An experimental methodology testing for prudence and third-order preferences

We propose an experimental method to test individuals for prudence (i.e. downside risk aversion) outside the expected utility framework. Our method relies on a novel representation of compound lotteries which allows for a systematic parameterization that captures the full generality of prudence. Therefore, we develop a general technique for lottery calibration in experiments. Since we investigate a very subtle third-order property we test our method in the laboratory employing a factorial design. We find that it yields robust results and that prudence is observed on the aggregate as well as on the individual level. Further we show that preferences based on statistical moments, in particular skewness seeking, can at most approximately explain individuals' behavior in the experiment.Decision making under uncertainty, risk preferences, prudence, downside risk, statistical moments, laboratory experiment

Diablo Canyon Power Plant site ecological study Quarterly Report No. 2; October 1 - December 31, 1973

During the period October 1 - December 31, 1973, Fall surveys of permanent subtidal stations were completed with one station being surveyed. We were unable to locate 3 subtidal stations. Intertidal studies were initiated in November. A total of 12 random stations was surveyed. Interviews were conducted with commercial abalone fishermen working between Pt. Buchon to Pecho Rock. We continued to monitor the sea otter herd foraging between Pt. Buchon and Lion Rock. Progress was achieved in the abalone temperature tolerance studies when a successful spawning occurred. (20pp.

Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence and temperance

We propose a method to measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence (downside risk aversion) and temperance (outer risk aversion) in experiments. Higher-order risk compensations are defined within the proper risk apportionment model of Eeckhoudt and Schlesinger [American Economic Review, 96 (2006) 280] that are elicited using a multiple price list format. This approach is not based on expected utility theory. In our experiment we find evidence for risk aversion, prudence and temperance. Women demand higher risk compensations for all orders. The highest compensation is demanded for taking downside risk, not for being (second order) risk-loving. This highlights the importance of prudence when considering economic decisions under risk

Diablo canyon power plant site ecological study Quarterly Report No. 1; July 1 - September 30, 1973

The second phase of ecological studies at the Diablo Canyon Power Plant site was initiated in July 1973. The first, phase conducted during 1970-71 involved baseline ecological surveys with special reference to abalone and bony fishes. The objectives of this second phase are to quantitativey monitor abalone and algal communities, including predators and competitors, along permanent intertidal and subtidal transects established during the first phase. During the quarter nine permanent transects were located and marked with new buoys. Surveys on seven of these transects were completed, and the commercial sea urchin and red abalone fisheries operating in the Diablo Cove area were monitored. Sea otter activities between Diablo Cove and Pt. Buchon were recorded to determine the location of the herd and their general food habits. Little evidence of feeding activity has been observed in Diablo Cove. Temperature tolerance studies, began in March 1973 on red abalones, were continued. Problems in obtaining viable abalone larvae hampered this project.(11pp.

Time Warp: Authorship Shapes the Perceived Timing of Actions and Events

It has been proposed that inferring personal authorship for an event gives rise to intentional binding, a perceptual illusion in which one's action and inferred effect seem closer in time than they otherwise would (Haggard, Clark, & Kalogeras, 2002). Using a novel, naturalistic paradigm, we conducted two experiments to test this hypothesis and examine the relationship between binding and self-reported authorship. In both experiments, an important authorship indicator - consistency between one's action and a subsequent event - was manipulated, and its effects on binding and self-reported authorship were measured. Results showed that action-event consistency enhanced both binding and self-reported authorship, supporting the hypothesis that binding arises from an inference of authorship. At the same time, evidence for a dissociation emerged, with consistency having a more robust effect on self-reports than on binding. Taken together, these results suggest that binding and self-reports reveal different aspects of the sense of authorship.Psycholog

An experimental methodology testing for prudence and third-order preferences

We propose an experimental method to test individuals for prudence (i.e. downside risk aversion) outside the expected utility framework. Our method relies on a novel representation of compound lotteries which allows for a systematic parameterization that captures the full generality of prudence. Therefore, we develop a general technique for lottery calibration in experiments. Since we investigate a very subtle third-order property we test our method in the laboratory employing a factorial design. We find that it yields robust results and that prudence is observed on the aggregate as well as on the individual level. Further we show that preferences based on statistical moments, in particular skewness seeking, can at most approximately explain individuals' behavior in the experiment

Diablo Canyon Power Plant site ecological study Quarterly Report No. 3; January 1 - March 31, 1974

During the period January 1 - March 31, 1974, winter surveys of the permanent subtidal stations were initiated. Three stations were surveyed. We completed our winter random intertidal surveys; a total of 14 stations in Diablo Cove and the North Control Area were visited. The commercial sea urchin fishery resumed and we began interviewing fishermen again. Very little commercial abalone fishing occurred due to the one-month closed season and winter storms. We observed a sea otter in North Cove for the first time and harbor seals were also observcd on the eastern end of the south breakwater for the first time since we began our studies. (17pp.

Mistaking Randomness for Free Will

Belief in free will is widespread. The present research considered one reason why people may believe that actions are freely chosen rather than determined: they attribute randomness in behavior to free will. Experiment 1 found that participants who were prompted to perform a random sequence of actions experienced their behavior as more freely chosen than those who were prompted to perform a deterministic sequence. Likewise, Experiment 2 found that, all else equal, the behavior of animated agents was perceived to be more freely chosen if it consisted of a random sequence of actions than if it consisted of a deterministic sequence; this was true even when the degree of randomness in agents’ behavior was largely a product of their environments. Together, these findings suggest that randomness in behavior—one’s own or another’s—can be mistaken for free will.Psycholog

Kombinierte Methode zur Bestimmung der Flussdichteverteilung am Beispiel Solugas

Turmkraftwerke weisen einen hohen Wirkungsgrad und große Kostensenkungs-potenziale auf. Zur Bestimmung der Wirkungsgrade und Eintrittsleistung und zur Optimierung des Betriebs dient die Messung der solaren Flussdichteverteilung in der Ebene der Eintrittsapertur des Receivers. Flussdichtemesssysteme nutzen häufig einen diffus reflektierenden Schwenkbalken, der sich vor dem Receiver vorbeibewegt, während eine CCD-Kamera die Helligkeitsverteilung der am Balken reflektierten solaren Strahlung aufnimmt. Anschließend wird das Bild mit Radio-meterwerten kalibriert. An kommerziellen Turmkraftwerken höherer Leistung und entsprechend größerer Apertur sind mechanische Schwenkbalken sehr groß und daher nur bedingt geeignet. Aus diesem Grund werden Messmethoden untersucht, die ohne Schwenkbalken auskommen [1]. Eine Methode kombiniert eine Raytracing-Simulation mit einer vereinfachten Messung im Bereich des Strahlungsschutzes. Die Messung dient dabei zur Validierung der Simulationen. Aus dem Simulationsergebnis lassen sich dann alle wichtigen Größen zur Charakterisierung des Kraftwerkes ableiten. Dieses Poster präsentiert die Anwendung dieser Methode an dem Demonstrationskraftwerk SOLUGAS, einem Cavityrohrreceiver mit Mikrogasturbine [2]

Inverted spin polarization of Heusler alloys for new spintronic devices

A new magnetic logic overcomes the major limitations of field programmable gate arrays while having a 50% smaller unit cell than conventional designs utilizing magnetic tunnel junctions with one Heusler alloy electrode. These show positive and negative TMR values at different bias voltages at room temperature which generally adds an additional degree of freedom to all spintronic devices