Using business survey in industrial and services sector to nowcast GDP growth:The French case

This paper proposes new bridge equations for the short-term French GDP forecasting. This tool allows to nowcast the quarterly GDP growth in France for the current quarter, based on the monthly business surveys in the industrial and services sectors. We use an automatic model selection procedure which brings a robust, clear and systematic framework for selecting variables. The forecasting performance for the different selected models is evaluated and we show that taking into account the business surveys in the services sector can be useful for nowcasting GDP growth rate.

Performance of short-term trend predictors for current economic analysis

We study the performance of several short-term trend estimators for current economic analysis. These estimators are available in X11-ARIMA, X12-ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP. We also include two other trend-cycle estimators obtained by post-processing seasonally adjusted data with X11ARIMA, namely, a modified Henderson nonlinear filter by Dagum (1996) DMH, and a new modified version of it, DMH-D. The estimators are applied to a number of simulated non-seasonal data of various levels of variability.

Does antepartum perineal massage reduce intrapartum lacerations?

Yes--to a point. Antepartum perineal massage reduces both the incidence of perineal trauma requiring suturing and the likelihood of episiotomy in women who have never given birth vaginally. It reduces the incidence of postpartum perineal pain in women who have given birth vaginally. Perineal massage doesn't reduce the frequency of first- or second-degree lacerations or third- and fourth-degree perineal trauma. (Strength of recommendation [SOR]: A, systematic review of randomized controlled trials [RCTs].

Early detection of autism: comparison of two screening tools

Background: The aim of the study was comparison of a newly developed test called Trivandrum Autism Behavioural Checklist (TABC) with gold standard test; Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (CHAT).  Methods: The study was done on 200 children over a period of three months between age group of 24 to 36 months.  All the children were briefly evaluated for history and then the two tests were administered by two doctors.Results: It was found that out of total 200 children only 3 children were suspected to have autism by the CHAT test and they failed in the scores by having more number of “no” answers.  It was also observed that the same 3 children were also detected to have autism by the TABC scores in which one girl was suspected to have severe autism while two boys seemed to have mild to moderate autism. The prevalence of autism as per this study was seen to be around 1.5%.Conclusions: Thus it can be inferred from this study that TABC test is an equally good option for screening children for autism.

Explorations in monetary cliometrics: the Reichsbank: 1876-1920

Die saisonbedingten 'unit root tests' ermöglichen es, das Wesen von deterministischen und stochastischen saisonbedingten Schwankungen zu bestimmen. Der Autor wendet diese Methode im vorliegenden Arbeitspapier auf die originalen monatlichen Reihen des Währungsvorrats der Reichsbank an (umgerechnet auf wöchentliche Daten mit 2160 Beobachtungen) und hebt die deterministischen, saisonbedingten Schwankungen mit einer besonders ausgeprägten Saisonbedingtheit zu Anfang und am Ende des Jahres hervor. Dieses statistische Ergebnis wird abschließend zu den Wendepunkten in Beziehung gesetzt, die von der historischen Analyse ermittelt worden sind. (ICIÜbers)'The seasonal unit root tests make it possible to determine the nature of the deterministic and stochastic seasonal fluctuations. In this paper, the author's apply this method to the original monthly series of the Reichsbank monetary stock (constructed in weekly data with 2160 observations) and emphasize deterministic seasonal fluctuations with notably a strong seasonality at the beginning and at the end of the year. This statistical result is closely related to the turning points detected by the historical analysis.' (author's abstract

Autorité, pouvoir et obéissances dans un foyer pour adolescents

Autoridade, poder e obediência se interpenetram na educação de adolescentes institucionalizados em um lar para jovens difíceis. De acordo com os momentos da instituição e o posicionamento dos vários protagonistas, as articulações desses vários elementos são postas de forma diferente e produzem certos efeitos. A passagem ao ato de um educador sobre um adolescente ocorre em um contexto de subjugação a um poder de dominação que não dá espaço à ação educacional não autoritária. O processo de desvinculação externa em andamento na instituição poderia ser reproduzido e internalizado pelo educador? O que a passagem ao ato pode testemunhar?&nbsp

Avaluació de diferents opcions per augmentar la integració a la xarxa elèctrica d’electricitat d’origen renovable

L’objecte del present d’energia renovables treball consisteix en l’estudi de la integració a gran escala de fonts (eòlica i solar) en la xarxa elèctrica. Això representa un gran desafiament a causa de la incertesa d’aquests recursos ja que pateixen grans variacions i sobretot, sobtades. Es pretén, per tant, efectuar una anàlisi comparativa de diferents mesures de flexibilitat existents com poden ser una estació de bombament, una estació de bateries, una resposta a la demanda o bé una planta virtual, encaminades a augmentar el grau d’integració a la xarxa elèctrica de l’electricitat provinent d’aquestes fonts renovables. Aquestes mesures s’utilitzaran per tal d’assegurar la operació eficient i segura del sistema elèctric en escenaris d’elevada penetració renovable. Les fonts renovables es complementen amb les fonts de generació convencional i de biomassa. Aquest estudi s’ha realitzat amb la modelització mitjançant el programari AIMMS. Com a conclusió es pot veure que totes les opcions de flexibilitat disminueixen, en major o menor grau, el vessament de les fonts renovables i per tant s’obté més quantitat d’energia renovable aprofitada. Aquest fet ajuda a aconseguir minimitzar l’efecte de la variabilitat de les renovables

Diabetes, pulse pressure and cardiovascular mortality: the Hoorn Study

Objective: Type 2 diabetic patients have an increased arterial stiffness and a very high risk of cardiovascular death. The present study investigated the relationship between pulse pressure, an indicator of vascular stiffness, and risk of cardiovascular mortality among type 2 diabetic and non-diabetic individuals. Second, we determined the relationship between pulse pressure and its main determinant (i.e. age), and the influence of diabetes and mean arterial pressure on this relationship. Design and methods: We studied a cohort of 2484 individuals including 208 type 2 diabetic patients. Mean age and median follow-up for non-diabetic and diabetic individuals, respectively, were 61 and 66 years, and 8.8 and 8.6 years. One-hundred and sixteen non-diabetic and 34 diabetic individuals died of cardiovascular causes. Relative risks of cardiovascular mortality were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for age, gender and mean arterial pressure. Results: Pulse pressure was associated with cardiovascular mortality among the diabetic, but not among the non-diabetic individuals [adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval) per 10 mmHg increase, 1.27 (1.00-1.61) and 0.98 (0.85-1.13), P interaction = 0.07]. Further adjustment for other risk factors gave similar results. The association, at baseline, between age and pulse pressure was dependent on the presence of diabetes (P interaction = 0.03) and on the mean arterial pressure (P interaction < 0.001) (i.e. there was a stronger association when diabetes was present and when mean arterial pressure was higher). Conclusions: We conclude that, in type 2 diabetes, pulse pressure is positively associated with cardiovascular mortality. The association between age and pulse pressure is influenced by the presence of type 2 diabetes and by the height of the mean arterial pressure. These findings support the concept of accelerated vascular aging in type 2 diabetes. © 2002 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins