Gradually “Disappearingâ€: A Look at the Status of Area Harvested of Millet in Togo, Determinants and Policy Implications

As a traditional crop in many developing countries, millet, by virtue of its high nutritive qualities, longer shelf-life, tolerance to drought and provision of multiple security has served and continues to serve as a relevant crop for enhancing food security and reducing poverty in Togo (and other West African countries). Limited marketing opportunities however, amidst shifting dietary patterns, low priority of millet in research support, and policies favoring production of tradable commodities at the expense of non-tradable staples has led to a general stagnation in yields, and significant declines in acreage  and output of millet in Togo. Prompted by fear of a possible disappearance/extinction of millet from the country’s agrarian landscape in the near future (thereby posing future food insecurity and poverty threat), the current study (with the objective of analyzing trends in area harvested of millet in Togo and determinants thereof), through the use of standard and improved acreage response models (within the Nerlovian framework) sourced drawing stakeholder attention to current state of the millet sub-sector in Togo and making vital future policy prescriptions. Given extremely low coefficient of adaptation and high long-run estimates observed in this study, should current neglect of the millet subsector continue, there exists a greater chance of extinction of millet from Togo’s agrarian landscape. Efforts to prevent such extinction and to revitalize the sub-sector should place much emphasis on increasing both acreages and yields (through investing in high yielding varieties and in research and development in line with production and trade) of millet in the country, on ensuring increased supply of cheap labor (through minimization of rural-urban migration), and on further promoting current upland rice/millet mixed cropping systems in the unimodal rainfall zones (to ensure the sub-sector benefits from production incentives for the rice subsector). Pricing policy governing the millet sub-sector should as well be revised to help minimize the high long-run responsiveness of millet producers to price incentives for the maize and yam sub-sectors (as this significantly accounts for drift of millet producers to the maize and yam sub-sectors). In addition, producers and other stakeholders should be given enough incentives to appropriately invest in the millet subsector

Extreme weather events in Sudan Savanna Region of West Africa : agricultural impacts and adaptation

Climate and weather extremes generally lead to crop yield, income and consumption losses. Despite their occurrence at the farm level, very little has so far been done to empirically assess weather risks and their effects on welfare at the farm household level, especially, in the West African Sudan Savanna. This thesis analyzes intra-seasonal risk of weather extremes, farmers' adaptation, and impacts of climate shocks on farm households' welfare in the Sudan Savanna of West Africa. The study is based on data from primary and secondary sources and is organized into three main chapters. Using descriptive techniques, Markov chain model and climatic indices for monitoring weather extremes, it is found that the major climatic threats to crop and livestock production in the regions are rainfall and temperature related. In responding to intra-seasonal climatic threats, some of the farmers practice early planting to take advantage of the first rains, while majority of the farmers either plant late to avoid early-season dry spells or spread their planting to minimize production losses. It is found that for the early planters, the chances for seedlings to be exposed to dry spells of 10 days is estimated at 26.9% to 34.6% in the next 30 days from April 1, while for late planters there is a 36.5% to 48.0% probability for crops to be exposed to dry spells of 21days in the next 30 days from October 28. For the spreaders, there is a high probability for seedlings to be exposed to dry and hot spells and intense precipitation between May and October. Employing descriptive techniques, Poisson regression and multivariate probit model for analyzing farmers' perception of and adaptation to weather extremes, it is found that farmers' perception of changes in the local climate are in conformity with climatic trends. In adapting to recent changes in the local climate, farmers in the regions implemented a total of 12 adaptation strategies. Although farmers are found to be more likely to adopt a mix of adaptive strategies, they are 7 times more likely to resort to the joint adoption of 6 low-cost measures than adopting 5 capital-intensive measures. This suggests that financial capabilities play major role in farmers adaptation decisions. Institutional and infrastructural measures like distance to markets, access to extension services and credit are found to be the most important determinants of farmers adaptation choices. Econometric and mathematical programming models are used in the final chapter to simulate the impact of climate shocks on farmers' welfare in the Northern Savanna of Ghana. Farmers were grouped into homogenous units. Three groups of farmers were identified. These are, two poor farmers groups who operate under low input conditions on medium-scale farms (Clusters 1 and 2), and less poor farmers who operate under high input conditions on small-scale farms. It is found that, compared to the current rainfall distribution, a drier future could result in total income loss of about 3.70% (in Cluster 3) to 23.75% (Cluster 1). Under this scenario, the quantity of food available for consumption is predicted to decrease across all the three clusters, although a greater decrease is expected in Cluster 1. Besides the predicted changes in income and consumption, a drier future could result in 13.6%, 5.69% and 3.33% decreases in the shadow price of rainfed lands in Clusters 1, 2 and 3 respectively. It is found that irrigation expansion in the study area could lead to income gains of about 3.98% to 35.32% under the current rainfall distribution, while investment in research and development efforts could lead to income gains of about 10.31% to 33.48%. The poor farmers of Clusters 1 and 2 are expected to benefit the most from these two interventions. In conclusion, the study shows that policy efforts made to improve farmers access to markets, credit, extension services, and timely and accurate weather forecasts could enhance farmers' adaptation to climate shocks, while the implementation of appropriate adaptation strategies could help to curb the adverse impacts of climate and weather shocks.Klima- und Wetterextreme rufen generell Verluste in Ernte, Einkommen und Nachfrage hervor. Obwohl sie bereits auf lokaler Ebene sichtbar sind, wurde bisher wenig unternommen, um Wetterrisiken und ihre Auswirkungen auf Lebensbedingungen auf Haushaltlevel empirisch zu erfassen, vor allem in der Westafrikanischen Sudan-Savanne. Diese Arbeit analysiert intrasaisonale Risiken von Wetterrisiken, Anpassung von Bauern und Auswirkungen von Klimaschocks auf Lebensbedingungen von Kleinbauern in der Sudan-Savanne von Westafrika. Die Studie basiert auf primären und sekundären Datenquellen und lässt sich in drei Kapitel gliedern. Deskriptive Methoden (Markov-Modell sowie klimatische Indizes für das Monitoring von Wetterextremen) ergaben, dass die bedeutsamsten klimatischen Bedrohungen für Land- und Viehwirtschaft in der Region niederschlags- und temperaturbedingt sind. Um intrasaisonale Klimabedrohungen entgegenzuwirken, säen einige Bauern früh aus, um frühe Regenfälle zu nutzen, während die Mehrzahl entweder spät aussät, um den Feldfrüchten frühe Trockenperioden zu ersparen, oder die Aussaat zeitlich verteilen, um das Risiko für Ernteausfälle zu verkleinern. Die Ergebnisse der Gruppe der früh aussäenden Bauern zeigen, dass die Jungpflanzen mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 26,9% und 34,6% in den Tagen ab dem 1. April einer Trockenperiode von 10 Tagen ausgesetzt sind. Für die Gruppe der spät aussäenden Bauern beträgt die Wahrscheinlichkeit 36,5% bis 40,0%, dass die Feldfrüchte Trockenperioden von 21 Tagen in den 30 Tagen ab dem 1. Oktober ausgesetzt sind. In der Gruppe der Bauern, die die Aussaat verteilen, ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit hoch, dass die Jungpflanzen Heiß- und Trockenperioden und intensivem Regen zwischen Mai und Oktober ausgesetzt sind. Weitere deskriptive Methoden (Poisson-Verteilung und multivariable Probit-Modell für die Analyse der Anpassung an und Wahrnehmung von Wetterextremen der Kleinbauern) zeigten, dass die Wahrnehmung von Veränderungen im Lokalklima mit klimatischen Trends übereinstimmt. Um sich an diese Veränderungen anzupassen, nutzen Bauern insgesamt zwölf Anpassungsstrategien. Obwohl sie tendenziell einen Mix aus verschiedenen Anpassungsstrategien anwenden, ist es siebenmal wahrscheinlicher, dass sie auf eine Kombination aus sechs kostengünstigen Methoden zurückgreifen als auf eine Kombination von fünf kostenintensiven Methoden. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass finanzielle Ressourcen eine wichtige Rolle in der Entscheidungsfindung für Anpassungsmaßnahmen spielen. Institutionelle und infrastrukturelle Maßnahmen wie die Entfernung zu Märkten, Zugang zu staatlichen Leistungen und Krediten sind laut den Ergebnissen die wichtigsten Faktoren im Entscheidungsprozess. Ökonometrische und mathematische Programmierungsmodelle werden im letzten Teil angewandt, um die Auswirkung von Klimaschocks auf die Lebensbedingungen von Bauern in der nördlichen Savanne in Ghana zu simulieren. Bauern wurden in homogene Einheiten eingeteilt. Drei Gruppen von Bauern wurden identifiziert: zwei Gruppen in hoher Armut, die unter Bedingungen mit geringem Input in Farmen auf mittlerer Skala (Cluster 1 und 2) operieren und eine Gruppe mit geringerer Armut, die unter Bedingungen mit hohem Input in Farmen auf kleiner Skala operiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass, im Vergleich zu der aktuellen Niederschlagsverteilung, eine trockene Zukunft einen Einkommensausfall von 3,70% (in Cluster 1) bis 23,75% (Cluster 3) hätte. In diesem Szenario kann vorhergesagt werden, dass die Quantität der Nahrung, die für Konsum zur Verfügung steht, in allen drei Clustern sinkt, wobei die größte Abnahme in Cluster 1 erwartet werden kann. Neben den vorausgesagten Veränderungen in Einkommen und Konsum kann eine trockene Zukunft zu einer Abnahme von 13,6%, 5,69% und 3,33% der Schattenpreise von Regenfeldbau in Cluster 1, 2 und 3 führen. Verstärkte Bewässerung in der Studienregion kann bei aktuellen Niederschlagsbedingungen zu Einkommenssteigerungen von 3,98% bis 35,32% führen, während Investitionen in Forschung und Entwicklungsmaßnahmen das Einkommen von 10,31% bis 33,48% steigern könnte. Die Bauern aus armen Verhältnissen in Cluster 1 und 2 könnten von dieses zwei Eingriffen am meisten profitieren. Zusammenfassend zeigt diese Studie, dass politische Bemühungen für einen verbesserten Zugang von Bauern zu Märkten, Krediten, staatlichen Leistungen und rechtzeitigen und akkuraten Wettervorhersagen die Anpassung an Klimaschocks verbessern könnte. Die Implementierung von geeigneten Anpassungsstrategien könnte dann dazu beitragen, die nachteiligen Auswirkungen von Klima- und Wetterschocks zu dämpfen

Export performance and macro-linkages: A look at the competitiveness and determinants of cocoa exports, production and prices for Ghana

This study presents an analysis of Ghana’s performance in export of cocoa using the revealed comparative advantage and revealed symmetric comparative advantage measures of competitiveness for the periods 1964-69 (immediate years following the collapse of world price of cocoa), 1983-92 (Reform and Adjustment Period) and 2000-2010 (recent decade). In addition, the magnitude and effects of key economic determinants of cocoa exports, production and farm gate price for Ghana are estimated. RCA and RSCA figures computed in the current study show that Ghana has comparative advantage in export of both raw and processed cocoa, with its advantage being higher in exports of the raw product. Ghana’s performance in export of cocoa has improved significantly since 1983. This observation is attributed to initiation of the Economic Recovery Program in 1983(which created the right conditions for agricultural investment and helped address inefficiencies in marketing and fiscal disciplines), the Agricultural Services Rehabilitation Project (ASRP) between 1987 and 1990 (which helped in strengthening the capacity of agricultural research, extension and policy planning), opening up of the domestic market to competition through partial liberalization of internal marketing from the early 1990s, establishment of a price stabilization system and continuous government support to the sector through increased public spending on infrastructure and productivity-enhancing innovations. Improvement in the export performance, anticipated increases in global demand and world price of cocoa, wide yield gap of Ghana, positive attitude of farmers towards supply of cocoa due to increased government support, and intensification of competition on the domestic market indicate potential for further improvement in Ghana’s production and export of cocoa. However, upon estimates obtained in the current study, to realize any further improvement in the performance of the cocoa subsector, measures should be put in place to bridge the wide yield gap, ensure continuous government support to various stakeholders in the supply chain, and tighten the loose border between Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire to help minimize smuggling in times of increasing farm gate price of cocoa in Côte d’Ivoir

Why the Persistent Increase in Ghana’s Rice Imports? Prescriptions for Future Rice Policy

