Incentives and the Limits to Deflationary Policy

I study a version of the Lagos-Wright (2005) model for which the Friedman rule is always a desirable policy, but where implementation may be constrained by the need to respect incentive-feasibility. In the environment I consider, incentives are distorted owing to private information and limited commitment. I demonstrate that a monetary economy can overcome the former friction, but not necessarily the latter. When this is so, there is an incentive-induced lower bound to the rate of deflation away from the Friedman rule. There are also circumstances in which the best incentive-feasible monetary policy may entail a strictly positive rate of inflation. This will be the case, for example, if agents are sufficiently impatient or if there are rapidly diminishing returns to production.

Monetary Implications of the Hayashi-Prescott Hypothesis for Japan

Japan, Productivity Slowdown, Liquidity Trap

Essential Interest-Bearing Money

In this paper, I provide a rationale for why money should earn interest; or, what amounts to the same thing, why risk-free claims to non-interest-bearing money should trade at discount. I argue that interest-bearing money is essential when individual money balances are private information. The analysis also suggests one reason for why it is sufficient (as well as necessary) for interest to be paid only on large money balances; or equivalently, why bonds need only be issued in large denominations.Money; Bonds; Monetary Policy; Friedman Rule

The simple analytics of money and credit in a quasi-linear environment

Lagos and Wright (2005) demonstrate how the essential properties of a money-search model are preserved in an environment that is rendered highly tractable with the use of quasi-linear preferences. In this paper, I show that this same innovation can be applied to closely related environments used elsewhere in the literature that study insurance and credit markets under limited commitment and private information. The analysis demonstrates clearly how insurance, credit, and money are interrelated in terms of their basic functions. The analysis also leads to a heretofore neglected result pertaining to the Friedman rule. In particular, I find that the same frictions that render money essential may at the same time operate to render the Friedman rule infeasible. Thus, even if the Friedman rule is a desirable policy, an incentive-induced lower bound on the rate of deflation may nevertheless entail a strictly postive rate of inflation.Money ; Credit

Human Capital Investment and Debt Constraints

When young individuals face binding debt constraints, their human capital investments will be insufficiently financed by private creditors. If generations overlap, then a well-designed fiscal policy may be able to improve human capital investments by replacing missing capital markets with an intergenerational transfer scheme. Boldrin and Monte (2002) demonstrate that the optimal (balanced budget) fiscal policy in this context entails the joint provision of an education subsidy for the young and a pension program for the old, financed with a tax on those in their peak earning years. We demonstrate, however, that the desirability of such a policy depends crucially on the assumption of an exogenous debt constraint. If debt constraints arise endogenously for reasons of limited commitment, then the optimal (balanced budget) fiscal policy looks radically different. Furthermore, we find that arbitrary (non-optimal) policy interventions may actually lead to lower levels of human capital investment as altered default incentives induce private creditors to contract the supply of student loans by an amount greater than the subsidy. In some cases, the constrained-optimal policy entails zero intervention. These results highlight the importance of taking seriously the reasons for why debt constraints exist, before recommending any specific policy intervention.

Heterogeneous Time-Preference and the Distribution of Wealth

This paper analyzes a dynamic model in which physical capital can be accumulated or depleted, and labour supply is endogenous. The distribution of income is then endogenously determined by both technological parameters of production, and the distribution of agents' discount parameters. Degenerate wealth distributions, in which only the most patient agents have any wealth, are avoided by having a fraction of the agents die each period, and bequeath their wealth to descendants with independently random discount parameters. On average, more patient agents will have higher wealths and incomes, but in the short run agents' stocks of wealth depend on their inherited wealth. If a patient individual lives long enough, she will retire and live on only investment income, while if an impatient individual lives long enough, he will deplete all his wealth and live on only labour earnings. The effects of a general increase in patience are an increase in the wage rate, a lowering of the return on capital, and general increases in wealth, income, and utility. Possibilities for engineering such an increase, by promoting 'artificial patience', could include favourable taxation of investment income, forced savings such as payroll-tax financed pension plans, or public subsidies for education and health.time-preference, patience, wealth

Monetary policy regimes and beliefs

Revised. This paper investigates the role of beliefs over monetary policy in propagating the effects of monetary policy shocks within the context of a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model. In this model, monetary policy periodically switches between low- and high-money-growth regimes. When individuals cannot observe the regime directly, they must draw inferences over regime type based on historical money growth rates. The authors show that for an empirically plausible money growth process, beliefs evolve slowly in the wake of a regime change. As a result, their model is able to capture some of the observed persistence of real and nominal variables following such a regime change.Monetary policy

A Theory of Money and Banking

We construct a simple environment that combines a limited communication friction and a limited information friction in order to generate a role for money and intermediation. We ask whether there is any reason to expect the emergence of a banking sector (i.e., institutions that combine the business of money creation with the business of intermediation). In our model the unique equilibrium is characterized, in part, by the existence of an agent that: (1) creates money (a debt instrument that circulates as a means of payment); (2) lends it out (swapping it for less liquid forms of debt); (3) is responsible for monitoring those agents in control of the capital backing the illiquid debt; and (4) collects on money loans as they come due. Furthermore, the bank money in our model is a debt instrument that embeds within it important stipulations that are found in actual private money instruments. Thus, our model goes some way in addressing the questions of why private money takes the form that it does, as well as why private money is typically supplied by banks.Money, Banking