The ‘Little Ice Age’ in the Southern Hemisphere in the context of the last 3000 years : Peat-based proxy-climate data from Tierra del Fuego

DM’s research (at Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University) was supported through a European Community Marie Curie Fellowship (Contract HPMF-CT-2000-01056).Peer reviewedPostprin

A new peat bog testate amoeba transfer function and quantitative palaeohydrological reconstructions from southern Patagonia

Testate amoebae have been extensively used as proxies for environmental change and palaeoclimate reconstructions in European and North American peatlands. The presence of these micro-organisms near the peat surface is generally significantly linked to the local water table depth (WTD) and therefore preservation of the amoeba shells downcore allows for water table reconstructions over millennia. In the last decades, attention for the palaeoecology of the southern Patagonian peat bogs has increased, partly because of the particular climatological setting under the influence of the southern westerlies. These atypical peat bogs are characterised by a wide range of water tables, from wet hollows to hummocks exceeding 100 cm above the water table, and a dominance of Sphagnum magellanicum on low lawns up to the highest hummocks. Here we present the first transfer function for this region that allows for reliable WTD reconstructions, along with 2k-year palaeorecords from local peat bogs.A modern dataset (155 samples) was sampled along transects from five bogs in 2012 and 2013. Measurements of WTD, pH and conductivity were taken for all samples. Transfer function model was based on the 2012 dataset while the 2013 samples served as an independent test set to validate the model. Besides the standard leave-one- out cross-validation we applied leave-one-site-out and leave-one transect-out cross-validation, which are effective means of verifying the degree of clustering in the dataset. To assure the environmental gradient had been evenly sampled we quantified the root-mean-squared error of prediction (RMSEP) individually for segments of this gradient.Ordinations showed a clear hydrological gradient in amoeba assemblages, with the dominant Assulina muscorum at the dry end and Amphitrema wrightianum and Difflugia globulosa at the wet end. Taxa as Nebela certesi and Nebela cockayni, possibly exclusive to the southern hemisphere, were identified and their optima and tolerances were determined. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that WTD was the most important environmental variable, accounting for 18% of the variance in amoeba assemblages. A weighted averaging-partial least squares model showed best performance in cross-validation and using the 2013 data as an independent test set. Any spatial autocorrelation was minimal although the model still appeared less effective in predicting WTD for sites not included in the training set. The segment-wise RMSEP showed that the WTD gradient was generally evenly sampled with RMSEP below 15 cm for most of the gradient, much lower than the standard deviation of the mean of all WTDs (26 cm).Preliminary results from peat cores sampled from the same peat bogs show surprisingly stable water tables over the last 2k years in Andorra bog but more variation in nearby Tierra Australis bog. Peat accumulation rates in Andorra bog are among the highest recorded in temperate bogs with around 4 m of peat accumulated during the last 2000 year

Small scale analysis of urban air quality and public health in London, UK, provides insights for targeted interventions

Understanding the impact of scale and zonation is critical for accurately assessing population health in relation to air quality and demographic data. Using existing census geographies, we analyse spatial clustering and statistical associations across different census scales, focussing on vulnerable sociodemographic groups and temporal exposure patterns. This study aims to assess how different spatial resolutions affect the strength and interpretation of associations between air pollution, sociodemographic variables, and self-reported health. It also evaluates whether finer-scale, health-need-based zoning provides a more accurate basis for public health analysis. Exposure to higher PM2.5 concentrations, and having an undrlying disability, or long-term illness shows robust associations with poor health (p \u3c 0.001 at all census scales). However, as spatial resolution becomes coarser, the explanatory power of demographic variables weakens, underscoring the risk of ecological fallacy and misinterpretation when relying on aggregated data. Notably, demographic variables become less significant with coarser spatial resolution, supporting the need for scale-sensitive approaches in population health studies. Multiple linear regression analyses demonstrate that explanatory power in health models strengthens at coarser scales, with potential overfitting at ward levels due to high R-squared values. Whilst a stronger model fit is observed at higher levels of aggregation, this may mask within-area heterogeneity and obscure critical local disparities. Our findings suggest that effective public health policies benefit from granular and contextually aligned zoning strategies, which enhance the accuracy and relevance of health assessments. The study highlights the value of fine-scale, health-need-based geographic units in capturing the spatial nuances of population health and provides evidence supporting their use in equitable resource allocation and intervention design. The findings provide a framework for evaluating environmental and demographic factors at appropriate geographic scales to support targeted, equitable health interventions

Late-Holocene climate dynamics recorded in the peat bogs of Tierra del Fuego, South America

The ombrotrophic peat bogs of Tierra del Fuego are located within the southern westerly wind belt (SWWB), which dominates climate variability in this region. We have reconstructed late-Holocene water-table depths from three peat bogs and aimed to relate these records to shifts in regional climate. Water-table depths were quantified by the analysis of testate amoeba assemblages, and a regional transfer function was used to infer past water-table depths. During the last 2000 years, testate amoeba assemblages have been relatively stable, with a dominance of Difflugia pulex and Difflugia pristis type, and an increase in Assulina muscorum and other Euglyphida at the top of each section. Multivariate analyses show that water-table depth remained the main environmental variable explaining assemblages along the TiA12 core, but reconstructions were not significant for the two other cores. In line with the low variability in assemblages, water tables were relatively stable during the last 2000 years. Slightly wetter conditions were found between ~1400 and 900 cal. BP and a pronounced recent dry shift was reconstructed in all of the three peat profiles. Considering the regional climatic context, this recent shift may have been forced by a decrease in precipitation and warmer conditions linked to an increase in the importance of the SWWB. Nevertheless, we cannot exclude the influence of higher UV-B radiation resulting from the local degradation of the ozone layer since the late 1970s, which may have had an additional effect on the relative presence of A. muscorum in the southern Patagonian region

The low-resolution version of HadGEM3 GC3.1: development and evaluation for global climate

A new climate model, HadGEM3 N96ORCA1, is presented that is part of the GC3.1 configuration of HadGEM3. N96ORCA1 has a horizontal resolution of ~135 km in the atmosphere and 1° in the ocean and requires an order of magnitude less computing power than its medium-resolution counterpart, N216ORCA025, while retaining a high degree of performance traceability. Scientific performance is compared both to observations and the N216ORCA025 model. N96ORCA1 reproduces observed climate mean and variability almost as well as N216ORCA025. Patterns of biases are similar across the two models. In the north-west Atlantic, N96ORCA1 shows a cold surface bias of up to 6K, typical of ocean models of this resolution. The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (16 to 17 Sv) matches observations. In the Southern Ocean, a warm surface bias (up to 2K) is smaller than in N216ORCA025 and linked to improved ocean circulation. Model El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are close to observations. Both the cold bias in the Northern hemisphere (N96ORCA1) and the warm bias in the Southern hemisphere (N216ORCA025) develop in the first few decades of the simulations. As in many comparable climate models, simulated interhemispheric gradients of top-of-atmosphere radiation are larger than observations suggest, with contributions from both hemispheres. HadGEM3 GC3.1 N96ORCA1 constitutes the physical core of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) and will be used extensively in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), both as part of UKESM1 and as a stand-alone coupled climate model

Effectiveness of a childhood obesity prevention programme delivered through schools, targeting 6 and 7 year olds: cluster randomised controlled trial (WAVES study).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of a school and family based healthy lifestyle programme (WAVES intervention) compared with usual practice, in preventing childhood obesity. DESIGN: Cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: UK primary schools from the West Midlands. PARTICIPANTS: 200 schools were randomly selected from all state run primary schools within 35 miles of the study centre (n=980), oversampling those with high minority ethnic populations. These schools were randomly ordered and sequentially invited to participate. 144 eligible schools were approached to achieve the target recruitment of 54 schools. After baseline measurements 1467 year 1 pupils aged 5 and 6 years (control: 28 schools, 778 pupils) were randomised, using a blocked balancing algorithm. 53 schools remained in the trial and data on 1287 (87.7%) and 1169 (79.7%) pupils were available at first follow-up (15 month) and second follow-up (30 month), respectively. INTERVENTIONS: The 12 month intervention encouraged healthy eating and physical activity, including a daily additional 30 minute school time physical activity opportunity, a six week interactive skill based programme in conjunction with Aston Villa football club, signposting of local family physical activity opportunities through mail-outs every six months, and termly school led family workshops on healthy cooking skills. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The protocol defined primary outcomes, assessed blind to allocation, were between arm difference in body mass index (BMI) z score at 15 and 30 months. Secondary outcomes were further anthropometric, dietary, physical activity, and psychological measurements, and difference in BMI z score at 39 months in a subset. RESULTS: Data for primary outcome analyses were: baseline, 54 schools: 1392 pupils (732 controls); first follow-up (15 months post-baseline), 53 schools: 1249 pupils (675 controls); second follow-up (30 months post-baseline), 53 schools: 1145 pupils (621 controls). The mean BMI z score was non-significantly lower in the intervention arm compared with the control arm at 15 months (mean difference -0.075 (95% confidence interval -0.183 to 0.033, P=0.18) in the baseline adjusted models. At 30 months the mean difference was -0.027 (-0.137 to 0.083, P=0.63). There was no statistically significant difference between groups for other anthropometric, dietary, physical activity, or psychological measurements (including assessment of harm). CONCLUSIONS: The primary analyses suggest that this experiential focused intervention had no statistically significant effect on BMI z score or on preventing childhood obesity. Schools are unlikely to impact on the childhood obesity epidemic by incorporating such interventions without wider support across multiple sectors and environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN97000586.This study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment Programme (project reference No 06/85/11)