Prompted by the persistent increase in rice imports (and the implications thereof) amidst implementation of various import reduction policies and strategies in Ghana, this study sourced assessment of the plausible determinants of volume and value of rice imports in Ghana. Use was made of an imperfect substitutes model (an extension of the traditional import demand model) applied in a multiple regression frame for the period 1965-2009. Based on a framework used in this study, the perceived determinants of rice imports were local rice production, relative price ratio between imported and local rice, real per capita income, relative price ratio between maize and imported rice, relative price ratio between millet and imported rice, consumer tax equivalent of tariff on rice imports, domestic (beginning) stock variation, domestic demand for meat, urbanization index, trade liberalization and lagged value of rice imports. Estimates for the respective models, however, revealed that, both volume and value of rice imports increase significantly with increasing real per capita income, increasing millet price (keeping that for imported rice unchanged), increasing demand for meat, urbanization and with trade liberalization. In as much as volume of rice imports decreased marginally with increments in domestic stock, effect on value of rice imports was not significant. Local rice production, consumer tax equivalent of tariff on rice imports, relative price ratio between imported and local rice, relative price ratio between maize and imported rice and lagged value of rice imports had no significant effects on both volume and value of rice imports. Among the variables with significant effects, increments in relative price ratio between millet and imported rice, and urbanization yield the greatest impact (positive) on both volume and value of rice imports. Given these findings, there arises a need for policy makers to look beyond variables currently emphasized in rice policy of the country. For Ghana to stand a chance of significantly reducing rice imports and meeting set targets, effort should be made to intensively pursue quality improvement of locally-produced food, especially the most consumed rice substitutes for which Ghana holds a strong comparative advantage and incorporate income dynamics, dynamics in millet price (relative to import price), dynamics in domestic meat demand, and patterns of urbanization in future rice policy

Response of rice output to price and non-price factors in Ghana

The objective of this study was to assess the magnitude and effect of various price and non-price factors on output of rough rice in Ghana for the period 1966-2009. Coefficients of the output response model were estimated through the ordinary least squares (OLS) and tested for stability and appropriate standard Gaussian properties. Output of rough rice was found to be positively and significantly driven by increases in harvested area, yield, own price and world price of rice with important indirect effects to producers. It however decreases with unit increases in the price of maize, urea fertilizer and with increasing state involvement in the rice market through nominal rate of assistance. Supply of local rice in Ghana could be improved through vigorous pursuance of intensification and area expansion and appropriate transmission of prices to farmers with least distortion

Export performance and macro-linkages: A look at the competitiveness and determinants of cocoa exports, production and prices for Ghana

This study presents an analysis of Ghana’s performance in export of cocoa using the revealed comparative advantage and revealed symmetric comparative advantage measures of competitiveness for the periods 1964-69 (immediate years following the collapse of world price of cocoa), 1983-92 (Reform and Adjustment Period) and 2000-2010 (recent decade). In addition, the magnitude and effects of key economic determinants of cocoa exports, production and farm gate price for Ghana are estimated. RCA and RSCA figures computed in the current study show that Ghana has comparative advantage in export of both raw and processed cocoa, with its advantage being higher in exports of the raw product. Ghana’s performance in export of cocoa has improved significantly since 1983. This observation is attributed to initiation of the Economic Recovery Program in 1983(which created the right conditions for agricultural investment and helped address inefficiencies in marketing and fiscal disciplines), the Agricultural Services Rehabilitation Project (ASRP) between 1987 and 1990 (which helped in strengthening the capacity of agricultural research, extension and policy planning), opening up of the domestic market to competition through partial liberalization of internal marketing from the early 1990s, establishment of a price stabilization system and continuous government support to the sector through increased public spending on infrastructure and productivity-enhancing innovations. Improvement in the export performance, anticipated increases in global demand and world price of cocoa, wide yield gap of Ghana, positive attitude of farmers towards supply of cocoa due to increased government support, and intensification of competition on the domestic market indicate potential for further improvement in Ghana’s production and export of cocoa. However, upon estimates obtained in the current study, to realize any further improvement in the performance of the cocoa subsector, measures should be put in place to bridge the wide yield gap, ensure continuous government support to various stakeholders in the supply chain, and tighten the loose border between Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire to help minimize smuggling in times of increasing farm gate price of cocoa in Côte d’Ivoir

