Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data

Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species’ ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1–3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10–12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial autocorrelation in an SDM context and, by taking account of random effects, produce outputs that can better elucidate the role of covariates in predicting species occurrence. Given that it is often unclear what the drivers are behind data clumping in an empirical occurrence dataset, or indeed how geographically restricted these data are, spatially-explicit Bayesian SDMs may be the better choice when modelling the spatial distribution of target species

Modulation of mitochondrial activity in HaCaT keratinocytes by the cell penetrating peptide Z-Gly-RGD(DPhe)-mitoparan.

OBJECTIVE: Biologically active cell penetrating peptides (CPPs) are an emerging class of therapeutic agent. The wasp venom peptide mastoparan is an established CPP that modulates mitochondrial activity and triggers caspase-dependent apoptosis in cancer cells, as does the mastoparan analogue mitoparan (mitP). Mitochondrial depolarisation and activation of the caspase cascade also underpins the action of dithranol, a topical agent for treatment of psoriasis. The effects of a potent mitP analogue on mitochondrial activity were therefore examined to assess its potential as a novel approach for targeting mitochondria for the treatment of psoriasis. RESULTS: In HaCaT keratinocytes treated with the mitP analogue Z-Gly-RGD(DPhe)-mitP for 24 h, a dose-dependent loss of mitochondrial activity was observed using the methyl-thiazolyl-tetrazolium (MTT) assay. At 10 μmol L-1, MTT activity was less than 30% that observed in untreated cells. Staining with the cationic dye JC-1 suggested that Z-Gly-RGD(DPhe)-mitP also dissipated the mitochondrial membrane potential, with a threefold increase in mitochondrial depolarisation levels. However, caspase activity appeared to be reduced by 24 h exposure to Z-Gly-RGD(DPhe)-mitP treatment. Furthermore, Z-Gly-RGD(DPhe)-mitP treatment had little effect on overall cell viability. Our findings suggest Z-Gly-RGD(DPhe)-mitP promotes the loss of mitochondrial activity but does not appear to evoke apoptosis in HaCaT keratinocytes

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predicitve models of Rift Valley Fever disease across Africa

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’

Removal processes for tributyltin during municipal wastewater treatment

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2013 Springer.The fate and behaviour of tributyltin (TBT) at two wastewater treatment works was examined. Both sites had two inlet streams, and each utilised high rate biological filters (biofilters) on one the streams, before treatment of the combined flows on trickling filters, with one having additional tertiary processes, installed to remove ammonia and solids. The study was designed to determine if these processes enhanced the removal of TBT. Degradation of TBT was observed in one of the biofilters, possibly as a result of temperature and hydraulic loading. At the treatment works with tertiary processes, the mass flux showed the overall removal of TBT was 68 %, predominantly due to removal with solids in the primary settlement processes. However, overall removal of 95 % was observed in the conventional trickling filter works with 94 % of this due to biodegradation in the trickling filter. The two works both removed TBT, but at different treatment stages and by different processes. Differences in the form (solubility) of TBT in the influent may have attributed to this, although further understanding of factors controlling degradation would allow for a more complete assessment of the potential of biological processes to remove hazardous compounds from wastewaters.United Utilities PL

Functionally distinct contributions of the anterior and posterior putamen during sublexical and lexical reading.

Previous studies have investigated orthographic-to-phonological mapping during reading by comparing brain activation for (1) reading words to object naming, or (2) reading pseudowords (e.g., "phume") to words (e.g., "plume"). Here we combined both approaches to provide new insights into the underlying neural mechanisms. In fMRI data from 25 healthy adult readers, we first identified activation that was greater for reading words and pseudowords relative to picture and color naming. The most significant effect was observed in the left putamen, extending to both anterior and posterior borders. Second, consistent with previous studies, we show that both the anterior and posterior putamen are involved in articulating speech with greater activation during our overt speech production tasks (reading, repetition, object naming, and color naming) than silent one-back-matching on the same stimuli. Third, we compared putamen activation for words versus pseudowords during overt reading and auditory repetition. This revealed that the anterior putamen was most activated by reading pseudowords, whereas the posterior putamen was most activated by words irrespective of whether the task was reading words or auditory word repetition. The pseudoword effect in the anterior putamen is consistent with prior studies that associated this region with the initiation of novel sequences of movements. In contrast, the heightened word response in the posterior putamen is consistent with other studies that associated this region with "memory guided movement." Our results illustrate how the functional dissociation between the anterior and posterior putamen supports sublexical and lexical processing during reading

Investigating hyper-vigilance for social threat of lonely children

The hypothesis that lonely children show hypervigilance for social threat was examined in a series of three studies that employed different methods including advanced eye-tracking technology. Hypervigilance for social threat was operationalized as hostility to ambiguously motivated social exclusion in a variation of the hostile attribution paradigm (Study 1), scores on the Children’s Rejection-Sensitivity Questionnaire (Study 2), and visual attention to socially rejecting stimuli (Study 3). The participants were 185 children (11 years-7 months to 12 years-6 months), 248 children (9 years-4 months to 11 years-8 months) and 140 children (8 years-10 months to 12 years-10 months) in the three studies, respectively. Regression analyses showed that, with depressive symptoms covaried, there were quadratic relations between loneliness and these different measures of hypervigilance to social threat. As hypothesized, only children in the upper range of loneliness demonstrated elevated hostility to ambiguously motivated social exclusion, higher scores on the rejection sensitivity questionnaire, and disengagement difficulties when viewing socially rejecting stimuli. We found that very lonely children are hypersensitive to social threat

Assessing Commitment and Reporting Fidelity to a Text Message-Based Participatory Surveillance in Rural Western Uganda.