Reconstructing sea-level change in the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) using salt-marsh foraminifera, diatoms and testate amoebae

Proxy records of past sea-level change provide a means of extending sea-level histories from tide gauges into the pre-industrial period. This is especially valuable in the South Atlantic region where sea-level data are limited to only a few tide-gauge records. Multi-proxy approaches to sea-level reconstruction are relatively rare but have distinct benefits when groups of micro-organisms are sparse or under-represented in modern or fossil sediments. Here, we address this challenge by utilising surface foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms from a salt marsh at Swan Inlet, East Falkland. All three micro-organism groups occupied distinct vertical niches in the contemporary salt-marsh. We investigated the relative performance of each group of micro-organisms in providing a sea-level reconstruction using individual (group-specific) regression models and with a multi-proxy regression model that combined all three groups. Foraminifera alone were not a suitable proxy. Surveyed sample elevations were closely matched by estimated elevations using Weighted-Average (WA) and Weighted-Average Partial-Least-Squares (WA- PLS) regressions. Relative sea-level reconstructions were derived by applying each model to microfossil assemblages recovered from a core (SI-2) from the same site. The combined transfer function yielded reconstructive precision (± 0.08 m) comparable to our best single-proxy transfer function (± 0.06 m) but only 18% of palaeo-samples were identified as having “close” or “good” analogues in the combined training data set. We highlight the benefit of a pragmatic approach to sea-level reconstructions whereby additional proxies should be employed if the use of only one proxy performs poorly across the width of the elevation gradient

The Grizzly, April 7, 1997

Airband Sets Its New Fundraising Record • Ursinus Students Participate in Model U.N. • Women\u27s Health Discussed in Merck Lecture • Changes for Summer Classes • Letters: Letter of Thanks; Faculty Member Remembered • Opinion: Seminar on Post-Abortion Trauma • Pfahler Observatory Open House for Hale-Bopp Viewing • Something for Everyone in proTheatre Production of The Two Noble Kinsmen • Another Look at the Ursinus Gymnastics Team • The Dangers of Halogen Lamps • Men\u27s Tennis Wins • Courtney Named an All-American • Trecroce Named Player of the Week • Women\u27s Tennis Action • Women\u27s Lacrosse Falls to Middlebury • Softball Drops 3 in a Row • Dickinson Rallies to Take Two From the Bearshttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1401/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, November 18, 1996

Bears Beat Dickinson, Make NCAA Playoffs • Security and RLO Work Through Changes • Opinion: Question of Security; An Insider Throwing out a Line; One of Four Seasons; It\u27s All in Your Head • Concert and Jazz Bands to Perform • Jude: Hardy\u27s Novel Arrives in the Flesh • Bears Win Conference Championship To Make NCAA Playoffs!!! • Getz and Finnegan Receive Post-Season Honorshttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1392/thumbnail.jp

A systematic environmental intervention, nidotherapy, given to whole communities: protocol for a randomised stepped-wedge trial

Environmental changes can be positive in mental illness. Systematic, planned and guided environmental change in all its aspects is called nidotherapy. It has shown some benefit but has not been extended to whole communities. A cluster-randomised step-wedge trial is planned in six village communities in Nottinghamshire, England, covering an adult population of 400. Adults in six villages will be offered a full personal environmental assessment followed by agreed change in different 3-month periods over the course of 1 year. All six villages have populations between 51 and 100 residents and are similar demographically. Assessments of mental health, personality status, social function, quality of life and environment satisfaction will be made. After the initial baseline period of 3 months, two villages will be randomised to nidotherapy for 3 months, a further two at 6 months and the last two at 9 months. The primary outcome will be change in social function; secondary outcomes include health-related quality of life, anxiety and depressive symptoms, personality status, costs of nidotherapy and life satisfaction. Adverse events will also be recorded. The analysis will be carried out using a multimodal statistical approach examining (a) the change in scores of the primary outcome (social function); (b) change in scores of all secondary outcomes, including costs; and (c) changes in environmental satisfaction. The findings of this study should help to determine whether nidotherapy has a place in the early detection and treatment of mental pathology.N/