) = 150 GeV/c^2, corresponding to a 95% C.L. lower limit on the mass of a bosonic Higgs of 78.5 GeV/c^2.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures. Replacement has new H->gamma gamma branching ratios and corresponding new mass limit

Measurement of the B+ and B-0 lifetimes and search for CP(T) violation using reconstructed secondary vertices

The lifetimes of the B+ and B-0 mesons, and their ratio, have been measured in the OPAL experiment using 2.4 million hadronic Z(0) decays recorded at LEP. Z(0) --> b (b) over bar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices and high momentum electrons and muons. The lifetimes were then measured using well-reconstructed charged and neutral secondary vertices selected in this tagged data sample. The results aretau(B+) = 1.643 +/- 0.037 +/- 0.025 pstau(Bo) = 1.523 +/- 0.057 +/- 0.053 pstau(B+)/tau(Bo) = 1.079 +/- 0.064 +/- 0.041,where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic.A larger data sample of 3.1 million hadronic Z(o) decays has been used to search for CP and CPT violating effects by comparison of inclusive b and (b) over bar hadron decays, No evidence fur such effects is seen. The CP violation parameter Re(epsilon(B)) is measured to be Re(epsilon(B)) = 0.001 +/- 0.014 +/- 0.003and the fractional difference between b and (b) over bar hadron lifetimes is measured to(Delta tau/tau)(b) = tau(b hadron) - tau((b) over bar hadron)/tau(average) = -0.001 +/- 0.012 +/- 0.008