Syndromic surveillance, the collection of symptom data from individuals prior to or in the absence of diagnosis, is used throughout the developed world to provide rapid indications of outbreaks and unusual patterns of disease. However, the low cost of syndromic surveillance also makes it highly attractive for the developing world. We present a case study of electronic participatory syndromic surveillance, using participant-mobile phones in a rural region of Western Uganda, which has a high infectious disease burden, and frequent local and regional outbreaks. Our platform uses text messages to encode a suite of symptoms, their associated durations, and household disease burden, and we explore the ability of participants to correctly encode their symptoms, with an average of 75.2% of symptom reports correctly formatted between the second and 11th reporting timeslots. Concomitantly we identify divisions between participants able to rapidly adjust to this unusually participatory style of data collection, and those few for whom the study proved more challenging. We then perform analyses of the resulting syndromic time series, examining the clustering of symptoms by time and household to identify patterns such as a tendency towards the within-household sharing of respiratory illness.National Institute of Health (Grant ID: TW009237)This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Public Library of Science via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.015597

Can people guess what happened to others from their reactions?

Are we able to infer what happened to a person from a brief sample of his/her behaviour? It has been proposed that mentalising skills can be used to retrodict as well as predict behaviour, that is, to determine what mental states of a target have already occurred. The current study aimed to develop a paradigm to explore these processes, which takes into account the intricacies of real-life situations in which reasoning about mental states, as embodied in behaviour, may be utilised. A novel task was devised which involved observing subtle and naturalistic reactions of others in order to determine the event that had previously taken place. Thirty-five participants viewed videos of real individuals reacting to the researcher behaving in one of four possible ways, and were asked to judge which of the four ‘scenarios’ they thought the individual was responding to. Their eye movements were recorded to establish the visual strategies used. Participants were able to deduce successfully from a small sample of behaviour which scenario had previously occurred. Surprisingly, looking at the eye region was associated with poorer identification of the scenarios, and eye movement strategy varied depending on the event experienced by the person in the video. This suggests people flexibly deploy their attention using a retrodictive mindreading process to infer events

Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers

The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and financial markets over the past several decades, little is known if hot streaks apply to individual careers. Here, building on rich literature on lifecycle of creativity, we collected large-scale career histories of individual artists, movie directors and scientists, tracing the artworks, movies, and scientific publications they produced. We find that, across all three domains, hit works within a career show a high degree of temporal regularity, each career being characterized by bursts of high-impact works occurring in sequence. We demonstrate that these observations can be explained by a simple hot-streak model we developed, allowing us to probe quantitatively the hot streak phenomenon governing individual careers, which we find to be remarkably universal across diverse domains we analyzed: The hot streaks are ubiquitous yet unique across different careers. While the vast majority of individuals have at least one hot streak, hot streaks are most likely to occur only once. The hot streak emerges randomly within an individual's sequence of works, is temporally localized, and is unassociated with any detectable change in productivity. We show that, since works produced during hot streaks garner significantly more impact, the uncovered hot streaks fundamentally drives the collective impact of an individual, ignoring which leads us to systematically over- or under-estimate the future impact of a career. These results not only deepen our quantitative understanding of patterns governing individual ingenuity and success, they may also have implications for decisions and policies involving predicting and nurturing individuals with lasting impact

The novel mu-opioid antagonist, GSK1521498, reduces ethanol consumption in C57BL/6J mice.

RATIONALE Using the drinking-in-the-dark (DID) model, we compared the effects of a novel mu-opioid receptor antagonist, GSK1521498, with naltrexone, a licensed treatment of alcohol dependence, on ethanol consumption in mice. OBJECTIVE We test the ability of GSK1521498 to reduce alcohol consumption and compare its intrinsic efficacy to that of naltrexone by comparing the two drugs at doses matched for equivalent receptor occupancy. METHODS Thirty-six C57BL/6J mice were tested in a DID procedure. In 2-day cycles, animals experienced one baseline, injection-free session, and one test session when they received two injections, one of test drug and one placebo. All animals received GSK1521498 (0, 0.1, 1 and 3 mg/kg, i.p., 30 min pre-treatment) and naltrexone (0, 0.1, 1 and 3 mg/kg, s.c. 10 min pre-treatment) in a cross-over design. Receptor occupancies following the same doses were determined ex vivo in separate groups by autoradiography, using [3H]DAMGO. Binding in the region of interest was measured integrally by computer-assisted microdensitometry and corrected for non-specific binding. RESULTS Both GSK1521498 and naltrexone dose-dependently decreased ethanol consumption. When drug doses were matched for 70-75 % receptor occupancy, GSK1521498 3 mg/kg, i.p., caused a 2.5-fold greater reduction in alcohol consumption than naltrexone 0.1 mg/kg, s.c. Both GSK1521498 and naltrexone significantly reduced sucrose consumption at a dose of 1 mg/kg but not 0.1 mg/kg. In a test of conditioned taste aversion, GSK1521498 (3 mg/kg) reduced sucrose consumption 24 h following exposure to a conditioning injection. CONCLUSIONS Both opioid receptor antagonists reduced alcohol consumption but GK1521498 has higher intrinsic efficacy than naltrexone