Price and non-price determinants and supply response of rice in Côte d’Ivoire

Characterized by weak local rice productivity, inefficient marketing and processing of paddy among other constraints, the local rice sector in Côte d’Ivoire has failed to meet domestic rice consumption needs. In the absence of comprehension action, the country is expected to face a deficit of 1,731,583 Mt in supply of rice by the year 2020, which could consequently result in huge drainage of foreign exchange through imports. To inform future policy decisions on rice towards mitigation of the adverse effect such occurrence may have on producers, consumers and the country as a whole, this study analyzed the acreage and output responses of rice in Côte d’Ivoire for the period 1966-2009. The results suggest that rice farmers respond more to changes in price of competitive maize crop than they do own-price due to inefficiency of collection, processing and marketing in the local rice industry, limited participation of various stakeholders in development of the rice supply chain, failure of most buyers to observe contract terms and surtax on producer price due to high cost of transportation. The stagnation observed in output between the years 1988 and 2009, is found to result from a significant inverse association between area cultivated and yield of rice. As a major importer of rice and based on results of the current study, it is believed that Côte d’Ivoire could improve on its rice supply and effectively meet the anticipated deficit by putting in place measures to increase land area under cultivation, ensure a harmonization between yield and acreage cultivated, reduce labor shortages, ensure continuous government support to the sector, address the adverse fiscal effect of the exchange rate system and promote stakeholder participation in development of the rice supply chain

Output supply and yield response of rice in Nigeria: implications for future rice policy

With the local rice industry of Nigeria been hindered by inconsistent government policies, improper methods of production, high cost and scarcity of vital inputs of production among other constraints, domestic production of rice has failed to catch up with the increasing pace of consumption. In spite of the strong agricultural and natural resource base it hauls, Nigeria spends a total of about US$11 billion annually on importation of rice, wheat, sugar and fish. Attempts by previous regimes and the current government to reverse the net rice importer status of the country has proven futile regardless of the high tariffs imposed on imports, quantitative restriction through the use of quota and outright ban between the years 1986 and 1995. To inform future rice policy decisions on the way forward, the current study analyzed the output supply and yield response of rice in Nigeria. The results show that output of rice increases with increasing harvested area of rice, increasing farm gate price of rice, increasing nominal rate of assistance and increasing labor availability. It however decreases with increasing price of maize. Yield increases with increasing farm gate price of rice, nominal rate of assistance and labor availability. It however decreases with increasing harvested area of rice and price of maize. To improve on its rice supply, it is advised that policy measures be devised to couple area expansion with intensification to help mitigate the adverse effect of area expansion on yield, reduce labor shortages through appropriate investment in development of the rural communities (to help minimize rural-urban migration), ensure continuous government support to the sector, maintain fair prices for local rice farmers, and ensure appropriate transmission in times of price increment

Response of rice yields in Ghana: some prescriptions for future rice policy

With local rice production lagging well behind demand as a result of low productivity of farmers’ fields, this study analyzed the response of rice yields in Ghana to major internal and external factors which have direct and indirect effects on production and to producers. Yield of rice was found to increase with producer price of rice, irrigated area, labor availability and world price of rice to producer price of rice ratio. It however decreases with increases in harvested area and price of urea fertilizer due to fertility issues, producer price of maize due to influences from resource allocation, and with nominal rate of assistance due to secondary distortions on input prices. To increase and sustain rice yields, future rice policy measures should couple area expansion with vital intensification measures to help mitigate the adverse impact from sole expansion of area and should as well ensure appropriate transmission of prices with least distortion. Investment should be made towards the initiation and diffusion of low cost water control and irrigation systems across the country and vital measures be devised to reduce labor shortages. In improving the fertility of farmers’ fields, the current fertilizer subsidy structure should be improved upon and measures put in place to improve farmers access to credit as this is a vital issue that needs addressing to ensure appropriate response of farmers to future price and non-price incentive

Response of rice yields in Ghana: some prescriptions for future rice policy

With local rice production lagging well behind demand as a result of low productivity of farmers’ fields, this study analyzed the response of rice yields in Ghana to major internal and external factors which have direct and indirect effects on production and to producers. Yield of rice was found to increase with producer price of rice, irrigated area, labor availability and world price of rice to producer price of rice ratio. It however decreases with increases in harvested area and price of urea fertilizer due to fertility issues, producer price of maize due to influences from resource allocation, and with nominal rate of assistance due to secondary distortions on input prices. To increase and sustain rice yields, future rice policy measures should couple area expansion with vital intensification measures to help mitigate the adverse impact from sole expansion of area and should as well ensure appropriate transmission of prices with least distortion. Investment should be made towards the initiation and diffusion of low cost water control and irrigation systems across the country and vital measures be devised to reduce labor shortages. In improving the fertility of farmers’ fields, the current fertilizer subsidy structure should be improved upon and measures put in place to improve farmers access to credit as this is a vital issue that needs addressing to ensure appropriate response of farmers to future price and non-price incentive